Primary Fight

Boy, was last night a huge win for Clinton. The race is still on. Some are bemoaning this fact. I don't think it's a bad thing. I have a few general thoughts about all of this:

1. Negative advertising seems to have worked against Obama. I don't necessarily have a huge problem with Hillary going negative. Nothing she says is going to help the Republicans create a campaign against Obama. They are smart enough to come up with extremely negative narratives of their own. It also shows that Obama is vulnerable to this kind of attack. Can he respond effectively? He didn't in Ohio and Texas.

2. Obama is still the presumptive nominee given the delegate counts. One has to wonder what happens if she has the momentum going into the convention but he has a slight delegate lead.

3. The Wyoming and Mississippi contests in the next week are very important. Obama needs to win both to reestablish his momentum going into Pennsylvania. I'm sure he'll win MS in a landslide. He should win WY too. But if he doesn't, this actually hurts him a lot, at least in the overall narrative of the campaign if not the delegate count.

4. It's still pretty simple. If Obama wins PA, this thing is over. If Clinton wins, it's not over. If she wins, then she has to continue winning in states like Oregon, Indiana, and North Carolina, as well as Puerto Rico, which has 55 delegates for some reason. Then, it all comes down to likely do-overs in Michigan and Florida. Am I the only person less than ecstatic that a questionable Florida vote could again decide an election? Can we just give the state to Cuba?

5. The continued battle for the nomination doesn't really hurt the Democrats. Rather, it keeps media attention focused squarely on health care, the economy, and Iraq. This is a really great thing. McCain is in the background, almost forgotten about. Plus, isn't it a great thing that Democrats across the nation are playing a role in choosing the party's nominee? This can only help build infrastructure for state races in the fall. If Rick Noriega beats John Cornyn for the Texas Senate seat, one might look to the huge mobilization of Democrats here as the reason.

6. Can Obama actually win big primaries? This has long been a Clinton talking point. Is it true? I am beginning to wonder. Of course, Clinton came into these races with big leads. But after making Ohio tight and taking a lead in Texas, there was a swing back to Clinton in the last five days. Why? I don't know, but this is becoming an increasingly powerful theme within the Clinton campaign, maybe for good reason.

7. One interesting solution to this fight could be a co-presidency scheme. This was proposed in 1980 with a possible Reagan-Ford ticket that would share power. Ford demanded control over State and Treasury, specifically naming Henry Kissinger and Alan Greenspan to those posts. Reagan rejected this and asked George Bush to be his VP instead. Today, Clinton discussed the idea of a co-presidency but of course claimed that she would have to be on top because voters are choosing her, a dubious assertion. There are two reasons why I don't think this will happen. First, it's really hard to see Hillary sharing power with Obama. Second, if she was the presidential nominee, what exactly would Obama's profile be? This speaks to his lack of experience, but I'm not sure what particular policy areas is his explicitly more qualified to work in. I'd like to say he would have a huge role in foreign policy, but with Hillary, Bill, and Dick Holbrook as an almost certain Secretary of State, I don't see this happening. Of course, he would be the logical VP pick if she wins the nomination outright.

8. Also, how much plastic surgery has Cindy McCain had? Yikes!