NFL 2007 Preview: AFC East

Last year, the Simool System appeared to be the king of all football prediction engines. Unfortunately, this was not the case, and I looked a little silly putting so much faith in it. No longer. This year, I debut the Lyrad Line, a foolproof diviner of NFL records, successes and failures.

To start alphabetically, the AFC East:

BUFFALO BILLS (5-11)

OFFENSE: This is J.P. Losman’s “make it or break it” year. There is no chance he will have made anything positive come playoff time. With the exit of Willis McGahee and a line that features a rookie center and a number of starters changing position, Losman will have as much protection as David Carr. Look for this squad to feature astronomically low scoring totals.

DEFENSE: This will likely be more successful than the other side, but how much more is questionable. Questions are the big player for the Bills defense this year. They are young and less experienced than most, but could come up with some big plays. They could as well, however, give up astronomically high scoring totals.

It’s hard to believe they could go lower, but the Bills have actually taken steps backward this year. They signed a completely unknown RB in Marshawn Lynch, eschewing a proven commodity in McGahee much like they eschewed Travis Henry. It’s sad because I actually kind of like Buffalo now that the dippy Jim Kelly is gone.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-8)

OFFENSE: The Dolphins offense is a shambles. The quarterback debacle of last year has resulted in a move akin to Arizona picking up the washed-up Kurt Warner after the Rams benched him. Trent Green will help nothing in Miami except for, possibly, the neurologists’ paychecks after having to examine him so many times. Ronnie Brown is fine, but the offensive line is average at best and the receiving game, while on the move, is still pretty sub-par. It’ll be the Brown Show in Miami and it’ll be pretty easy for defenses to figure this out.

DEFENSE: The defense is the only reason these guys aren’t going 4-12 this year. They may be old, but their linebackers are still great and feature the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year in Jason Taylor. I’ll always be a Keith Traylor fan for his noble stint in Denver. Their secondary needs a lot of work, but those linebackers will pick up much of the slack.

Last year, I chose Miami as one of the elites of the AFC. I learn from my mistakes and will not be so stupid this time. No matter how good that defense looks, the whole picture is mediocre. I am happy that, though they’re playing the AFC West this year, they will not be playing the Broncos. For years and years, they are Denver’s spoiler and it is eternally frustrating.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4)

OFFENSE: What can possibly be said that hasn’t already? With the inclusion of Randy Moss and Donte’ Stallworth, Tom Brady has his last year’s #1 in the slot, and look how well he did then. I’m not convinced of their running game and, honestly, don’t think it will be very good. That’s ok though; they don’t need to run.

DEFENSE: In spite of their age, the Patriots defense will be solid, if not earth-shattering this year. They’ll be in a much better position if they can get the Asante Samuel situation worked out, and I think they will. They’ve only got a couple of years of supremacy left if they can’t shore up the age situation, but it won’t matter this year.

A lot of people claim certainty that the Patriots will win the Super Bowl. I’m unconvinced, but they do have a good shot. With the numbers Brady is expected to put up this year, they’re going to be hard to stop on any level.

NEW YORK JETS (6-10)

OFFENSE: Will this finally be the year people stop thinking Chad Pennington is a worthwhile quarterback? Probably not, but the talk of his potential reminds me to much of how everybody dealt with Jake Plummer and it makes me sick. Thomas Jones will take over where Curtis Martin has left off, but only having Laveranues Coles and Jones does not make a good team. They have a great young center, but they really won’t reap the benefits of him until Pennington is gone and he has more experience under his belt. Not so much this year.

DEFENSE: The J-E-T-S have a few good players in their starting front seven, but the secondary is terrible. There are more problems with them to name here, but it would be to every team’s benefit to never run against them. It’s not as if they’re supreme against the run, but it’s possible for quarterbacks to have perfect passer ratings against these guys. Even if they throw interceptions, it isn’t as if their offense is going to be able to capitalize on it.

In the end, I think 6-10 is a generous prediction, but I like Mangini, and they had boxing trainer/commentator Teddy Atlas in to help with training camp and I support that. Plus, they get to play the Bills twice, so there’s a couple of wins right there.

…Tomorrow, it’s the AFC North. Will the Browns still be a JV team? Will Ben Roethlisberger remember to not have two catastrophes right before the season opener? Tune in next time.