Now Why Would We Have A Cold War With China Again?

Robert Kaplan's long piece in the June issue of the Atlantic about fighting a Cold War with China left me rather perplexed. Because, you know, why would that happen again? Kaplan argues that such a situation is almost an inevitability without ever really giving a good reason why. He talks about China wanting to extend its hegemony across Asia and the US resisting that. And of course he talks about Taiwan. But the first situation is not only somewhat questionable and very long-term, but is also not necessarily directly oppositional to US interests as I see them.

Really I don't see any good reason for China to become our enemy unless they invade Taiwan. And if that happens, it's probably because the Taiwanese decided to declare their independence from the mainland. But why would that happen? Would the US really be stupid enough to let that happen? God, I would hope not.

But let's look at all the factors that Kaplan leaves out that make a China-US Cold War unlikely. First, the Chinese economy. The Chinese economy is growing like crazy, it's true. But how long can that economic growth hold out? They need that sustained economic growth to continue their investments in the military that is allowing that military to become a world power. Moreover, the need that growth to continue for a long time because their military is very far away from being even a distant competitor to that of the US. Right now all they have is their population, something that is aging with the child limitations and in another 20 years when China is maybe ready to compete with the US, is in fact very old and men of military age will be much more limited than we would think today.

Second, China holds a lot of US dollars. That is a double-edged sword. We may not want the Chinese to have such an important bargaining chip on us. But on the other hand, why would the Chinese want to use such a bargaining chip? Why would they risk those investments, not to mention a very important trading partner, to start some sort of scenario that could lead to a cold or even a hot war? This just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Third, we have limited oil supplies. The growth of the Chinese economy is predicated on continuing oil supplies. Chinese demand adding to American demand is what has caused the price of oil to go up so fast. Let's say this keeps happening. Whose economy falters first? Clearly, it would be the Chinese. If that happens, they don't keep growing their military at the same rate.

Fourth, Kaplan argues that both China and the US will be wanting to extend control over the islands of the Pacific. Unfortunately for both those islands and for Kaplan's arguments, global warming will erase many of these, perhaps within 50 years.

Finally, and in something of an aside from his main arguments, Kaplan talks rather revoltingly about how we won't be able to rely on Europe in our fight with China over vague issues because the EU will make Europe less democratic and less interested in helping us out. He talks about how EU functionaries will move Europe closer to China on issues such as human rights over the next few decades. Ah, nothing like some Europe-bashing to make your arguments.

Now I'm no China expert. But this argument seems unlikely and almost nonsensical to me. I know nothing about Kaplan. But I am wondering if he is not experiencing Cold War nostalgia. I wonder if he, as is the case with others, spent his early career in a Cold War world, and then when it ended didn't know how else to look at things. Let's face it, American foreign policy since 1991 has not been kind to cold warriors. The free trade foreign policy of the Clinton administration certainly didn't work. Of course after September 11, the Bush administration tried to make terrorism related to specific states to fit their ideas, but that obviously didn't work well since Iraq didn't have relations with Al Qaeda and because many of our allies did. So maybe a Cold War with China makes certain foreign policy analysts feel comfortable.