I Blame Joe Girardi

This never would have happened if only Fausto Carmona had pitched instead of Phil Hughes.

Does Anybody Else Smell Fire?

Let Cleveland's annual fire-sale and dumping of veterans commence. Something tells me this trade won't be quite as good as the "Felix Fermin-for-Omar Vizquel" trade, though.

Baseball Predictions: Playoffs

ALDS: New York (in three) vs. Minnesota
Baseball is the sport of sustained miracles, and that is what it will take for the Central's division winner to beat the Yankees. I'm not ruling the Central completely out; I give the Yankees only a 99.9% chance of winning this. It won't even be close, though, and I'm imagining sweep here.

ALDS: Boston (in five) vs. Texas
I'm going to give the advantage here to the experienced Red Sox, but Texas will make it very interesting.

NLDS: Philadelphia (in four) vs. L.A.
L.A.'s inconsistencies and flaws will be completely victimized by a much better Phillies team. L.A. under Torre's leadership will keep it close in one game, but the series won't be close.

NLDS: Atlanta (in five) vs. St. Louis
In many ways, this would be a dream matchup - the up and coming Heyward vs. Pujols; LaRussa vs. Cox (in his last year). I think Cox's skill (direct or indirect) with pitchers is the outcome in this, as St. Louis's record will look better than it really is after they get the pleasure of beating on the Pirates and Astros all season. Braves on to the NLCS.

ALCS: New York (in 7) over Boston.
I hate to do this, but I think the Yankees take Boston again, and I expect it to be lopsided. Yankee wins will be massacres; Boston wins will be close, great games. I just can't see Boston's starters keeping them in it for four games total, and while the Yankees' bullpen seems weaker than Boston's, I'm going to fall back on Erik's Theory of Balanced Evils. Whatever the outcome, it will go 7 games; with a Democrat in the office, I'm giving it to New York.

NLDS: Philadelphia (in 5) over Atlanta.

The usual criticisms of Cox's failure to reach/win the World Series will be muted as he leaves, and he will go out as one of the all-time greats. However, Philadelphia will continue its regular-season dominance of the Braves in the playoffs, and the youth and inexperience of Atlanta will finally betray the Braves. Plus, Halladay was scary enough in the AL; he should be a real terror in the NL, and especially the playoffs. Phillies to the World Series, lining up a re-match of the 2009 Series.

World Series: Philadelphia Phillies over New York Yankees (in six).
This is where the rematch of 2009 plays out differently. With Halladay at the front end of that rotation, I'm giving it to the Phillies. New York's bullpen is spottier than Philly's, and Halladay has already proven he can be a Yankee killer. New York will make a run, but Philadelphia is going to be aided by home-field advantage, and with Halladay potentially playing 3 times (after resting a few days after his 5-game LCS while New York and Boston thrash each other across 7 games), he'll be the difference, and the Phillies win it in 6 this year.

Tomorrow: random fun predictions for the baseball season.

Erik's 2010 Baseball Predictions

My life has been completely insane for the last month. But things are settling down and I'll be back blogging.

I'll start with my 2010 baseball predictions.

AL East
1. Tampa 95-67
2. Boston 94-68
3. New York 92-70
4. Baltimore 76-84
5. Toronto 75-87

Tampa and Boston are both well put together teams. Obviously, I'm projecting New York in 3rd partially out of wishful thinking. But it's important to remember how incredibly lucky the Yankees were last year. Other than Alex Rodriguez missing the start of the season, they had no injuries to speak of. Moreover, their old players all had great years. Posada turned back what seemed to be inevitable decline. Jeter had one of the best years of his career. Rivera is of course timeless. All the new guys worked out well. They were really good, but also really lucky. I don't see that luck holding this year. They are very old. That said, they are still really good. I like the Granderson trade, Teixeira is awesome, and the pitching staff should be good enough. Baltimore is improving but a year away from being a .500 team. Toronto could be better than people expect because they have real mashers in Lind and Snider. But the pitching staff is obviously shaky without Halladay. Nonetheless, they did very well for themselves in their offseason trades.

AL Central
1. Minnesota 84-78
2. Chicago 82-80
3. Detroit 81-81
4. Cleveland 73-87
5. Kansas City 71-89

The division of blah. I don't think losing Joe Nathan is a huge deal, so that's why I have them still in 1st. Obviously Chicago or Detroit could sneak in there, but those are aging teams. Cleveland and Kansas City are a long ways away.

AL West
1. Texas 89-73
2. Seattle 84-78
3. Anaheim 81-81
4. Oakland 75-87

The trendy pick this year is for my Mariners. While I love everything they've done since firing Bavasi (though they should have gotten more for Brandon Morrow than Brandon League), they overachieved like crazy last year. This year, they put together the best team they could with the existing market. I love that team, but I don't think that makes them much better than last year. Given their overachievement last year, particularly when considered in terms of run differential, they could be better than last year and have about the same record. This team is built around Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee being lights out and Lee is already banged up and on the DL. While they could have an amazing pitching staff in the 2nd half if Erik Bedard comes back strong, they won't score many runs. By which I mean virtually zero. I expect a lot of Ichiro getting on and Figgins getting him to 2nd or 3rd and then 3 straight outs. And really, that's kind of OK given where they were 2 years ago.

Meanwhile, Texas is coming together as a strong team, though I find the pitching staff with much to prove. Anaheim lost an awful lot. Replacing John Lackey with Joel Pineiro is not a good switch. Some believe Oakland could be good. I am not one of them.

NL East
1. Philadelphia 99-63
2. Atlanta 88-74
3. Florida 87-75
4. New York 78-84
5. Washington 70-92

Philadelphia is probably the best team in the game this year. Atlanta and Florida are also both on the rise. New York is a mess. I would say that I can't imagine Omar Minaya lasting the year, but this is the Mess we are talking about. Washington is slowly improving but is so far away.

NL Central
1. St. Louis 94-68
2. Cincinnati 82-80
3. Chicago 81-81
4. Milwaukee 80-82
5. Pittsburgh 75-87
6. Houston 70-92

St. Louis is the cream of the division. However, the Reds are massively improved and have a very exciting young team. Both the Cubs and Brewers could theoretically compete, but I am skeptical. The Pirates are slowly getting on the right track. The Astros are a disaster--old but still trying to compete, and with arguably the worst GM and the worst farm system in the game. They will be bad for a long time.

NL West
1. Colorado 87-75
2. San Francisco 84-78
3. Los Angeles 83-79
4. Arizona 79-83
5. San Diego 77-85

I like the Rockies quite a bit. Now that they have figured out how to win in that stadium, they have a very competitive team. The Giants have amazing pitching, but can't hit. They are much like the Mariners, except they aren't quite as good (no Ichiro there!) and their division is significantly easier. Los Angeles could be be good but there are too many off field distractions. It's rare to see a team like Arizona--so many amazing prospects 4-5 years ago and almost none of them turned out to be as good as advertised. The Angels are a bit like this too and starting to suffer because of it. San Diego played great at the end of last year, but they are a bit overmatched.

While I'm sure I'm wrong about much of this, I only hope to be less wrong than Trend.

Trend's Baseball Predictions - The National League

With AL predictions out of the way, it's time to move on to the NL. I think there will be a much greater division between the good and the bad here (no completely-mediocre division like the AL Central). Here are my predictions.

NL East
1. Philadelphia (95-67)

2. Atlanta* (89-73)
3. NY Mets (87-75)
4. Florida (77-85)
5. Washington (68-92)

Few changes to last year's NL Champions, except they now have the (healthy) Roy Halladay rather than the (hurt) Cliff Lee, and they have him for the whole season; this should be a wash (though they play the games for a reason). I think Atlanta's going to be an absolute blast, this year; they have again returned to an extremely solid lineup of young (and good) pitching, and Jason Heyward looks so exciting. And I'm not usually an "intangibles" guy, and certainly Bobby Cox is downplaying this being his last year of coaching, but he is a coaching genius, and I think the players, inadvertently or not, may end up going above and beyond the call of duty for Cox's last year, giving the team just enough to make the playoffs. I could be wrong, and perhaps it's almost too perfect, but this just seems right for this year; I think the planets (and the young talent) will line up perfectly for Atlanta. The Mets are....the Mets. I think they'll be healthier this year, but I don't think that will be enough, and given that they've seem to taken on the "Indians-lite" identity in terms of heartbreak, and I expect their fans' hearts will be broken late once again. I know Florida finished last year 87-75; I admit to knowing little about them, but even on paper, they look better than 77-85. I'm just going with my gut (as well as the suspicion that an injury here or there will hurt them much more than other teams), and putting them lower this year. And Washington...well, at least they are back on a path of rebuilding with direction, having cleaned out the front office and putting the Bowden/Dominican player-ripoff issues behind them. And they can look forward to Stephen Strasburg playing in the not-too-distant future, too.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71)
2. Cincinnati Reds (84-78)
3. Chicago Cubs (80-82)
4. Milwaukee (78-84)
5. Pittsburgh (72-90)
6. Houston (71-91)

I don't know why, but I continuously find this the least captivating division in baseball. The Cubs saga is beyond tired (and predictable); the Cardinals are almost boringly-good, and between their pitching, LaRussa's skill, and Pujols and Holliday in the middle of the lineup, I expect them to take it yet again (and I don't think McGwire will be a distraction - indeed, I suspect the offense may be better under him). Cincinnati could very well be in the push for the Wild Card towards the end, but I don't think they have quite enough. Milwaukee could be a dark horse, though I don't think they have quite enough pieces for a late-season push. Pittsburgh will once again finish below .500, but I think the fact that they finally seem to have some direction and vision in how they're putting that team together should bring hope to fans (and I say this as somebody who's tried to find hope since he was aware sports existed). And I admit to knowing little about Houston's farm system, but they didn't have any pieces last year, they didn't make any big moves this offseason, and I haven't really heard of any young studs coming up from their farm system. I could be surprised, but right now, at least, I expect them to be pretty bad yet again.

NL West
1. Los Angeles (90-72)
2. Colorado (87-75)
3. San Francisco (87-75)
4. Arizona (76-86)
5. San Diego (75-87)

This should be baseball's most competitive (good) division. The Giants showed a lot of surprise for people last year, and will make a push for the Wild Card and Division. The Dodgers are another year older, and there are some important question marks in their lineup and pitching staff, but this should be pretty easy compared to the crap Torre had to put up with in NY. If Troy Tulowitzki stays healthy and that young pitching staff can stay as good as they were last year, they'll be in the thick of things. I think Arizona and San Diego are still too far off, but both will make things complicated for the other three as their young stars start to bloom. I think Colorado/San Francisco are left out of the Wild Card because the West is tough, while Atlanta should be able to beat up on Washington and Florida with relative ease. This will be a really fun division to watch through the year, though.

Tomorrow, playoff predictions.

Trend's Baseball Predictions - The American League

As America's annual national nightmare finally comes to an end tomorrow night, it seems like a good time to embarrass myself again by trying to predict how the baseball season will shake down, with the AL today, NL predictions tomorrow, and playoff predictions on Monday.

AL East

1. New York Yankees (98-64)
2. Boston Red Sox* (94-68)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (88-74)
4. Baltimore Orioles (84-78)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (72-90)

It kills me to pick the Yankees, but they looked really good last year, even with distractions (questions about Rodriguez's use of performance enhancers, the usual Steinbrenner-lite distractions), and I don't see them failing to replicate that performance this year. I'm not yet convinced Burnett will be as good as he was last year, but he proved me wrong last year, so who knows. Yes, they're another year older, but they just look really strong. Red Sox are right behind them, I think. I'm curious to see how the small-ball approach they seem to be taking will work out in Fenway; I don't think it will fail, but I am interested in seeing if it's a noticeable difference from the days of Ramirez-[good] Ortiz-Drew-Lowell. The Rays suffer from being in a really, really good division; I think they'll be game, but just won't make it this year. The Orioles have done a great job assembling a young corps of hitters, and it looks like pitching is finally catching up, too (in a 100%-related story: Peter Angelos is keeping his mitts off the everyday-decisions). They in no way will make a run for the title or even the Wild Card, but they will really make things interesting and tough for the rest of the division. Meanwhile, I expect the Jays' rebuilding efforts to not be enough to overcome their raw talent, and it will be a typical losing-season for rebuilding teams.

AL Central

1. Minnesota (86-76)
2. Detroit (84-78)
3. Chicago (84-78)
4. Kansas City (83-79)
5. Cleveland (80-82)

This is the toughest division to pick, just because it's just such a high rate of mediocrity. Nobody jumps out as an obvious choice to win the division; Minnesota is missing a closer, the Sox don't have a lot of offense, there are some real questions about the back-end of the Tigers' rotation and their bullpen's health, the Royals are an enigma in the hitting and the non-Greinke pitching areas, and the Indians are rebuilding. This will probably be the weakest division in all of baseball; I expect nobody to emerge here, as well as other divisions to take advantage and pound the Central. I'm going to go with Minnesota, just because their issues seem the slightest within the Central. I expect Ozzie Guillen to be increasingly frustrated with what will probably be a lot of 2-1 losses. I can't even begin to figure out Detroit, especially after that collapse last year. I'd even say the Indians are going to be completely out of the running, but with spring suggesting that Hafner, Sizemore, and (most importantly) Carmona back in their old forms, the chance for LaPorta and Brantley to start getting regular starts, and an arsenal of young hitters and arms who could be called up later in the season, it's impossible to even completely rule out the Indians (though it seems highly unlikely). Even if they are terrible this year, I like that we apparently have the only manager who cites VORP in his decisions when talking to journalists. Overall, I think it will be a close race to the end, much like last year, and given the mediocrity of each team on paper, I wouldn't be surprised to see all five teams actually in it until the end. That's not to say any one looks good or the division is that good; quite the opposite, in fact. Still, if things play out the way they seem they could (and they probably won't), it will be entertaining until the bitter end, when the "winner" can go on and get swept out of the ALDS.

AL West
1. Texas (90-72)
2. Anaheim (89-73)
3. Seattle (87-75)
4. Oakland (71-91)

I was all set to put Seattle on the top of this list, but then Lee got hurt with the same type of injury that ended up derailing his 2007 season, and I couldn't do it. I think it will be a really close race in this division, with Seattle and Anaheim in contention throughout, but I think the Rangers may have it in them this year. Oakland is going to be game, but I just think don't have it in them, and as long as they're playing in Al Davis's mausoleum, the Raiders' stink is going to affect them. That said, I don't have a lot of conviction on the Rangers, and I suspect that whoever wins it, it will go down to the wire.

If Spring Training Were the Determining Factor...

...and if it only came down to numbers, and if all of the realities of baseball suddenly vanished...


...I'd pick the Indians over the Rays in the ALCS, and the Giants over the Braves in the NLCS, with the Giants beating the Indians in the World Series again (after the 1954 debacle, which, coincidentally, was SF's last title). If only the old adage that "spring training means nothing" weren't true. *Sigh*


Oh, and incidentally, the Indians currently have 14 wins in Spring Training. I'm putting the over/under date on them getting 14 wins in the regular season at May 19, due in no small part to a brutal April that involves 15 road games (including a west coast road trip) and only 7 home games to start off the season.

More seriously, regular season baseball predictions (because I'm so good at these things) will be coming next week.

Baseball Blogging - Using Calendars to Extend Prospects' Time with a Team

Tony at the Indians Prospect Insider has a great post up about managing the time of young players who could play in Triple-A or in the Majors. Basically, the issue revolves completely around the idea of the service time clock:

In baseball, 172 days on the big league roster is considered one year of major league service time. Obviously, a major league season is longer than 172 days, so a player only needs to be on an active 25-man roster (or big league disabled list) for 172 days of what usually is a 180 day or so season. After a player reaches three full seasons of service time they become arbitration eligible (a select few become arbitration eligible before three years, but I won't go into that here). After six full seasons of service time a player then becomes a free agent.

Managing service time is a vital piece of roster management for big league teams and is something that every team does in one way or another. It is a way to control when a player reaches free agency, and in cases of good decision making with how a team rosters a player they can delay free agency as many as one to three years for that player. The player has no control over this as they are at the mercy of their team on how their roster situation is handled (or you can say manipulated), and is also why when these guys do finally reach free agency you will get no complaining from me when they get multi-year deals for millions of dollars.

While Tony uses particular Indians prospects (like Mike Brantley and Luis Valbuena) to explain exactly how that system could work, it's well worth checking out for anybody, because while the particulars of players may vary, the ideas and approaches are general, and very important for small-market teams. Basically, Tony demonstrates how leaving a prospect at the minors for the first 2-3 months of the season can reap enormous benefits for small-market teams, and not just because they get to spend another 2-3 months refining the skill sets that prospects need to work on. It has great benefits for teams that are operating in small windows with prospects becoming stars:

This is why teams should almost never open the season with a high profile rookie on the big league roster. Putting them in Triple-A and waiting three to four weeks before calling them up in late April or early May provides a team an extra year of control. We’ve seen many teams do this in the past, most recently the Tampa Bay Rays with Evan Longoria and the San Francisco Giants with Tim Lincecum. This is why at the minimum, guys who have yet to have their service clock started such as outfielder Jordan Brown, infielder Jason Donald, right-handed pitcher Hector Rondon, and Carlos Santana should open the season in Columbus even if they are deemed “ready”.

This is just good business for any organization as they finagle the service time clocks with guys and push off free agency as long as they can. The pickup of Branyan himself may not have made much sense, but the idea of signing someone in order to push Brantley to Triple-A to give the Indians a whole extra year of control for a core piece of the team the next half decade or so is good roster management. This is something small market teams need to do in order to extend the life of a young players’ career with them before they ultimately reach free agency.

While I find the use of the phrase "to control" to be a bit heavy-handed, I suppose it is also accurate, and worth keeping in mind that while teams may play with their prospects' emotions and incomes, small-market teams also have a financial investment in this, and if prospects really turn out to be that good, the payday will come no matter what. At any rate, the entire post is worth reading (especially if anybody is in a fantasy league that includes minor league players; after all, the Indians have 5 of Baseball America's 65 top prospects in their system this year, putting them only behind the Tampa Bay Rays), and I highly recommend you pop over there.

Yet Another Reason Cleveland Indians Fans Can Be Hopeful

With just 27 days until pitchers and catchers report (thus ending America's annual national nightmare), I'm already getting geared up for the 2010 season. And while the Indians' 2010 title hopes are effectively dead on arrival, I'm looking forward to seeing how Manny Acta manages, and seeing how the potential of some of the young players like Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana (not that one) plays out. A lot of the guys the Tribe will be calling up this year already makes me hopeful for the future. What else makes me hopeful for the future?

This list.

Sure, it's just one list, but I have to say, even with all of the heartbreaking trades, in spite of the fact that the Indians have not won a World Series in 61 (and this year will most certainly be 62) years, the fact that the Indians are coming off the loss of two Cy Young winners and the arguable heart of the team with one of the strongest farm systems makes me hopeful. If nothing else, I, unlike a Pittsburgh or Baltimore fan (sorry drip), can rest easy knowing that the Cleveland Indians are run intelligently. And maybe the experience of 2010 will get the youth movement ready for a 2011 playoff push....