At least he probably won't say how glad he is to travel to an area where they speak Latin

There's a preview of Bush's trip to Latin America, which starts Thursday in Brazil, in today's times. Throughout the article, administration officials insist that this isn't just an effort to counter some of Hugo Chavez's influence in the region, but given how little attention the region has gotten from Bush, that seems highly unlikely (although, to be fair, given the effects of North American "attention" in the past 150 years from the Rio Grande to Tierra del Fuego, lack of attention isn't always a bad thing).

From the Latin American perspective, the article emphasizes the Brazil portion of the trip (which is the first stop for Bush). The article repeatedly mentions how Lula stands to benefit from this visit, because it allows him to try to strengthen his position in the region as the leftist leader of South America over Chavez. This is only true to an extent, and is rather misleading. It is true that Brazil has and does see itself as the natural leader of the South American continent (it has the largest economy of the 13 countries here, and it takes up 2/3 of the continent). However, this isn't a simple narrative of "Lula losing out to Chavez". Lula and Chavez remain close, and even when they disagree on certain issues, they agree to disagree, instead of just duking it out (amazing what dialogue can do).

As for the concerns about the military buildup in Venezuela, I'm not sure how much of that is Lula's concern. Ceratinly, he could be genuinely preoccupied, but I doubt it rather strongly. My guess is, any complaints are coming from the military sectors instead, and not the presidential sector. As some authors have demonstrated, despite stepping down from the presidency in 1985, the military still has a very strong hand in political decisions in Brazil, so it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to know it's more the military branches than Lula who is uptight about this buildup.

Finally, by portraying the supposed struggle between Lula and Chavez for dominance on the continent (nevermind the notion that there could actually be a partnership), it ignores the internal power structures of Brazil. Lula had to try to satisfy the center in order to maintain his coalition from 2002-2006, and was perpetually assaulted (oftentimes in blatant smear campaigns with no substance) both from the right politically and from a media conglomerate opposed to him fiercely. Thus, only in his second term, with a change in Congress that gives him stronger support and the inability to be re-elected a 3rd time, can Lula hopefully begin to institute some of the changes he's sought since he ran for president in 1989. It isn't just an international contestation - Lula (and Chavez, and Bush, and EVERY president) has to negotiate domestic politics either. If anything, Lula is probably playing it brilliantly, for he can host Bush AND Chavez without any troubles, making deals with whomever in whichever way is appropriate. This alone can help Brazil advance its role in the international community, and is simply smart strategy (again, who knew DIALOGUE could be so helpful?). It's just a shame that the times ends up deciding to portray Lula as a weak figure who needs this visit from Bush to bolster his status in Latin America. Nothing could be further from the truth.