Juan Cole is skeptical of reports that he's fled to Iran. Mark Steyn and Michael Ledeen are certain that Muqtada's in Iran, and claim this as proof that the surge is working.
Oh man, that's a tough one. Who to believe? On one hand, you've got a guy who's been pretty much right about everything having to do with Iraq and Iran over the last four years. On the other, you have Mark Steyn and Michael "Islam is very unpopular in Iran nowadays" Ledeen, whose incredible ability to be wrong about every. last. thing. relating to Iraq and Iran has been matched only by their ability to soldier on without ever seeming to notice.
As Cole notes, it's in Muqtada's political rivals' interest to promote the idea that he has fled to Iran, as Muqtada has frequently condemned leaders who chose exile during the Saddam era, rather than stay in Iraq to struggle and risk death as the Sadrs did. This has proven to be a very effective rhetorical weapon for Muqtada against better-funded rivals like the Hakims.
Labeling Sadr "a Persian stooge" and "an Iranian agent," Steyn and Ledeen seem unable to grasp the reality that Muqtada represents a genuine political movement in Iraq, one rooted in a tradition of clerical activism going back decades. They hide information like this in places called books.
Wherever Muqtada has gone, his dropping out of view and the Mahdi Army's going to ground are exactly what they've done in the past when things got too hot. Then, as now, the Wingnutosphere triumphantly announced the end of the Sadr problem, all glory to the Great Leader. I can't remember how many times Instadeadender has declared Sadr "over," usually taking the opportunity to wax onanistic about the steely steelyness of our "resolve," only to have Muqtada come back a few months later, more popular than ever.
This is a classic case of not expanding our view of the forest beyond the trees. I believe that this "holy war" will only grow to every democratic country's backyard over generations. The free world will have to either fight or be willing to sacrifice many of its liberties. The conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan is holding the extremist fighting in that place for now, but we should be willing to accept the fact that we'll have to fight this war on terror and accept the loss of some of our soldiers without going completely belly up when times get tough. It certainly isn't the time or the excuse to apply political leverage through aggressive cynicism toward our leader or country.
ReplyDeleteLook how apparently stupid our media looks when they take polls like "Do you wish the President's term was over?" or "Here's the President's approval rating?", etc. when this conflict is an issue that will take possibly life times to address. Some problems take long-term solutions rather than instant gratification that fits neatly into a presidential term.