Why the NFL May Crush the Players in a Long Strike

While the NFLPA has good leadership, I worry that membership will cave, needing money to continue leading the overly-lavish lifestyles to which many have becoming accustomed. Take Dallas WR Dez Bryant:

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant is being sued for non-payment of $246,000 worth of jewelry by a New York-based company in a civil suit filed Friday in Dallas.

Bryant purchased $267,000 worth of jewelry from A+A Diamonds LTD d/b/a Rafaello & Company, which makes high-end jewelry for celebrities and athletes.

This guy has a contract worth millions. He's dropping at least a quarter million with one jewelry company. How much money does he actually have in the bank? That's a real question.

This same analysis may go even more for the NBA, which does not have such strong leadership in their players' union and which is dependent upon a few superstars for everything.

U.S. Steel

In the long history of U.S. Steel related evil, I'm not sure this compares with the Homestead Strike of 1892 or the Donora Fog of 1948, but this is pretty heartless for a Pittsburgh icon:

But a U.S. Steel memo says workers in the Clairton, Irvin and Edgar Thomson mills who miss work Sunday or Monday "without just cause" will face "severe disciplinary action."

The United Steelworkers union has criticized the memo. A U.S. Steel spokeswoman tells the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that the company doesn't comment on employee relations.

The newspaper says USW International vice president Tom Conway responded to the memo with an e-mail -- in black-and-gold type, the Steelers' colors -- that suggested adjusting schedules so volunteers who don't want to watch the game can work during it. Conway suggested lost production during Sunday's 3 p.m. to 11 p.m. shift could be made up later.

I mean, they aren't the Pittsburgh Steelers for nothing!  I guess once U.S. Steel moves its last token plants out of the U.S., they can change their name to the Pittsburgh Nostalgic Steelers and replace their logo with a picture of the old Homestead smokestacks that were integrated into a mall parking lot on the old site.

Speaking of Football and Unspeakably Horrible People...

Art Modell has been left off the list of the 15 finalists for the Football Hall of Fame. That sound you're hearing is the city of Cleveland laughing.

Simmons on 4th and 2

I've waited all week to see what Bill Simmons had to say about Belichick going for it on 4th and 2 at his own 28. And he delivered exactly what I thought he would. Which is also exactly what I think. In part:

So we're saying 55.7 percent, huh? That's the success rate for a road team playing its biggest rival, in a deafeningly loud dome, coming out of a timeout -- a timeout that allowed the defense to get a breather and determine exactly how to stop the obvious five-receiver spread that was coming because the offense's running game sucked -- along with that same defense getting extra fired up because it was being disrespected so egregiously/willfully/blatantly/incomprehensibly. I say lower. By a lot.

Statistics can't capture the uniqueness of a particular moment, and in this case -- with the Pats self-combusting, with a sure victory suddenly slipping away, with the crowd going bonkers, with a fired-up defense gearing up to stop them, with an obvious play looming (a short pass), and with everything happening during a drive that was already so disjointed that they had called two timeouts -- I find it really, really, REALLY hard to believe they would have completed that play 56 times out of 100 times with how they lined up. They spread the field with five receivers, eliminating any chance of a run. The Colts brought pressure -- happily -- ensuring a quick pass and a short field (so Indy's D-backs could hug the line of scrimmage). Given these realities, if you're feeding me "Here's what happened in this situation historically" numbers, shouldn't we be looking at the data for two-point conversions?

After all, this was essentially a two-point pass play. The Patriots went five wide, stuck Tom Brady in the shotgun, shortened the field and tried to find a quick-hit mismatch. Sure sounds like a two-point play. So what's the recent history of teams passing for a two-point conversion on the road? Peter Newmann from ESPN Research crunched those numbers for me.

2009: 9-for-28, .321 (overall); 3-for-10, .300 (road).
2008: 23-for-52, .442 (overall); 13-for-32, .406 (road).
2007: 14-for-38, .368 (overall); 6-for-23, .261 (road).

One other note: The "disrespecting the defense" card doesn't show up in stats. There's no way to measure the collective ability of a defense to raise its game for one play, as the fans shout the team on with every ounce of air in their lungs, while being fueled by a legitimately mind-blowing slight. In postgame interviews, four Colts defensive starters mentioned the words "disrespect" or "disrespected." And they were. We cannot account for this variable, just as we can't account for the difference of trying a fourth-and-2 in a deafening dome versus trying it at home against a lethargic Falcons teams in mid-September. I know it's fun to think stats can settle everything, but they can't, and they don't.

Exactly! The people defending Belichick are doing so in no small part because of a gut feeling that they don't like "conventional wisdom" or whatever. They seem to be primarily left of center politically who are also big baseball fans and spend a lot of time on the internet. This also describes me. But I also think that most of the people who are making these arguments don't watch a lot of football. Or they certainly watch and write about football less than they do baseball and basketball. They think it's an inferior game, in part because its reality doesn't stand up to this kind of statistical analysis.

I watch a LOT of football. Of all the people I know in the world, I would say that I know 1 person who watches more football than me. And that's probably pretty close. Hell, I tune into those Wednesday night MAC games on ESPN, which can actually be pretty entertaining. Football is so situational that while statistical analysis can help you (for instance realizing that going for it on 4th and 2 is a good idea inside the 50 almost all the time), it can't make decisions for you. Going for it against the best quarterback of the decade on the road in the loudest stadium in the league when you are in a mess of a drive and totally confused about what's going on is a terrible idea.

Plus Simmons summons excellent statistical evidence in his own right--the real useful statistics to look at in this situation is not general 4th down percentages, it's going for the 2 point conversion. Because that's what this is--you need 2 yards to win the game. It's for all intents and purposes the same thing.

Punting

There's been an unusual amount of discussion this year about whether football teams should punt on 4th and short situations. As intelligence has finally invaded the sports realm, people have increasingly criticized received wisdom. This first happened in baseball and increasingly we are seeing it in basketball as well. This kind of analysis is still in its infancy with football. Just this year, we've seen these discussions of punting. The odds show that your chances of getting a 1st down on 4th and short are quite good and give you a better chance of winning than punting in these situations.

Bill Belichick has evidently been listening, because he went for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28 against the Colts. He failed and the Colts won. Now, maybe the Colts would have won had the Patriots punted. But giving the ball to Peyton Manning inside the 30 is basically a guaranteed loss. People are defending Belichick's call, but they are wrong. The problem that statistical analysis has with football is that each game is too important to take the chance. There are 162 games in baseball and 82 in basketball. If you play the odds when they go against conventional wisdom, you might lose, but in the long run you will win more often. That's not acceptable in a 16 game football season. 1 game means a lot. It might mean making the playoffs, it might be a home playoff game. In this case, it basically eliminates any chance the Patriots of hosting the AFC Championship game, which may well come against the Colts. Failing to make it on 4th and 2 was a total disaster for the Patriots, one that might change the season.

I'm all for statistical analysis, but football is a different animal and the context of going against the grain has to be much more central to this kind of analysis. There was no excusing Belichick's decision, arguably the worst of his coaching career.

Things I Don't Get (V): The Idea of the Super Bowl in London

Yes, that's right - there are early reports that the Super Bowl may end up in London some way down the road. While I think the American population really overrates the value of the Super Bowl within the sports world, there's no denying it's popularity. To be (temporarily) fair, Goodell insists that the NFL hasn't and will not consider the idea of hosting the Super Bowl in London sometime soon. Still, even if this ever enters the phase of "serious talks," this has to be one of the dumbest things I've ever heard - the most popular sporting event in the country held overseas in a country that is already obsessed with a different "football."

My only question is, if England were to get the Super Bowl, would New York host the Champions' League finals in exchange? I'm sure that would go over well in both countries.

NFL ’09 Off-Season/Pre-Draft: The Denver Broncos

It was the biggest story involving the Broncos since Elway retired and I was remiss in not blogging about it. Now, with new coach Josh McDaniels set with two first-rounders for the next two years as a result and, with a little time to mull over the situation at a mile high, the day has come…to be followed by a more general, division-based off-season/draft talk in the days leading up to the finest day of the non-regular season.


After Shanahan was fired and McDaniels was brought in, I felt like the new coach would be perfect for Jay Cutler, which would be perfect to retake the AFC West. I had no way to realize that, however, that trouble sat some five thousand feet above me. The firing of QB coach Jeremy Bates (now at USC) angered the petulant quarterback and, within days and while down, McDaniels slapped his franchise player across the face.

I’m inevitably a fan of the team over the player, but McDaniels was stupid to think that a Bruce Campbell lookalike in Matt Cassel was worth trading Cutler away. Who to believe in the scenario is impossible to know; the only certainty was the ridiculously immature stance Cutler took in the wake of these trade talks. He’d already made motions toward a traded after Bates left, but now that all he could talk about. The whole thing seemed so ridiculous that I thought it would blow over, especially after the lack of word in the two weeks after the talks began. My ambivalence about Cutler remaining in Denver, however, was waning with each passing day. All of a sudden, with no word for days, Cutler was a Bear and Kyle Orton was a Bronco. Much to my surprise, my most powerful reaction was a shrug of the shoulders. Football is a team-oriented game more than most; if one player, no matter where they line up, doesn’t to the job, the whole team crumbles. Cutler is aloof and, if he doesn’t want to play for the Broncos, where is the guarantee he’ll give everything each game? Good riddance, Jeff George, Jr.

The reality, whomever was to blame, is that the trade was a boon for the Broncos and probably not so great for the Bears. Granted, the team takes a big loss in the switch to Orton. Orton is going from a smashmouth team with no receivers to a spread offense. Cutler, on the other hand, has Devin Hester to throw to. Wow, hot stuff. It’s hard to compare their relative performances with their former teams; Orton should perform a little better and Cutler a little worse. The real story comes in the draft picks. Denver’s holes are almost exclusively defensive so, this year at picks twelve and eighteen, they have a golden opportunity to add two defensive starters in the first round. My guess is two of the following three: Boston College DT BJ Raji, LSU DE Tyson Jackson, and USC LB Brian Cushing.

Next year is when it gets good. Let’s give a best-case scenario of 11-5 for Chicago in 2010 and a worst-case of 5-11 for Denver. Cutler plays phenomenally and Orton sucks it up. Denver has something in the neighborhood of the fifth and twenty-fifth picks in the ’10 draft along with a dire need at QB. In that draft, two quarterbacks are leaps and bounds better than the top two this year in Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford and Texas’ Colt McCoy. Denver will easily be able to snag one of these two. Neither one may be Jay Cutler; both may be better. Either one, certainly, will outshine Matt Stafford or…snort…Mark Sanchez.

In spite of the turmoil in Denver, I still find this off-season the most productive in recent years. The 2009 Broncos are a team I barely recognize but, for now, a team I find beautiful. If, in the draft, they can pick up a DT and a middle linebacker, the words of Michael Stipe will finally come true: “I’ve got my spine; I’ve got my orange crush.” More will come clear after the weekend and, until then, go Neckbeard Orton, go Josh McDaniels, and go Broncos!

Football in Mexico!

There is an excellent article over at the LA Times from a couple days ago about the rising popularity of American football in Mexico. I have not yet personally seen a Mexican football game, but it is definitely on my list of things I need to do in Mexico. One of my greatest experiences watching a football game was in Mexico about two years ago. There is a movie theatre just outside of Mexico City that shows Monday night football games, so I went to see the Bengals and Colts play. I was not expecting much, who could possibly like those teams in Mexico City? My perception was that most Mexicans only like the Cowboys or the Raiders, but I was completely wrong. The theatre was packed, there was a huge line to get in, and most people in line had Bengals or Colts jerseys on. Once we got into the theatre, it was like a giant party, with theatre staff walking around serving beer, nachos, and other kinds of junk food. Not only was it great to get beer in a theatre, but also to watch a game with several hundred other people having a great time. I would definitely take this over going to some lame sports bar to watch a game in the U.S.

The Sporting Life

Go other 28 teams! The Red Sox lost, reminding America that there are 28 other teams that are worth rooting for. I was sure that Major League Baseball was somehow going to fix this so that Red Sox won and the World Series ratings were saved. But I guess this isn't the NBA, where this would actually happen.

Tampa-Philadelphia. That's a great World Series right there. I don't really care who wins, though it has been a long time for the Phillies and I am kind of rooting for them I think. Tampa is a great story but they have a few years to get back here. Either way though, no Yankees, no Red Sox. Great.

In other news, the Dallas Cowboys just lost to the St. Louis Rams! No, I'm sorry, they were blown out by the St. Louis Rams. Even my Seattle Seahawks, who are terrible, beat the Rams. I'm real glad Dallas decided to trade their entire 2009 draft for Roy Williams, who paid them back with 0 catches.

Does Dallas win another playoff game in my lifetime? Here's hoping not.

Brett Favre Has Officially Crossed My Annoyance Threshold

I never really related to Lyrad's perpetual contempt for Brett Favre (and indeed, I heartily, if ultimately unsuccessfully, rooted him on against the Broncos.....stupid John Elway.....). But if what Peter King is reporting is true, I'm on the bandwagon of Favre hating. I understand that some of the best atheletes of their generations (be it statistically, the media's eye, or their own) often have to have a certain obnoxious arrogance and disconnect from reality, but this is just ridiculous. Even I can easily admit that Favre has been pampered by the media and most football fans for far too long, and he has never really had to hold to any decision he's made or accept any major responsibility for what he does to the team in the name of his ego. I found this annoying at times, but again, I really don't see how that's so different from a Jordan or a Tiger Woods or any number of high-paid atheletes. But this is just getting ridiculous. If he comes out of retirement, the Packers are screwed, period. I fully agree with King's analysis. If Favre finds it too boring hanging out on his 430 acre farm in Mississippi with nothing to do, all while being set financially for life and never having to worry about employment again, well, color me less than sympathetic. Favre needs to just shut up and sit at home. He spent 6 weeks thinking about his decision, and he made it; he's reneged and left the Packers out to dry long enough, and if he shows up at any camp, Green Bay or otherwise, this fall, I hope that every professional football fan is as unsympathetic and antagonistic to Favre's return as they should be, that he takes the Colin Powell route and has his reputation forever tarnished. In short, Brett Favre should shut up and stay home.

The Onion Strikes Again

Truer words have seldom been spoken....

The Closest the Browns will get to the Playoffs for Awhile...

Funny because it's true.

One of the Dumber Sports Lists in Recent Memory

I enjoy sports counter-factuals and "hall of famer or not?" debates as much as any sports fan. But ESPN's article "Cantonized" is, to put it simply, absolutely stupid. Debating the top 10 or 20 people you think will get into the football hall of fame is fine, but fifty??????? It's one thing to say, "Warren Sapp will get in because of these factors", "Bret Favre is a lock", or "Alan Faneca may make it in"; all have been around for awhile, you can compare their results to other players throughout history, etc.

But saying "Adrian Peterson will get in" when he has no professional experience? Or (my favorite), saying Brady Quinn won't make it in only because the Browns are awful? This is just stupid beyond sublimity, and not just because there is no way of evaluating a future hall of famer when one hasn't even played a game (though there is that - saying Peterson won't ever get hurt seems rather ignorant of the fateful vagaries of issues like car accidents, plane crashes, unforeseen heart problems, exploding knees, etc.). It's also just absurd to know how a player will turn out in terms of personality. Did anybody look at Tom Brady pre-2000 and say, "now, here is a future hall of famer - even if he does play for the never-champion Patriots"? Of course not. You have no way of knowing who will turn into a born leader and who won't. While it's very possible Quinn could totally flame out, we know that as certainly as we know he could also be one of the greatest leaders ever in football.

And criticizing Quinn because he plays for the awful-for-the-last-17-years Browns is just as dumb, given the nature of modern sports contracts. If he ends up being unbelievable in terms of production, but wants more attention, there's nothing to stop him from going to New York or L.A. [if they have a team by then] when he has a contract expire.

In short, we just don't know anything beyond the top 15-25 potential hall-of-famers or so, and while performing such an exercise with 10 or 20 NFL players may be fun, by making it fifty and including who just misses is just one more way that ESPN.com has jumped the proverbial shark.