Tuesday, June 30, 2009


So today is the June 30 deadline for U.S. involvement in major combat operations to end in Iraq. A remarkable day, made even more so by the fact that the coverage of the event is limited, particularly when compared to Michael Jackson.

Obviously this had to happen. The open glee of Iraqis again demonstrates this, if anyone still needed convincing. I do think that the next months are going to be very interesting. There´s been a rise in violent attacks on civilians. If this continues, what will happen? What will Obama do? Is there anything he can do? Will we continue our withdrawal as planned, regardless of what happens? What will the American political response be to a rise in violence?

I suspect the answer is that little will change for American involvement regardless of Iraqi violence. They don´t want us there, we don´t want to be there. At best, it becomes like Vietnam after 1975, when the predicted bloodbath after the South Vietnamese finally folded didn´t really come true (or at least to the extent that most critics of US withdrawal claimed). At worst, it looks like 2006. Either way though, this incredibly foolish and disastrous war is coming to an end for the Americans and we are beginning to engage in Afghanistan like we should have 7 years ago. At least we might be able to still do some good there.