More Thailand

The coup has consolidated. The King publicly supports it. Thaksin is out.

I am a little more concerned than I was initially about the prospects of democracy in Thailand. I am pretty unhappy that the coup has suspended the constitution and even more unhappy that they claim it will take a year to write a new one. Coup leaders are promising elections for next year so that is good.

I think it is important to remember how uncomfortable Southeast Asia is with democracy. Thailand is seen as this safe, fun country with political stability and an open economy. This is mostly correct. But look at its neighbors. To the south is Malaysia, where Mahathir has controlled political life for decades, including sentencing a chief political rival to a lengthy prison term on trumped up charges of homosexuality. To the west and north is Burma, a country that has a great deal of cultural and religious similiarities with Thailand. Yet they live under one of the most brutal military dictatorships in the world. To the northeast is Laos, an impoverished nation controlled by the remants of the communists who took over during the 1960s. And to the southeast is Cambodia, about which nothing needs to be said. Other regional countries that don't border Thailand, such as China, Vietnam, and Singapore, are hardly democratic bastions.

It seems to me that the Thai ruling class shares much of the same discomfort as the ruling classes in the rest of the region. Thailand had a functioning democracy since 1992 and the rural poor loved Thaksin. This the elites ultimately could not deal with. Democracy brings disorder, espeically in a nation changing as rapidly as Thailand. When your military and political classes don't really want democracy to begin with, it is hardly surprising that they would clamp down. In addition, according to this Asia Times article, the monarchy did not like the increasingly centralized power of the executive. King Rama IX is getting pretty old and wants a stable transition to his son, who is known to be quite sympathetic with anti-democratic elements.

It is possible that the coup will actually help democracy in the long run. Thaksin was deeply corrupt and his centralization of power had the potential to use his democratic mandate to undermine democracy. So this situation needs to be watched closely. Hopefully, Thailand will continue to be a relative leader for democracy in Thailand. It will certainly be interesting in any case.