Monday, November 03, 2008

Election Predictions

With a day to go, here are my election predictions:

Obama 356
McCain 182

Of the contested states, I have Obama winning Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and in a bit of a surprise, North Dakota. There hasn't been a lot of polling of North Dakota but what there is suggests a real chance for an Obama win.

I do have McCain holding on by tight margins in Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Indiana, and Georgia. I don't think West Virginia will be particularly close at all.

Senate: Democrats pick up 8 seats. I do think Franken will seal the deal in Minnesota although it is hard to say.

I also think that Saxby Chambliss will win a plurality but fail to win 50%, forcing a runoff against Jim Martin in December, a race that will be for the 60th Democratic seat.

I really don't see the Kentucky or Mississippi races falling our way.


Democrats pick up 23 seats. I don't necessarily buy the huge gains some are hoping for. People seem to be relatively satisfied with their own representative, even as they hate Congress as a whole. There will be some gains, but not overwhelming.