NFL 2007 Preview: AFC South

The dichotomy of elite and pathetic is most apparant in the AFC South. Parity only spuriously exists in this division, so let's see how it'll play out...

HOUSTON TEXANS (6-10)

OFFENSE: The lateral moves the Texans made during this offseason make me wonder if Matt Millen is running this team, too. Matt Schaub and Ahman Green for David Carr and Dominick Davis is a tradeoff that means nothing. Sure, Carr and Davis look bad right now, but the O-Line is the group to blame. The inexperienced Schaub and the aged Green will fare no better than their predecessors.

DEFENSE: Their defense is slightly improved over last year, and they should give up a little less, especially in the run game. I may be the only one, but I’ve always supported the draft of Mario Williams. The way it looked last year, they already had a QB and a RB, so they drafted for need. He didn’t perform like a champion in his rookie season, but his sophomore effort should be stronger with the drafting of Okoye at DT. Their secondary is mediocre at best, so those linemen had better get some pressure or there are a lot of points coming their way.

I want Gary Kubiak to succeed in Houston but, until there are serious improvements in the line play, there will be no improvements in the offense. They are making the mistake of thinking that skill players win games. But without a line, there is no running game and, without a running game, there is no passing game. With the Texans’ line, there is nothing.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11-5)

OFFENSE: Unfortunately, the Colts have only improved their offense for this year. Two new young receivers gives depth to Manning’s attack and, since nobody has yet figured out how to stop him, I don’t see them having too hard of a time returning to the playoffs. Adai has had a year to work and should be better. The only trouble is if somebody gets injured. The starters are great but they’ve spent so much money on their main players that there’s nothing left for depth. So far, they’ve been lucky, but I can’t see that lasting forever.

DEFENSE: They couldn’t defend the run last year and they won’t be able to in the coming year. In fact, I predict that they’ll be worse. The pass defense is fine but their inability to stop rushers will severely hamstring their intentions to repeat.

The Colts will not return to the Super Bowl this year; that game is reserved for better teams. Manning is still the best quarterback in the game, but their mounting problems with depth and on the defensive side do not bode well for their chances. They always have Adam Vinatieri to get them out of a tight pinch, but they’d better hope for a lot of pinches if they’re getting to the big show.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (7-9)

OFFENSE: The Jags were unexpectedly good last year and, at times, even showed hints that they could be an elite team. However, they haven’t dealt with the Leftwich situation. He needs to go, but David Garrard is not the answer. They do have Jones-Drew emerging as a possible top-tier back, and he’ll take more of the carries from Fred Taylor this year if he lives up to his potential, but that is really all they have going for them. The receivers aren’t very good and they don’t have anyone reliable to throw to them. They won’t score a lot of points.

DEFENSE: While there aren’t a lot of names on the defensive squad, the Jax D is a well-coached group that worked very well together last year. Their run defense is outstanding and should continue to be. They need to hope that their pass defense performs at another level if they hope to be a + .500 team.

I have a hard time believing that Jacksonville will see much of the success they had last year. It took people off guard and they won some big games. They looked on the way up but, after this offseason, it’s looking like they haven’t taken a single step forward. Del Rio will have one more year after this to improve the team. If he can’t, these guys might be descending into moribundity. I hope it’s untrue, but it’s starting to lean that way.

TENNESSEE TITANS (9-7)

OFFENSE: With a year of experience under his belt, Vince Young should undisputedly rise to the elite of his draft class this year. If he can stay healthy, his electrifying play style should continue to take defenses off guard, and his improving arm should give him versatility that other quarterbacks don’t have. I have a lot of faith that LenDale White will succeed in the NFL if given the chance, and his 61 rushes in 2006 are not an indicator of what he’s capable of. Chris Brown will likely be injured by the end of preseason, so White will likely have a chance to shine. For the future, they must focus on a receiving corps, because Young’s talents can only go so far.

DEFENSE: These guys were a tier below the unsung performance of the Jaguars’ defense last season, but they made some really strong efforts against some good teams. Not a lot has changed, and I generally think that’s a bad idea, but they might be able to make it work, at least to give just enough leeway to the offense to get the job done.

The Titans could be 11-5 or 7-9 depending on some breaks. Young’s talent will not come as a surprise to anybody this year, so there will be a heavier rush on him. This will decrease his rushing efforts, but he will have a lot more freedom in the passing game as a result. Because of this, and because eyes aren’t going to be on the running backs, I look for them to be an above average, possibly even a playoff, team.

Next, the vaunted AFC West. Is JaMarcus Russell the messiah that can deliver the silver and black attack from evil, or will he suck it up like the rest? Will Norv Turner be any better in San Diego than he was in Oakland? Just how long will the Broncos’ win streak last? 16 games? All the way into the 2010 season? Tune into tomorrow to find out….