The Decision on Renan Calheiros

Today, the case of Renan Calheiros was decided, and in a 40-35 vote, the Senate absolved Calheiros, with 6 abstentions. As I mentioned last week, Calheiros was under risk of being cassated (barred from any political office) for 8 years and (obviously) kicked out of the Senate on charges of graft and corruption. The vote was tense (as its closeness should reveal), and the reports that congressmen came to fisticuffs before the vote are true (the Supreme Court had ruled that the House Representatives could attend the closed Senate session, but security wouldn't let them in at first). The vote seems rather damning in the numbers alone (theoretically, without the six abstentions, he could lose 41-40), but in reality, it wasn't quite as close. In this particular case, the six abstentions were basically votes in favor of Renan that protected the voters from openly coming out in favor of Renan. He can still probably count on at least some degree of support from 46 of his colleagues.

I'm not sure what this will mean for Lula - probably little. The goings-on of the Senate will continue as normal, I suspect, and in fact, it will actually probably let the Senate actually get back to its job, instead of dealing with this mess. Some (like Boz) see this as just further hindering Lula's efforts to legislate, but I can't agree - this case isn't going to affect how people view Lula or lead to some watershed in public perception of the Senate, and it seems most senators want to move beyond this anyways. The media may continue to play the "outrage" card (though as of right now, it's just stories of the actual vote today), and this case won't help reduce political cynicism in Brazil by any stretch of the imagination. Things certainly seemed occasionally suspicious, but the media, legal experts, and politicians went over his papers and all the allegations with a fine-toothed comb, and were never able to find anything substantial. There may have been something shady there, but to actually prove this would have been really difficult, if not impossible. I'm not sure whether Calheiros is guilty or not, and quite honestly, I don't care - his colleagues felt it worth voting his non-guilt, and that's what matters.

UPDATE: While the media last night was just reporting the story in its bare-bone facts, the media manipulation has already begun early this morning, with (who else?) O Globo taking the lead, citing several "experts" who say this will only further stoke the public's disillusionment in politicians without actually talking to any people from the "public" in what is a thinly veiled effort to further disillusion people via the power of suggestion.