Monday, April 23, 2007

Global Warming: Example #2849

Generally, many parts of Brazil, especially in the rural tropical areas, face the chance of a dengue fever outbreak in their area, and such epidemics generally make the news. However, a recent epidemic is making particular news here in Brazil, not just in the media and the medical community, but among the environmentalists and climatologists here. There has been an outbreak of dengue in Rio Grande do Sul, which is Brazil's southern-most state, located on the border with Argentina and Urugay, well below the Tropic of Capricorn and one of the few areas in Brazil that is subject to cool autumns and colder winters (no snow, but periodically in the 30s Fahrenheit).

What does an epidemic in Brazil's southern-most state have to do with global warming? Well, it's simple - for the first time in recorded history, it is warm enough in Rio Grande do Sul that the mosquito that carries dengue has not yet died. In the past, the South was already getting into the 50s and 40s (Fahrenheit) by this time, but the temperature have gradually increased over the last 15 years, so that now, the temperatures have been in mid-80s well beyond when they should have, and reflect the broad warming patterns in Brazil's southern-most region (and throughout the country more broadly).Combine things like this with other recent disasters, including the increasing temperatures and the first hurricane to ever form in the Southern Atlantic in 2004, it offers reminders of how much trouble we are in.