And the Political Troubles Keep Piling On

...and in the wake of the decision to prosecute almost 40 politicians, including Lula's former top advisor, last week, yesterday, the Senate Ethics Committee in Brazil voted to move forward with charges that Senate President Renan Calheiros violated conduct rules in (again, allegedly at this point) accepting money from private construction companies in return for attempting to get them lucrative public works contracts. By an 11-4 vote, the ethics committee agreed to send the case to the full Senate, who will vote on the matter next week. If his colleagues find he is guilty, Calheiros will be forced to step down and will lose the right to run for any political office for 8 years.

While this has been the latest sensationalized scandal in Brazil (at least until the decision on the aforementioned 40 politicians, which temporarily took center stage), it hasn't had nearly the drama it would have had if it were tied directly to Lula.

First of all, Calheiros isn't even from the PT, but from Brazil's largest and most schizophrenic party, the PMDB (which has members that range from further-left than the PT to right-wing). While Calheiros, who agreed to ally his party in the Senate with Lula's coalition (remember: Brazil is one of the few parliamentary presidencies in the world), is an important figure to Lula in the president's efforts to pass legislation, the outcome will not make or break Lula's administration and legislative goals. Yes, if Calheiros is found guilty by his colleagues (a fact that may be aided by the fact that, since the charges broke in May, Calheiros has admitted to using a lobbyist as a middle-man in paying child support to his mistress, though Calheiros insisted it was always with his own money), Lula will have to seek a new politician from the coalition to serve as president of the Senate. But this shouldn't be that much of a problem - after all, it is still a majority ruling coalition that is politically aligned with Lula, and, should the need arise, finding a suitable replacement wouldn't be that difficult.

In some ways, it might be more difficult for Lula if Calheiros stays on. Even if he makes it through the charges, the fact that they have gotten to the point of a full-senate hearing has greatly weakened Calheiros's power in the Senate. Politicians are going to be weary of allying with him strongly, and any position he takes will automatically draw skepticism and the wonder of if there's some ulterior motive. It doesn't mean it would be impossible for Lula to get his legislation through - indeed, he's a master politician, and really doesn't need Calheiros that much. Nonetheless, it would be much easier if the coalition had a new start with a new president.

Overall, this is not as minor as a political tremor, nor is it as catastrophic as a full-blown earthquake. The ruling coalition in the Senate and Lula will make it through this (even if Calheiros does not), and the cynicism towards politicians among Brazil's populace is already so high that this will not mark some "Watergate" moment of shame.