Will the Seattle Mariners Lose 100 Games Again This Year?

I'm reading a lot of articles that basically say that it's extremely unlikely. Not because the Mariners are one whit better than last year, but because they can't possibly be worse. Here's Rob Neyer:

Is there reason for hope? Absolutely. Left fielder Michael Saunders and first baseman Justin Smoak, both of whom have been terrible disappointments, are probably going to show some of the talent that made them top prospects. Newcomer Jack Cust and malcontent Milton Bradley should give the M’s decent production from the DH slot.

Elsewhere – and I really can’t stress this strongly enough – most of the Mariners’ hitters will hit better in 2011 than 2010 simply because 1) they’re very unlikely to hit exactly the same, and 2) it would be very difficult for them to hit worse.

Does all this mean the Mariners aren’t going to lose 101 games again? Yeah, it probably does.

I remain skeptical. While it's hard to imagine them actually hitting worse because it would be impossible, it's very easy to imagine the starting pitching and bullpen being worse while the hitting isn't that much better. They remain below average at every single offensive position except Ichiro in RF. Jack Cust is a fringe major leaguer, though one with significant power. The other relatively big pickup, Miguel Olivo, helps with a catcher situation that was abysmal last year, but that's a very limited gain. Justin Smoak could finally hit well at 1B. Actually I kind of expect he will have real improvement. And that would be huge. But I have no faith in Michael Saunders in LF.

In any case, I need a more convincing argument than, "It's hard to be them this bad two years in a row," to believe in the Mariners to lose less than 90-95 games anyway. If not 100.

Why There Shouldn't Even BE A Debate Over the AL Cy Young Award This Year

Posnanski has it covered:

When you compare him [Sabathia] to, say, Felix Hernandez in any way except wins, he falls short. He has thrown fewer innings, given up more runs, given up more hits, has a significantly higher ERA, has walked more batters, has struck out fewer batters, has fewer complete games, does not have a shutout. Those advanced statistics that some people love and other people despise make it very clear hasn't just been better than Sabathia - he has been a lot better. Hernandez's WAR is 5.7/5.9 (Baseball Reference/Fangraphs) while Sabathia's is 4.0. Hernandez's fielding independent numbers are all markedly better than Sabathia. Hernandez has also faced better competition, not least because he has had to face the Yankees three times while Sabathia has gotten to face the Mariners three times. And those Mariners are as bad an offensive team as I can ever remember.

Yes, yes, and yes. It's ridiculous that anybody still needs to say this, but I'll say it again: wins tell us almost nothing. What little useful information we can derive from wins tells us about as much as a team's offensive abilities as it does about a pitcher's abilities. There was a time where wins were a good indicator of a pitcher, but that time is long, long past. Based on any metric, King Felix is this year's AL Cy Young winner, and it's not even close. It's the most open-and-shut case in the Cy Young in a long time.

So of course, don't be remotely surprised if and when the Cy Young voters give it to Sabathia instead.

Does Anybody Else Smell Fire?

Let Cleveland's annual fire-sale and dumping of veterans commence. Something tells me this trade won't be quite as good as the "Felix Fermin-for-Omar Vizquel" trade, though.

Goodbye Ken Griffey

Although it was clearly time, I am saddened by the retirement of Ken Griffey, Jr., also known as the man who saved baseball in Seattle.

Before Griffey arrived on the scene, Major League Baseball's experiment with locating a team in Seattle had been an unmitigated disaster. First there was the one year experiment with the Seattle Pilots before one Bud Selig moved them to Milwaukee. In 1977, Seattle got another chance with the Mariners. And the team was terrible. Just awful year after year. Before Griffey, the team's best players in its history had been the legendary Alvin Davis and Mark Langston. Seattle played in the Kingdome, arguably the worst stadium in the history of the game (though Montreal fans might have something to say about that). No one came to the games. Many people predicted the Mariners would move to Tampa or some other baseball hungry city.

And then along came Ken Griffey, Jr. He was amazing and he was fun. He was 19 years old and a freak of nature. He played center field like a gazelle, making remarkable catches and robbing players of home runs. He had titanic power and a beautiful swing. And he played the game with a smile on his face. All of a sudden, Seattle baseball was fun to watch. Combined with robbing Montreal of Randy Johnson, finally calling up Edgar Martinez from AAA instead of running Jim Presley out there every day, and acquiring a number of other good players, Seattle became a good, if flawed, team.

In 1995, they had a remarkable comeback to take the AL West from the Angels and make the playoffs for the first time in their 18 year history. They faced the Yankees in the first round and came back from New York down 2-0. Thinking the series was over, I went anyway assuming I would watch one game and go home. But then Seattle won. And they won again. And in Game 5, the game went to extra innings. Griffey got on first. Edgar Martinez doubled down the left field line and the speedy Griffey rounded third, scored, and Seattle won the series. It was amazing. Baseball was saved in Seattle. Griffey was in the middle of one of baseball history's greatest careers.

Things didn't stay great forever. Griffey eventually grew a bit distance, felt unloved in Seattle, and wanted to return to his home in Cincinnati. The Mariners agreed and traded him for Mike Cameron. Griffey then proceeded to get hurt year after year. His time with the Reds didn't go well. The Reds didn't win and Cincy fans tended to blame Griffey since he was getting paid so much and was always hurt. Eventually the injuries and the years took their toll. I saw Griffey play CF for the Reds in 2006. It was sad to watch him not come even close to balls he would have snagged in his youth.

Still, I was happy to see him go back to Seattle to close out his career. He shouldn't have come back this year, but that's all forgotten now.

Ken Griffey, Jr. was a great player. He played during the Steroid Era but no one ever accused this freak of an athlete of cheating. When he was healthy, he was amazing. And when he was hurt, he didn't roid up to return. He is the best player I have ever seen on my home team. He will probably be the first person to go into the Hall of Fame as a Mariner (it could be Edgar Martinez but I'm not sure he'll ever have the votes. Meanwhile, Randy Johnson will probably enter as a Diamondback).

I almost feel as though an epoch of my life has now concluded. The greatest player of my high school and college days has left the game. I guess millions of baseball fans have felt the same way as Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays and so many others have retired. Part of being a baseball fan is immersing yourself in the history. That means eventually you become part of the memories of past glories yourself. I never truly felt that way until this moment.

Hall of Fame Ballot for 2010 Induction

Baseball came out with its inductee-nomination list for Hall of Fame induction in 2010. Newcomers to the list include Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, in addition to players who were good enough to make the list and nowhere near good enough to even sniff the Hall (Ellis Burks and Kevin Appier, for example).

Firstly, Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven absolutely belong in the Hall, and hopefully, this question is rectified this year. I also would put McGwire in - maybe not this year, but eventually. As has become increasingly apparent, steroids were simply part of the game for 15 years, and while I hate that fact, hatred won't undo it; if as many people "juiced" as it now seems, then there's still no denying that McGwire was one of the best at that time.

As for the newcomers, Alomar should be a lock for certain; he was, simply put, one of the greatest all-around second basemen ever, a marvel to watch at the plate and in the field. I imagine some still hold it against him for the John Hirschbeck incident in 1996, but Hirschbeck forgave Alomar a long time ago; baseball writers hopefully have done the same.

I would also put Edgar Martinez in. I'm tired of the stupid "there should/shouldn't be a DH" argument. It's been over 30 years, and it's a part of the game, whether people like it or not. I just can't justify keeping a position that is legitimate within the rulebook out of the Hall of Fame, and there is absolutely no question that Martinez was the greatest DH ever up to this point. Even if you don't like that he never played in the field, it's just really hard to deny the power of his numbers (he's one of eight players who has career stats of over 300 homers, 500 doubles, a career BA of over .300, on-base percentage of .400, and slugging of .500; certainly, those aren't definitive stats, but neither are they anything to shrug off). Additionally, it was in no way his fault that Seattle let him spend years languishing in the minors just because Jim Presley was occupying third base. I suspect of the newcomers who stand a legitimate chance of eventual election, Martinez will be the most controversial, but for my money, he should be in.

If you'd asked me 5 years ago if McGriff should be in the Hall, I'd say no way. He was very good, but not great, and really, that quest for his 500th homer was kind of sad. But five years' perspective, particularly in light (again) of the steroids issue, have changed my stance somewhat. I'm still not sure he should get in, but his name has never been tied to steroids, and his figure certainly didn't seem to indicate his abuse of PEDs. It may be an inconsistency on my part (and somebody may eventually make an argument that makes me change my mind), but to my way of thinking, for the past 20 years, whether a player used PEDs shouldn't enter into the equation of election, but if players didn't use them, that actually should be considered. Put another way - McGwire's numbers were ridiculous, even with the PEDs, and he was amazing in the 90s (and much better than David Segui, who also used steroids); however, Dawson's (or perhaps McGriff's) numbers were so close without PEDs, I think there's also a case to be made there for their numbers without PEDs. This isn't to say I absolutely believe McGriff should get in; it will take convincing. But I'm not nearly as unconvinced now as I was five years ago.

Being a Cleveland/AL guy from Ohio, I was aware that Barry Larkin was in Cincinnati, and that he was apparently very good, but I just don't know if he was that good. I do look forward to statistical breakdowns on him, and analysis, and debate. Still, he's the second-best second-baseman in this year's eligible class; if Larkin gets in, I may or may not be OK with that, but I think Alomar belongs in first.

It will be fun to watch the debates erupt over this, hopefully breaking the monotony known as "football and basketball season" between now and spring training. I don't think it will end up this way, but if it were up to me, Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Mark McGwire, Roberto Alomar, and Edgar Martinez would be getting into the Hall of Fame in 2010.

More Ichiro Greatness

The great Ichiro strikes again.

Last night, he became the first player ever to have nine consecutive 200 hit seasons. The old record holder was Hall of Famer Wee Willie Keeler, who did this between 1894 and 1901. Second on the list is Wade Boggs. Again, anyone who thinks Ichiro is not a hall of famer is insane. He's in elite company. He may or may not get to 3000 hits, but if he doesn't, the only reason is because he played in Japan for so long before coming over to the U.S. Statisticians have projected that if Ichiro started in the U.S. when he was young, he'd likely threaten Pete Rose's all-time record. And that's without sucking for years but putting himself in the game because he was managing as well as playing.

Anyway, I know my posts lack in Ichiro-worship, so I thought I'd try to make up for it a little.

Bedard

Seattle Mariners pitcher Erik Bedard is unlikely to pitch next year after surgery for a torn labrum.

USS Mariner calls the trade bringing Bedard in last winter the worst in franchise history. Basically, we traded our entire farm system, along with the excellent reliever George Sherrill, to the Orioles for two years of Bedard. He wasn't any good in Seattle, was a pain in the ass in the clubhouse, wouldn't talk to the media, and then got hurt. He will be a free agent at the end of next season. For 80 innings of crappiness, the Mariners gave up three amazing prospects that they desperately need to rebuild from one of the worst seasons in franchise history. The Mariners were supposed to compete for the AL West title this year, though that was clearly ridiculous, even in April. Instead, they are trying not to lose 100 games.

Truthfully, the Mariners have a long history of making terrible trades--trading a couple of bums named Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe to the Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb, trading Danny Tartabull to Kansas City for Scott Bankhead. So it remains to be seen if the Bedard trade is worse.

But in any case, this season sucks and I am glad it is almost over. The only redeeming thing is that Ichiro got 200 hits last night for the 8th straight season, tying the all-time record of consecutive 200 hit seasons set by Wee Willie Keeler between 1894 and 1901. Assuming he doesn't get hurt, we can expect him to break that record next year. Ichiro!

PS--I knew I was forgetting one horrible trade of the past. Walking to the office I remembered when the Mariners traded Carlos Guillen to Detroit for Ramon Santiago because they thought Guillen was a bad influence on Freddy Garcia. I wonder what happened to that Guillen fellow...

Remind Me Why I Root For This Team Again?

It seems that the Seattle Mariners have traded Adam Jones and others to Baltimore for Erik Bedard.
Bedard is a good pitcher. Him and Felix give the Mariners a pretty good rotation. But players like Adam Jones come along for a team maybe twice in ten years if you are lucky. He is the best prospect the Mariners have had since Alex Rodriguez. He is going to be a special player for a very long time.

So why trade him? Bill Bavasi is desperate. He knows that he is still working for his job. Now that the Mariners luckily had a good season last year, despite a terrible run-scoring differential, expectations are high. If they suck again this year, he will be gone. So he makes the trade to save his job. Which it probably will do for a year or two. But that's all. Not only does Seattle have to resign Bedard, but he is several years older than Jones. His peak time is already here. In 3 years, Jones is going to be a monster. But Bavasi is an old-time baseball guy. He holds to the adage that you can't have enough pitching. This is absurd as you can find functional pitching far easier than consistent hitting. They may not have the next Bedard in their system but they sure as hell don't have the next Adam Jones.

Plus, the Mariners are not going to be a good offensive or defensive team this year. It's Ichiro, Beltre, and a whole lot of question marks. With AJ and some sketchy pitching, they are probably an 81 win team. Now they might win 86. But they still aren't going to the playoffs. And they still don't have any kind of sensible long-term plan for winning.

Sigh.

My Frustrating Night with the Seattle Mariners

Unfortunately, I witnessed Seattle getting swept by Texas in a doubleheader at the Ballpark. This was not good. A few points:

1. Raul Ibanez is a horrific left fielder. After watching the defensive stylings of Adam Dunn last year in Cincinnati, I thought I had probably seen the worst left fielder I would ever see. Not so sure now. Travis Metcalf (yes, the legendary Travis Metcalf) managed to hit a broken bat triple thanks to Ibanez's "defense." A speedy LF might have caught the ball. Ibanez thought he could. Of course, he was wrong. The ball bounced off the wall and well away from him. Metcalf scored on a Michael Young double two batters later. The play probably didn't cost the Mariners a run. But it certainly could have.

2. Willie Bloomquist sucks. Seattle gets the first two runners on top of the 5th in game 2. Seattle calls for a Bloomquist sacrifice. Of course, not only can he not get the bunt down but he misses the ball entirely, leaving Yuniesky Betancourt out to dry between 2nd and 3rd. Bloomquist then singles, which would have loaded the bases. After an Ichiro strikeout, Jose Vidro singles, scoring Jamie Burke from 2nd. That should have been a 2 run single. Bloomquist costs Seattle a run.

3. Terrible bullpen management. I hate the idea that any lefty out of the pen should only pitch to lefties. With 2 outs in the bottom of the 7th, with the game tied at 3, Mariners manager John McLaren brings on George Sherrill, who has been utterly dominant this year. He quickly retires the batter. Then in the 8th, with a righty leading off, McLaren brings in the terrible Chris Reitsma. For some reason, Mariners management has believed all season that Reitsma should be the top set up guy. Luckily, he was hurt for awhile and the bullpen thrived. Not now. Reitsma quickly gives up a run and the game.

Why do managers believe in this super-specialization dogma? Why not use the man who is clearly your best set-up man for more than 1 batter? It just makes no sense.

It was a very frustrating evening.

A Glorious Day for the Seattle Mariners

It's rare to say that I am happy to be a Mariners fan. But yesterday was truly a great day.

1. Ichiro wins the All-Star game MVP after hitting an inside the park home run.

2. Reports come out that Ichiro is on the verge of signing a 5 year, 100 million dollar contract to stay in Seattle. This would keep him through his first 12 years as a major leaguer, meaning he would probably retire in Seattle and go into the Hall of Fame as a Mariner.

3. Reports also come out that the Mariners are calling up Adam Jones, their top prospect and benching the horrible Jose Vidro. This probably moves Raul Ibanez to DH, getting his iron glove out of LF and replacing with a batter who seems clearly ready.

4. The Mariners start the second half 13 games over .500 and 2 1/2 behind the Angels for the AL West lead.

5. The Yankees suck.

It's still hard to imagine Seattle competing for the playoffs. But at least for right now, it feels really good to be a Mariners fan. As one of the writers for USS Mariner says, "As a lifelong Mariner fan, I’m used to finding a pot of crap at the end of the rainbow. I like this better."

Indeed!

"Is this heaven?"

I usually stay away from Mariners blogging - that's Erik's specialty - but I will intrude here this once. Last year, in one of their "heartwarming power of sports" stories, Sportscenter ran a bit on Katie Morris, a 12-year-old M's fan from Powell Butte, Oregon, who managed to get to go to Safeco Field with all of her little league teammates and meet the M's, thanks to the Make-A-Wish foundation. While ESPN often runs these stories, this one was particularly touching, given Katie's strength and determination. I'm not sure I could be as courageous with cancer at 60 as she was at 12, and it was really a great story.

Apparently, Katie lost her struggle with cancer last week. Keep rooting for the M's wherever you are, Katie.

Historical Image of the Day

The great Ichiro Suzuki