Costa Rica Elects First Woman President

To follow up on yesterday's post, Costa Rica has in fact elected its first woman president. Laura Chinchilla finished with 48.1% of the vote, well above the minimum 40% needed to avoid a runoff. Otton Solis of the PAC finished in second with 25.1%, while Otto Guevara, who some analysts suggested might finish second due to a late surge, finished with 20.9%. Chinchilla's relatively overwhelming victory is somewhat surprising; Abel Pacheco of the PSUC was forced into a run-off in 2002, and in 2006, though Oscar Arias avoided a runoff, he barely won, getting 40.9% of the vote to Solis's 39.8%.

Looking at the previous election, Guevara may be encouraged with his result, as he jumped from 8.5% in 2006 to 20.9% this year. On the flipside, Solis very well may be discouraged, as he dropped nearly 15% in the popular vote with a total drop in votes of almost 200,000 between 2006 and 2010. What is more, this election may have served as a notice that Solis's policies aren't as popular as they once were or that he's simply not quite charismatic enough anymore to win.

As for why Chinchilla was elected, there are probably a variety of factors at play. Certainly, Chinchilla's political skill played a role in her election, and her role as Arias's vice-president and Minister of Justice clearly gave her a high level of visibility and experience. While I never heard her speak, she may have been charismatic, too. Additionally, she may have garnered some of the vote due to a mobilized base that rallied around her identity as a woman. Finally, one can point to the relative economic and political stability Costa Rica has continued to display under Arias, even as other countries in the region have suffered politically and economically. Certainly, Arias's free trade agreements have angered some, but Solis seems to have pinned his hopes on anti-free trade sentiment and a need for "change," and neither apparently mattered to a near majority of the Costa Rican electorate this year. I suspect (though future studies will determine this) that the potential for continued stability played a major role in this year's election, as Chinchilla promised to continue Arias's economic policies.

From here, it will be interesting to see how Chinchilla governs. Some groups have expressed legitimate concerns on her stances on homosexuality and abortion; even if comments and actions she made with regards to these issues during the campaign were political moves, it opens her up to charges of pandering to baser social and political groups in Costa Rican politics. Additionally, if she is unable to keep Costa Rica's economic and political stability going, she will be open to attacks from both Solis's more progressive PAC and Guevara's libertarianism. As president of a party in the center-left (falling very closely to the center), she'll have politicians on either side of her ready to pounce from the left if she makes any errors in economic or social policy. Additionally, where Solis and his PAC (which has been successful in congressional elections) go from here will be worth watching, as will Guevara's efforts to continue to expand his libertarian appeal.

Will Costa Rica to Elect Its First Woman President?

Today, Costa Ricans will go to the polls to elect their next president, and Laura Chinchilla, the candidate for the Partido Libertación (the same party that current-president Oscar Arias represents), stands a decent chance of winning and becoming Costa Rica's first female president.

The Libertación is a center-left (closer to the center) party, and it seems that Chinchilla's fiercest opposition is coming from libertarian Otto Guevara, with Otton Solis of the of the Partido Acción Ciudadana running third. Chinchilla has been running on a platform of "stability," promising to continue Arias's economic policies (including free-trade agreements). Guevara has challenged her by promising to be tough on crime in Costa Rica, an amusing promise from a libertarian who wants a more hands-off approach.

I always enjoy seeing how political failures affect politicians in countries outside of the U.S., and Costa Rica is no exception. Both Guevara and Solis first ran for president when I was in Costa Rica in 2002, forming their own parties for the election and finishing fourth and third (out of 13 candidates), respectively. I'm always pleased to see that, unlike in the U.S., failure in a presidential campaign doesn't bring an end to your presidential aspirations in other countries, and Costa Rica is probably the case I'm most familiar with. Looking at their political positions today, Guevara's appeal makes some sense - there will always be people who identify strongly with libertarians, and with the PUSC's popularity dropping in the wake of corruption scandals, Guevara and his Partido Movimento Libertário offer the strongest alternative for conservative voters.

I'm more surprised at Solis's performance in this campaign, however; when he burst on the scene in 2002, it was as offering a strong third-party alternative to the dominant Libertación and the Partido Unidad Social Cristiano. Solis has been critical of the Central America Free Trade Agreement, and offered a progressive alternative to those (especially young) voters tired of the institutionality of Libertación. I'm not so surprised that the party itself is still around, but it will be curious to see what happens to Solis's political future after tomorrow. While he had a strong showing in 2002 and nearly won the election in 2006, if he finishes third tomorrow, one can't help but think that he'll really have to overhaul his message to appeal to people. And much of this is speculation, too, until the Ticos vote and the results are tallied. In effect, though, they're voting on whether they want to continue down the center-ish path that Arias has forged, whether they want a shift to the right in the name of "fighting crime," or whether they want a progressive alternative to the institutional Libertación party. It will be interesting to watch.