Around Latin America

-Copper miners in Chile went on strike earlier this week at the second-biggest copper-complex in the world, demanding better pay. Chile's copper miners have historically been one of the stronger labor forces in the world due to the importance of their work in terms of Chile's GNP (indeed, some have argued that Chile's copper miners are their own style of "privilged" union in comparison to other unions in Chile because of the importance of their work), and this strike was no exception, as copper prices immediately rising globally. Yesterday, Codelco, the mining company, offered a new compensation package for the workers, and they accepted it and ended the strike.

-In Paraguay, allegations of a planned military coup against Fernando Lugo continue to surface, in spite of (or perhaps because of) Lugo's efforts to clean out the military leadership when he took office.

-Prosecutions against military officers who participated in the military dictatorship of 1976-1983 in Argentina continue, as 15 men are now being tried before a tribunal. Another officer, known as the "Angel of Death," is also facing prison for his role in torture and "disappearances," including the murder of two French nuns, during the "Dirty War." And a judge who was involved with torture sessions was just sentenced to prison for 21 years for "misconduct," including a hit-and-run involving a swimmer and the judge's motorboat.

-Clashes erupted in Suriname between locals and Brazilian gold miners after a local was stabbed by a Brazilian. At least 25 were injured, while the Brazilian alleged to have committed the stabbing is in police custody. The case issues both the diaspora of (usually poor) Brazilians from the north seeking wealth in neighboring countries, and the tensions that can and do arise from this dispersion.

-The Brazilian government is finally trying to legally establish who owns what lands in the Amazonian basin. The decision arises out of the ongoing violence against poor landowners and landless individuals, who are often in conflict with major landowners and who are often murdered by the wealthy and their underlings, murders that function in a similar manner as in the murder of Dorothy Strang). Environmentalists hope the new efforts will also provide a state presence in the region and reduce deforestation. I don't have much hope about the environmental effects of this new policy, but certainly, a stronger state presence is needed in the region, and if the policy reduces the number of murders over land claims in the North, then that alone will be a noteworthy accomplishment.

-A new map has mapped the Guarani territory in the tri-border area between Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. In addition to defining the exact geographic region the Guarani claim as their homeland, the map also reveals the sources of threat to Guarani land and culture, including expanding soy farming, dams, and deforestation.

-In spite of the ever-classy efforts of Republican Senators Jim DeMint and George LeMieux to block (with damaging economic consequences) Barack Obama's nominee for U.S. ambassador to Brazil, the U.S. Senate finally was able to approve both Thomas Shannon as ambassador to Brazil and David Nelson as ambassador to Uruguay. It's really inexcusable that it has taken this long to get an ambassador to one of the largest countries politically, economically, and geographically, but the stupidity of Republican tantrum-throwing in the name of "opposition" knows no bounds.

Fernando Lugo Removes Top Military Chiefs: An Update

Yesterday, I commented on Paraguay's Fernando Lugo removing top military chiefs amidst vague rumors of coup possibilities. Well, yesterday, Lugo offered an explanation:

The reshuffling was intended to bring in new blood, he said.

"There are excellent young officers who must be given the opportunity," Lugo said. "Talented officers who have demonstrated their ability and track record at the same time in defending the country's democratic institutions."

This seems reasonable, but probably understates the political necessity or objectives of the removals. Still, as of now at least, I really don't see this turning into any major crisis for Paraguayan democracy or Lugo's administration.

Around Latin America - Human Rights

A few items of note this week:

-In Guyana, police are facing (rightfully) severe criticism and outrage over a brutal case of torture. While interrogating a 14-year-old boy about a murder, they apparently set his genitals on fire in an effort to torture answers out of him. Outrage among Guyanans of all sectors was immediate, in part exacerbated by pictures of the boy (caution: the previous link is very graphic and disturbing) on the front page of one of the daily newspapers. The chief of police is saying that the entire police force is being castigated for the actions of a few bad apples; however, citizens in Guyana are saying torture has long been a problem in the police force for a long time, and their skepticism; every government and regime that has used torture tends to deny the widespread practices and blames a few "rogue elements" (see: Rumsfeld, Donald).

-I'm late in getting to this, but in Argentina this week, General Reynaldo Benito Bignone, the final president of Argentina's dictatorship during the "Dirty War" (1976-1983), went on trial for his role in human rights abuses. Bignone was president of Argentina from the Argentine defeat in the Malvinas/Falklands War in June 1982 until the inauguration of Raul Alfonsin in December 1983. The specific charges against Bignone include the torture of 56 people, as well as the use of illegal searches. Bignone is one of the last "presidents" of the "Dirty War" to face charges, and is currently under house arrest. While I don't know what the outcome will be, or if he will see any prison-time, the fact that Argentina is going after him is just another good step in addressing the terrors of one of its darkest periods in history, when the military government killed upwards of 30,000 of its own citizens in just 7 years.

-I recently mentioned that Brazil's government appears on the verge of launching its own truth commission, 24 years after its military dictatorship (1964-1985) finally ended. While this would be the first governmentally-sponsored Truth commission, we already know much about the mechanisms and practices of torture in Brazil, as I mentioned, and a large part of that knowledge comes from the "Never Again" project that the Catholic Church and Protestant leaders cooperated on. In short, they managed to find a loophole in law under Brazil's dictatorship, in which lawyers could, for a 24-hour period, take out secret military files detailing arrests, tortures, and "trials" before tribunals. The original intention of the law was to allow some facade of "defense" in these trials. However, Archbishop Cardinal Arns and Reverend Jamie Wright realized what the loophole offered, and so they had a team of lawyers taking out these files for 24 hours, and (without the government's awareness) the Church would photocopy all of the files, returning them on time. As the dictatorship came to a close, the Church compiled the files into a 6-volume set, and published a condensed one-volume report in 1985 titled Brasil: Nunca Mais ("Brazil: Never Again"). Well, for those interested, you can download the entire report from University of Texas Press. You have to pay, but if you go to this link, you can also read the introduction to the project for free. And for those interested in the narrative of how the Church was able to photocopy the files and create a huge archive documenting the Brazilian dictatorship's regime of torture and abuses, check out this book.

-Speaking of the military, in Paraguay this week, Fernando Lugo fired his military chiefs just one day after denying that he was worried about the possibility of a coup. As has often been the case in Latin American history (Brazil 1964; Chile 1973; Guatemala 1954), Lugo's rhetoric and efforts to help the poor were at the base of the rumors:

Since winning the presidency last year and ending 61 years of domination by the conservative Colorado Party, Lugo has been trying to push reforms that would benefit Paraguay's numerous poor.

He has criticized an elite class that "sits comfortably in air-conditioned offices," while the poor "survive on just one meal a day if they are lucky ... without safe drinking water, surrounded by misery."

Lugo's rivals have been searching for ways to force him about of office before his term ends in August 2013.

Last week, a majority of lawmakers threatened to mount an impeachment trial over comments he allegedly made in a poor neighborhood that some interpreted as a call for class warfare. Lugo denied saying that.

Lugo also assured everybody that there was no broad threat from the military, even while saying that "There could be small military groups that are connected to or could be used by the political class, but institutionally, the military does not show any intent of reversing the process of democratic consolidation." While I suspect he's right about the overall military establishment in Paraguay, the fact that he fired some of those chiefs makes it clear he didn't find the rumors to be completely unsubstantiated, either.

-Finally, the Obama administration announced this week that it was in favor of offering political asylum to a Guatemalan woman fleeing her abusive husband:

With White House backing, Rody Alvarado Peña likely will be allowed to stay in the United States after fighting immigration court since 1995, The New York Times reported.

Alvarado currently lives in California where she is a housekeeper at a home for elderly nuns. She told the newspaper she was pleased but wondered why it took so long.

Immigration lawyers said the administration had taken a major step toward defining the legal grounds in a murky area of asylum law under which battered and sexually abused women in foreign countries could seek U.S. protection.

This is just great news. While some may (and certainly will) complain about the use of "political" asylum for victims of domestic abuse, or mount some weak, racist anti-immigration stance over this, it's a great humanitarian step on the part of the Obama administration. Many countries in Latin America still don't offer a good way out for women in abusive marriages. By offering political asylum for these victims, Obama has taken a good, significant step in doing what he can to help women who face domestic violence in other countries, and that's a good thing.

Facial Hair of the Weekend

To make up for my gaffe last week, the other South American leader with a full beard (though nowhere near as full or good as Lula's): Fernando Lugo, President of Paraguay.

Tensions between Brazil and Paraguay

The New York Times has a story up about "mounting tensions" between Brazil and Paraguay. This week, Brazil is conducting military training along their border with Paraguay. Paraguay is rather nervous over this, and Fernando Lugo this week made some strong statements about what would happen if Brazil violated even "one inch" of Paraguay's territorial sovereignty.

I must say, the tensions mentioned in this story seem to fall far more on the Paraguay side of the equation than the Brazil side. I think the implicit connections that the story tries to make between the training practices and the Paraguayan landless' efforts to seize land owned by Brazilians in Paraguay is tenuous at best. Yes, there is the possibility that naturalized Brazilians' ownership is at risk in Paraguay, and it is in the Brazilian government's interests to make sure its citizens are not harmed, be it in Paraguay or elsewhere. Still, I'm not really convinced that the Paraguayan landless movement and the military training have led to heightened nervousness in Brazil. That may be the case, but the article really offers nothing in the way of evidence to back that up.

As for Paraguay, I have little doubt that their tensions are very real and a bit more pervasive. None can fault Paraguay for being a bit worried about the fact that, just as there is a growing movement to remove foreign (mostly Brazilian) farmers from there lands in Paraguay, Brazil is training its military along Paraguay's border. Although it was nearly 140 years ago, the War of the Triple Alliance, in which Brazil (with nominal and brief aid from Argentina and Uruguay) invaded Paraguay. The 6-year war (1864-1870) ended up with nearly half of Paraguay's population dead, and more than 80% of its men over the age of 20 casualties of war or disease. It's not hard to understand why, even if so much time has passed, Paraguay might still be a bit on edge over this.

Still, I really don't think much is going to come of this, at least for now. Brazil does often train troops in that region, and it (along with the Amazonian basin) is a major site of illegal smuggling of drugs, weapons, and especially products like electronics and housewares, whose smuggling helps circumvent Brazilian taxes and tariffs. What is more, if there's any single word that could describe Lula's foreign policy, it's "diplomatic." Even when popular opinion in Brazil calls for sabre-rattling and takes a more aggressive stance towards its neighbors, Lula has practiced a calm, peaceful foreign policy. In short, "cooperation" has been the word for the last 6 years under Lula, and there is absolutely no good reason to see the military training as a sudden shift in that policy over what amounts to a domestic issue facing Paraguay.

That said, this does raise the specter of uglier regional politics in the post-Lula era. There can be no doubt that, since the beginning of the decade, Brazil has come to assume a new role as regional leader in South America, gaining a very real presence as the major power of the region, rather than a nominal presence (which is what Brazil's role as a regional leader often was throughout the 20th century). While Lula's administration has been one of reasoned diplomacy and cooperation, there's nothing to guarantee that future leaders will be as calm and patient in dealing with their neighbors, particularly when said leaders perceive Brazil's own interests to be at risk. In light of Lula's foreign policy over the past several years, I really don't see much aggression in and of itself in Brazil's recent definition of foreign aggression as "whoever threatens or commits “hostile prejudicial acts against Brazilian sovereignty, territorial integrity or the Brazilian people”. However, it is open-ended enough to leave room for future leaders to interpret it in a far more aggressive fashion than Lula probably would. And while it may seem strange to suggest that Brazil would provoke a war with another country over a perceived threat, geopolitics is strange, and it's not like countries haven't unilaterally declared war over "perceived threats" before. Thus, while I don't think there's much to the Mercopress article right now (and, like the New York Times article, I think the connections it and the Estado de Sao Paulo are trying to make are a bit tenuous), it does raise the interesting specter that, down the line, Brazil could become a bit of a regional bully in South America as the regional, hemispheric, and global geopolitics shift.

Threat of Coup Against Lugo Fades (For Now)

Last week, I mentioned that Fernando Lugo may have been facing talks of a coup. Fortunately, Congress quickly moved to resolve the situation:

The Paraguayan Senate managed on Thursday to defuse an institutional stand off
which threatened the stability of the recently inaugurated government of
President Fernando Lugo. With a simple majority the ruling collation disbarred
former president Nicanor Duarte who insisted in occupying a seat for which he
had been elected.

This doesn't completely resolve the situation. While it does address the Duarte situation, it doesn't address the fact that there are still tensions among higher levels of the military over Lugo's firing of top military officials after he was inaugurated. Still, Duarte was at the center of Lugo's allegations of coup discussions, so, at least for now, the situation seems a little better off.


...UPDATE: Boz has more, including an interesting story (in Spanish) that mentions the possibility of Lugo calling for a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution. I don't know if it will get to that point, but if it does, I wouldn't be surprised to see some efforts to re-define at least somewhat the role of the military so that another Stroessner or other military leader can't come into power.

Plans for a Coup against Fernando Lugo?

Maybe Fernando Lugo's not as safe as I thought:

Latin American leaders have rallied behind Paraguay's new president, Fernando Lugo, after he said he was the target of a possible coup plot.[... Lugo] has accused retired general Lino Oviedo and former president Nicanor Duarte of involvement in the alleged conspiracy. Both have denied this.

I don't really know what to make of this, honestly. Oviedo and Duarte both deny Lugo's accusations, claiming that Lugo's just making such claims for "political purposes," while Lugo is claiming he has "evidence of the meeting and plot and said all Paraguayans need to be on alert for coup attempts by "antidemocratic and retrograde” elements."

It's a really weird story, and a little unsettling. Certainly, his decision to sack the top military commanders could and probably did ruffle some feathers, so it gives some substance to his claims about Oviedo and Duarte. Oviedo and Duarte may be right; this may be a political ploy. If it is, though, it's a ploy that doesn't make much sense for Lugo: he is still in his honeymoon period, and he doesn't really have any major opposition from the electorate or domestic troubles yet. What's more, Lugo has never been a demagogue, and I'm not sure why he'd start now. If this is true, it's unsettling; hopefully more info will come to light, and Lugo will be able to complete his still-nascent presidency.

That's Quite a Way to Kick Off a New Presidential Administration

Well, Fernando Lugo certainly has made an interesting move in his first week as President of Paraguay:

The new Paraguayan President, Fernando Lugo, has replaced the commanders of the army, navy, and air force. The dismissals follow the removal earlier this week of the head of the national police by Mr Lugo - a centre-left former Roman Catholic bishop.[...] Presidential spokesman Augusto Dos Santos told the Associated Press that Mr Lugo, who was sworn in on 15 August, had signed 30 decrees naming new commanders of the armed forces.[...] The former bishop said soldiers would carry out humanitarian tasks for the poor and "never again ... be used to repress or harass" people."

Given that Paraguay had the longest dictatorship of any South American country in the 20th century, and that even after Stroessner was removed the military remained in control for another four years, Lugo's move can be seen as nothing less than wonderful. I don't believe the military was any grave threat to his administration, but cleaning house in an effort to completely remold the military's role in Paraguay is an excellent way to start his administration.

Prospects Facing Fernando Lugo and Lula Over Electricity

This Friday, Fernando Lugo, the "leftist" president-elect of Paraguay, will take office, marking the first time in over 55 years that neither the military nor the Colorado party has been in the presidency. I commented before on the issues he might be facing upon the beginning of the administration, but I think the Economist reiterates a lot of the points already made pretty well. The one thing I would add is that, at least right now, I don't see much trouble erupting over the Itaipu issue. Certainly, Brazil and Lula are interested in maintaining their low rates with Paraguay in their joint-deal for electricity from the dam. However, Lula's nothing if not the consummate polite diplomat. Through his 5 and a half years as president, he has consistently negotiated with any and every country that might help Brazil, all while respecting the countries he negotiates with.

This was certainly the case when Bolivia nationalized its oil. When that happened, the outcry from O Globo and the middle class was extreme; they demanded Lula cut off all aid to Bolivia and even declared that that oil was rightfully Brazil's, and that Bolivia had no right to nationalize it (nevermind the inconsistency that Brazil's own oil company and petroleum-producer, Petrobras, is nationalized). However, Lula paid attention to Morales's promise not to automatically cut countries off as long as the countries that Bolivia supplied renegotiated their deals so that Bolivia was getting fairer prices for its oil. Lula agreed, and Brazil's doing just fine.

The point of this Bolivia tangent is to say that, given how Lula dealt with Bolivia when they nationalized their oil, I don't see any reason to believe that there will be a major falling out between Paraguay and Brazil/Lugo and Lula over the Itaipu electricity issue. Lula's proven that he's open to renegotiating deals that are fair to both countries, and it seems that Lugo is also going about the issue with in a very friendly, "conciliatory" way. Of course, things could change, but it looks right now that Lugo will have much greater difficulties in dealing with internal opposition and land issues within Paraguay than electricity deals with Brazil.

Observations on Fernando Lugo's Election in Paraguay

On Sunday, Fernando Lugo, a former bishop, won the presidency in Paraguay. While some newspapers and news sources are portraying Lugo's win as just another leftist coming into office in South America, the New York Times really gets it right. Yes, Lugo's win is technically a case of a "leftist" in American parlance (which often means "center-left" in Latin America - the political skewing is our problem, not theirs), but it's a major and extremely important victory, for it finally ends the 61-year rule of the Colorado party, which had been the party of Alfredo Stroessner, Paraguay's brutal dictator for 35 years. The promise for change within Lugo's election is certainly huge, but it's still tenuous.

In this regard, I fully agree with the caution of the NYT and the Times Online. Lugo's victory, while important, was also by plurality, and he doesn't exactly have some "mandate" (except in George Bush parlance, where 51% is a "mandate"). I think the Times Online's comparison to Lula is relevant, too. Like Lula, Lugo is going to have to overcome some pretty stiff opposition, particularly given how dominant the Colorado party is within the basic state apparatus. While it may be bad for Brazil, renegotiating the Itaipu dam for Paraguay could help broaden Lugo's support along nationalist lines (though Lula has already said he won't review the treaty; that doesn't mean he won't ever, but it's definitely not going to happen easily). Lugo will definitely have to tread lightly at first, but I think there's a lot of promise here. Hopefully, he will take Lula's approach of open dialog with anybody and everybody. Paraguay probably can't benefit economically to the level that Brazil has under Lula; Paraguay simply doesn't have the presence in the global economy that Brazil already had (based on size alone) when Lula entered. Still, there is a strong chance for Lugo to turn things around, provided he works diplomatically and the opposition doesn't intentionally block any programs that could help revitalize Paraguay's economy and society.