Monday, April 05, 2010

Baseball Predictions: Playoffs

ALDS: New York (in three) vs. Minnesota
Baseball is the sport of sustained miracles, and that is what it will take for the Central's division winner to beat the Yankees. I'm not ruling the Central completely out; I give the Yankees only a 99.9% chance of winning this. It won't even be close, though, and I'm imagining sweep here.

ALDS: Boston (in five) vs. Texas
I'm going to give the advantage here to the experienced Red Sox, but Texas will make it very interesting.

NLDS: Philadelphia (in four) vs. L.A.
L.A.'s inconsistencies and flaws will be completely victimized by a much better Phillies team. L.A. under Torre's leadership will keep it close in one game, but the series won't be close.

NLDS: Atlanta (in five) vs. St. Louis
In many ways, this would be a dream matchup - the up and coming Heyward vs. Pujols; LaRussa vs. Cox (in his last year). I think Cox's skill (direct or indirect) with pitchers is the outcome in this, as St. Louis's record will look better than it really is after they get the pleasure of beating on the Pirates and Astros all season. Braves on to the NLCS.

ALCS: New York (in 7) over Boston.
I hate to do this, but I think the Yankees take Boston again, and I expect it to be lopsided. Yankee wins will be massacres; Boston wins will be close, great games. I just can't see Boston's starters keeping them in it for four games total, and while the Yankees' bullpen seems weaker than Boston's, I'm going to fall back on Erik's Theory of Balanced Evils. Whatever the outcome, it will go 7 games; with a Democrat in the office, I'm giving it to New York.

NLDS: Philadelphia (in 5) over Atlanta.

The usual criticisms of Cox's failure to reach/win the World Series will be muted as he leaves, and he will go out as one of the all-time greats. However, Philadelphia will continue its regular-season dominance of the Braves in the playoffs, and the youth and inexperience of Atlanta will finally betray the Braves. Plus, Halladay was scary enough in the AL; he should be a real terror in the NL, and especially the playoffs. Phillies to the World Series, lining up a re-match of the 2009 Series.

World Series: Philadelphia Phillies over New York Yankees (in six).
This is where the rematch of 2009 plays out differently. With Halladay at the front end of that rotation, I'm giving it to the Phillies. New York's bullpen is spottier than Philly's, and Halladay has already proven he can be a Yankee killer. New York will make a run, but Philadelphia is going to be aided by home-field advantage, and with Halladay potentially playing 3 times (after resting a few days after his 5-game LCS while New York and Boston thrash each other across 7 games), he'll be the difference, and the Phillies win it in 6 this year.

Tomorrow: random fun predictions for the baseball season.