Observations on Fernando Lugo's Election in Paraguay

On Sunday, Fernando Lugo, a former bishop, won the presidency in Paraguay. While some newspapers and news sources are portraying Lugo's win as just another leftist coming into office in South America, the New York Times really gets it right. Yes, Lugo's win is technically a case of a "leftist" in American parlance (which often means "center-left" in Latin America - the political skewing is our problem, not theirs), but it's a major and extremely important victory, for it finally ends the 61-year rule of the Colorado party, which had been the party of Alfredo Stroessner, Paraguay's brutal dictator for 35 years. The promise for change within Lugo's election is certainly huge, but it's still tenuous.

In this regard, I fully agree with the caution of the NYT and the Times Online. Lugo's victory, while important, was also by plurality, and he doesn't exactly have some "mandate" (except in George Bush parlance, where 51% is a "mandate"). I think the Times Online's comparison to Lula is relevant, too. Like Lula, Lugo is going to have to overcome some pretty stiff opposition, particularly given how dominant the Colorado party is within the basic state apparatus. While it may be bad for Brazil, renegotiating the Itaipu dam for Paraguay could help broaden Lugo's support along nationalist lines (though Lula has already said he won't review the treaty; that doesn't mean he won't ever, but it's definitely not going to happen easily). Lugo will definitely have to tread lightly at first, but I think there's a lot of promise here. Hopefully, he will take Lula's approach of open dialog with anybody and everybody. Paraguay probably can't benefit economically to the level that Brazil has under Lula; Paraguay simply doesn't have the presence in the global economy that Brazil already had (based on size alone) when Lula entered. Still, there is a strong chance for Lugo to turn things around, provided he works diplomatically and the opposition doesn't intentionally block any programs that could help revitalize Paraguay's economy and society.