campaign ads

Via Ezra Klein, you can see a Mitt Romney ad.

And then watch Ronald Reagan's 30-minute ad for his successful 1966 run for Governor of California.

The Threat of Mittens and White Resentment

I have thought all along that Mitt Romney was dead in the water as the Republican nominee in 2012. His health care bill, his utter vacuity, and his flip-flopping should make him anathema to Republican primary voters. I still more or less believe this. But someone has to win, don't they? I simply cannot believe it will be Gingrich. Jon Huntsman has no chance because he is not insane and hasn't learned to pander well enough. All signs point to Pawlenty.

However, if Romney somehow manages to pull this out, I do believe he will be a formidable opponent for Obama, presuming there's no serious third party challenge by Ron Paul or some other teabagger that might draw 5% of the vote. Robert Reich suggests one reason why--Romney seems presidential. He has a moderate history, he has good hair, and importantly, according to Reich, he's white:

But I suspect something else is at work here, too. To many voters, President Obama sounds and acts presidential, but he doesn't look it. Mitt Romney is the perfect candidate for people uncomfortable that their president is black. Mitt is their great white hope.

I don't know how persuaded I am by this given that Obama managed to sway a lot of white voters in 2008. But if enough of those voters in key states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, states where Obama has struggled and states with older, white working-class populations, identify with Romney based on race, this could be quite consequential. After all, in the American electoral system, it only takes a relatively small number of voters in the right states to decide an election. And would it really surprise anyone if whiteness was the issue that swayed 2012? Not me anyway.

This also reminds me of the recent findings that a whole lot of whites believe that anti-white bias is a bigger problem in America than anti-black bias. This is, of course, absurd. It's not that hard out there for a cracker after all. But for a struggling white working-class, linking economic problems with white ideology is hardly unusual in American history. This helped seal white supremacy in the late 19th century South, despite some attempts for cross-racial solidarity. It helps us understand the appeal of George Wallace in the North in 1968 and the Reagan Democrats in the 1980s. White Americans have often blamed non-whites or immigrants for their economic problems, opening space for racist politicians to take advantage. And while I'm not going to call Romney racist, I am happy to call the Republican Party racist. Republicans are salivating over playing the race card as strongly as they can in 2012; it may  not be 1952 anymore, but between veiled racism toward blacks and open racism toward immigrants, Republicans have gone all-in as the White Man's Party. Long-term, this is a disastrous strategy. Short-term, there are enough older whites in key Midwestern states that this strategy could work wonders.

Morning in Amerika

It sure does feel good to live in a Maoist state. Health care reform centered around plans that largely originated with Shining Path members like Mitt Romney has fulfilled my dreams of destroying freedom.

Speaking of that, I have to engage in a self-criticism session, so I might be gone for awhile.

Republican Candidate, 2012

It's worth looking ahead to who the Republican presidential candidate might be in 2012.

You might ask, "This is so far away. It's a pointless exercise."

If we were talking about the Democrats, you'd be right. Who could have projected the Obama, Clinton, or Dukakis nominations 4 years before they happened? A few were talking up Obama, but it seemed like 2012 at the earliest. Even John Kerry was far from a given.

On the other hand, when have the Republicans nominated someone outside of their inner circle of expected candidates? McCain, W, Dole, Bush Sr., Reagan, Ford, Nixon, etc. All very expected candidates. I don't quite know enough about the Goldwater candidacy to know whether that is the last time someone came out of nowhere. If not Goldwater, we are looking back to Willikie or Landon. And that's a long time ago.

So who then are the top 5 candidates for the Republican nomination:

5. Bobby Jindal. Oh pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease. The governor of Louisiana, Jindal is a real loon and is totally unelectable. Some Republicans think he's the answer to Obama. That's because he is not white. The similarities end there. This is a man who claimed to run exorcisms in college. Yes, he is the Exorcist. He is a real extremist. The fundies love him. I place him relatively low though because they love Palin more. If Palin really loses her credibility with the base, look for Jindal to rise to #2 on this list.

4. Jeb Bush. Don't count out Jeb. At this point, his name is his biggest negative. How that will play in 4 years remains to be seen. By all accounts, he's a lot smarter than W. He is also fluent in Spanish and has a Latina wife. This would likely bring his numbers up among Latinos, making him a much better candidate in the West than McCain. I'm sure there are those in the party apparatus who would like to see this. Still, the Bush name is a huge negative and although Americans have short memories, it's hard to see him overcoming this.

3. David Petraeus. I don't actually think this will happen, but Petraeus could potentially be the candidate to unite all wings of the party. I don't even know for sure that he is a Republican, though I can't imagine that he is not. Still, unless he really establishes himself as a social conservative, I don't think the evangelicals would go along at this point.

2. Sarah Palin. The base loves her. Bill Kristol, Rich Lowry, and the punditry are in love with her. She has great appeal to the redneck side of the Republican electorate. On the other hand, her political reputation is almost beyond repair with everyone who doesn't love her. And that's like 80% of the nation. If she is the nominee, I fully expect a spate of Republican fundraisers and power brokers to openly support Obama and the electoral map to look like 1964. This is what Rob predicts but I don't think she's likely to win the nomination.

1. Mitt Romney. Romney is going to be the nominee. He's going to have support of all the money. The only way he is not the nominee is a full revolt from the base. Either way, Romney is not a scary candidate because the base is going to be dejected with Mittens and scared of his Mormonism. He is also as exciting as paste. What we are going to see in the next 4 years is a Republican civil war between Romney and Palin. It's going to be fun to watch.

Oh Please Let This Happen

Big buzz for McCain-Mittens! The most inspiring Republican ticket since Dole-Kemp in '96. Mitt is going to inspire the nation just like he did in his presidential candidacy! And hey, it puts Utah firmly in the Republican camp this fall!

McCain's Three Choices

So it seems that McCain's VP choices have come down to Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and Mitt Romney.

If he's smart, he'll go with Crist, which will almost certainly assure him of Florida. Crist is a joke waiting to happen, with all the rumors about his sexual orientation, his absurd tan, etc.

But I really hope McCain goes with Jindal or Romney. Mittens is a ridiculous choice in itself. I can't help but thinking of the McCain campaign as Dole '96 redux. And Mittens would be a perfect Jack Kemp. Totally worthless uninspiring candidate who will bring no one to the ticket but will satisfy the loco wing of the party.

Jindal is even better. They want Jindal because he's not white. And he's really their only choice who is not white. On the other hand, he's totally insane. I really want a VP candidate who runs on creationism, anti-abortion extremism, and other loco positions. A message to the Republicans: just because a candidate is appealing to Louisiana Republicans does not mean he is appealing to the rest of the nation.

But then I hope McCain doesn't listen to me at all. McCain-Jindal '08!

Shorter Romney: How Dare You Accuse Me of Taking a Sensible Position. I Demand an Immediate Apology!!!!

Mitt Romney is demanding an apology from John McCain. Why? McCain accused Romney of having once supported a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.

This shows how utterly out of touch the Republican candidates are with the American people. A majority of the nation wants out of Iraq, either now or very soon. Yet Republicans are fighting to see whose position is closest to a president with an approval rating south of 30%.

Does McCain or Romney really expect to argue in front of the entire electorate that we should stay in Iraq for the long haul? Are they really looking to be the next Barry Goldwater?

Bringing a Spork to a Gun Battle

I'm paraphrasing Kos with that title in his quest to get Michigan Democrats to vote for Mitt Romney in Michigan's open primary. Michigan stupidly moved its Democratic primary up so far that the party stripped the state of all its delegates. Obama and Edwards aren't even contesting the election. So with Michigan having an open primary, why not go vote for the easiest Republican to beat in the general election. It sounds like a good idea to me.

But the real reason for writing about this is that the phrase refers to the idea that this is dirty tricks. I'll quote Kos here.

There are some concerned that this is "dirty tricks" and that we shouldn't "stoop to their level". This is perhaps the key difference between traditional liberals and movement progressives. The former believe that politics is a high-minded debate about ideas, the latter have seen movement conservatives use every tool at their disposal to steal power and cling to it. The problem is, politics matter, and so does the winner of elections. You can't bring a spork to a gun fight, because like Florida 2000, we lose every time. And while some may feel proud their personal ethics weren't compromised and that we "took the high road" through the recount battle, how many thousands of soldiers and Iraqis wish that Democrats had fought a little harder for Gore's victory?

Exactly. What I find remarkable is how many progressives still see themselves outside of the party structure. They hate Bush and complain about how terrible things are and yet don't engage in the easiest way to fix the problem. I was talking to a friend in the summer, someone with a very respectable activist history. He was talking about how he hoped that young people were less partisan than they used to be. I was shocked. Partisanship is what is needed. We need to crush Republicans. Just beat the living hell out of them. If not, they will fuck us, just like they did in Florida, just like Tom DeLay did to the Texas congressional delegation in 2003, just like Republicans try to do all the time all over the nation.

How to stop this? Fight back. Punch them in the mouth. Voting for Romney in Michigan is a great idea. It will both help and embarrass Romney at the same time while also helping Democrats. What could be better than that?

On another note, one thing that irks me about Obama is his attempt to rise above partisanship. If he is just saying this while actually planning to screw over Republicans, then awesome. I would probably vote for him on that alone. But if he is actually wanting to not engage in partisanship, I would be worried whether he could get anything useful done. But that's for another post.

Romney

This is a bit old now, but I love this Boston Globe bit a friend sent to me about Romney and his hunting prowess. (Note: it's below the Obama/Edwards story)

"I want you to know that those small animals can be ferocious," he said. Then Romney pulled out his "trophy" kill: a toy squirrel mounted on a piece of wood. (The squirrel even squeaked, which Romney said was "the sound I heard just before I let it have it.")
On a roll now, Romney continued the joke by saying how disappointed his grandchildren were this year when the Easter Bunny skipped the Romney household.
"He heard I was packin' heat," Romney said, and the room erupted in hearty laughter"

This guy is a serious candidate for President?