Why We Lost

Well it looks really really bad. Maybe there's still a shot in Ohio but assuming there's not, here's my analysis of why we lost. And hell, even if we win here's some issues we have to work on. No use crying I guess so here's some analysis:

1. Gay marriage was huge. I don't think we can overestimate how big this was. Whether a state was voting on a gay marriage amendment or not, the specter of gay marriage brought out evangelicals in numbers that are even higher than 2000. This didn't get a lot of play before the election as a major issue but I think we will find out that it was vital to Bush's victory.

2. Patriotism among minority groups. Of course Kerry won the minority groups but not by as large of margins as Gore did in 2000. For some black and especially Latino families with a family member in the military, I think a connection was made between a vote for the president and a vote for what that family member was doing. It may have been enough to make a difference in some states, particularly New Mexico if we lose it.

3. Most Americans don't give a shit about the economy unless they are directly and majorly affected. This may be the lesson from Ohio if we do in fact lose it. If an economy is really bad and they blame the president for their job loss and the other candidate has a credible plan to change the economy, I think people will vote out an incumbent based on the economy. Otherwise, for a lot of people it's not that important when compared to gay marriage or patriotism. And no one almost at all gives a shit about the deficit.

4. The Democrats need a candidate who can talk to white working class voters in their own language. John Kerry couldn't do that. Even though his programs made sense and even though he turned out to be an excellent debater, he just can't relate to white rural voters in West Virginia, Missouri, or Ohio, states that we should be winning. We must do a better job attracting rural voters.

Two final thoughts:

1. The downfall of the Democratic party is in identity politics. I hate to say this because what part of identity politics hasn't been more or less correct. But nonetheless I believe it to be true.

2. What's really depressing is that this was a loss with a candidate clearly superior to Gore, with Nader as an irrelevancy, with a party more united than it has been since perhaps the New Deal, with a ton of money, and with an unpopular war and mediocre economy. And we still lost. Fuck.

After I get some sleep, a post on why we win blow the Republicans out in 2008.