The Social Effects of the Rains in Rio

By now, you may have heard of the devastation in Rio de Janeiro and Niteroi (across the bay from Rio de Janeiro). On Tuesday,the city received 288 millimeters (11.3 inches) of rain in a 24-hour period. Stop and think about that - nearly a foot of rain in 24 hours. The results were devastating. Well over 100 were dead before Wednesday, and that was before more mudslides in the mountainous areas buried hundreds more alive, leaving Niteroi to declare a state of emergency while Rio declared three days of mourning and dealt with destruction in the storm's wake as well. Overall, news sites and blogs alike have done a good job covering the story, and I have little to add to them in terms of the basic facts of the immediate story.

However, the deaths point directly to the social inequalities of Brazil and remind us once again how class, race, and environment are inherently tied together in this type of disaster. In Rio, the poor and marginalized were most directly impacted. This is because of the simple arrangement of urban space in Rio de Janeiro. And this isn't a recent project - state-led efforts to displace the poor from the best land in the city date back to the late-1800s. While the government has tried to improve infrastructure in the favelas (notably during Leonel Brizola's terms as governor from 1983-1987 and 1991-1994), that hasn't prevented the elites over the 20th century from buying up and developing the best land, flat and near the beach, within the city, forcing the poor to the outskirts of the city or to build the favelas along the side of the region's mountains. And when rains like this happen, what would have been a landslide that perhaps affected few suddenly turns into a catastrophe that leaves hundreds dead.

And it's really hard to blame the favelados for this. Certainly, where they build had and has very real environmental consequences, but to place the blame for this on their shoulders is to ignore the broader socio-economic realities and history of Rio for well over 100 years. Due to the enormous gap in wealth (which only increased in Brazil in the last 30 years of the 20th century), as well as increasing urbanization throughout the 20th century (the country went from 70% rural/30% urban in the early-20th century to 70% urban/30% rural by the 1980s, even as the population grew), Rio's poor have constantly found them forced to live and get by in the geographically and environmentally worst places available (the landslide in Niteroi that buried 200 was built on top of an old landfill, not exactly prime real-estate). Indeed, it's quite common to see luxurious apartment buildings in places like Sao Conrado, Tijuca, Ipanema, Botafogo, and elsewhere within direct eyeshot of a favela, making the tragedy only that much more painful for the poor. Those with the least in Rio were stripped of everything they had, within eyesight of apartment buildings housing Rio's middle- and upper-classes, resting safely on flat, solid ground.

Certainly, the rains in Rio and the loss of life are horrible and sad, no matter how you cut it. But this isn't an isolated incident, or a once-in-a-lifetime kind of disaster; it's a direct result of issues revolving around poverty and urban space. Virtually none of the dead from these rains are middle- or upper-class. They were safe in land and buildings that have been their province for generations, even while the poor were excluded, isolated, and forced to make do with the options available to them, which by and large happened to be mountainsides that could erode in heavy rainfall. Obviously, favelas do lead to environmental degradation that can result in loss of hundreds of lives; at same time, city has adopted policies since late-1800s that have forced poor to the "marginal" parts of Rio, either on outskirts and/or forcing poor to build fragile housing along moutains; thus, when there is plenty of rain, favelas suffer disproportionately while middle-class and upper-class housing is safe. And while certainly the nearly-foot of rain has led to a very high death count, these kinds of landslides are not infrequent on a smaller scale when Rio sees even moderate rainfall (which happens annually), affecting both people's lives and basic infrastructure in the city. And thanks to climate change, some climatologists predict Rio (and Brazil) can expect with much greater frequency the kind of rainfall they saw Tuesday, which will undoubtedly lead to the deaths of more of Rio's poor, all while the wealthy and well-off can look out their windows, click their tongues at the tragedy, and never think about the broader social processes that have led to such a loss of life.

Historical Image of the Day

"The Great American Subway," Mahler B. Ryder, 1969

Just Like Ali

Bill Simmons was right. The return of Tiger Woods to golf is totally bigger than the return of Muhammad Ali to boxing.....

Did you all even know that Tiger Woods was returning to golf today? Unless you are a follower of the Masters of course. Does anyone else even care? I'm again reminded how Simmons' column is one of the most embarrassing things I've ever read.

On Outsourcing Grading

This seems like a terrible idea:

[Lori Whisenant's] seven teaching assistants, some of whom did not have much experience, couldn’t deliver. Their workload was staggering: About 1,000 juniors and seniors enroll in the course each year. “Our graders were great,” she said, “but they were not experts in providing feedback.”

That shortcoming led Ms. Whisenant, director of business law and ethics studies at Houston, to a novel solution last fall. She outsourced assignment grading to a company whose employees are mostly in Asia.

Virtual-TA, a service of a company called EduMetry Inc., took over. The goal of the service is to relieve professors and teaching assistants of a traditional and sometimes tiresome task — and even, the company says, to do it better than T.A.’s can.

There are several obvious immediate objections that seem to come up here. First of all, this seems exploitative. Graduate assistants are usually very poorly paid, yet even so, I wouldn't be remotely surprised to learn that those in India were paid even less for this work. Secondly, I can't see how outsourcing anything else to India is going to help anybody; true, the assistant positions haven't been eliminated (though given the way university administrations are slashing funding to feed their bulked up administrative arms, I wouldn't be surprised if that were an outcome), but I fail to see why this is even remotely useful. Yes, the students have less work to do, but why not offer more funding to the department to fund more students who could assist the professor in this? Oh, right - the administrators are swallowing that money. And to be clear, I'm not suggesting exploiting student labor (hell, I'm a student laborer myself right now), but additional positions could simultaneously fund more students through graduate school, and leave all the students with a reasonable workload.

And it's the value of that workload that I think is what really bothers me here. Look, very few people love grading, but it's a valuable exercise for all parties involved. In terms of the students who take exams and/or write papers, grading is perhaps one of the most fertile ways to aid students' learning - if you grade with good insights regarding how to improve their work, you're not just improving their grades for the semester; you're improving the ways they think critically, thus preparing them for the world well beyond your own class (or even university). Critical thinking is one of the most important, most misunderstood, and most valuable things that students take from universities; high schools, with their standardized tests and limits imposed by policies like No Child Left Behind, certainly aren't able to offer a majority of students that kind of learning experience. At least in my opinion, it is an essential part of what students take away from universities.

And, as teaching assistants, it is an invaluable experience for the graduate students, as it helps them learn and refine how to help their own students in learning. Whisenant comments that her assistants "were not experts in providing feedback." Not to put too fine a point on it, but how in the hell does she expect them to learn how to provide feedback if their grading assignments are being shipped overseas? Learning how to assign feedback is as much a trial-and-error process for the grader as exams and writing papers are for students; over time, you learn which methods are useful for different types of students, which methods you prefer, which you are good at, etc. If the professor is expecting perfect feedback from graduate assistants, that professor has completely lost touch with the practical way that graduate school (which is, after all, an extended learning process in many ways) functions. You aren't solving the problem of addressing how to offer feedback by denying the students any chance; you're worsening the problem.

Certainly, I sympathize with the students' workload; I agree that having an average of 143 exams to grade per assistant is certainly overwhelming and unfair. But there are many solutions to this issue, and outsourcing the work to Asia seems about one of the worst solutions possible, for the students, for the assistants, and for the university itself as an institution.

More on the Catholic Church's Refusal to Acknowledge Where True Blame Lies

While a member's claims that criticisms of Pope Benedict XVI and the Church over were akin to anti-semitism are appalling, they shouldn't be surprising. After all: members of the church hierarchy have made even more outrageous claims with regards to sexual abuse within the church in the past few years, even stooping so low in 2007 as to blame...the victims.

No, seriously. I give you Bishop Bernardo Álvarez:

[Álvarez's] comments were that there are youngsters who want to be abused, and he compared that abuse to homosexuality, describing them both as prejudicial to society. He said that on occasions the abuse happened because the there are children who consent to it.

‘There are 13 year old adolescents who are under age and who are perfectly in agreement with, and what’s more wanting it, and if you are careless they will even provoke you’, he said.

The fact is, the Church leadership cannot and will not deal with this issue, doctrinally or otherwise. They will find ways to defend the hierarchy's actions and shift blame elsewhere, whether it be those criticizing the Church, or the victims themselves. That is not to indict all Catholics, or even all priests, bishops, or cardinals; indeed a very small number have been involved in this. While it seems this "small number" dominate the headlines and the policy of the Vatican, we can't lose sight of just how enormous the Catholic Church still is; to paint the entire institution as corrupt over a relative minority

At the same time, we should keep the pressure on the Church. Expecting a quick reaction is probably foolish - after all, this is the same institution that took 350 years to apologize to Galileo for condemning him, an institution whose apology for inaction during the Holocaust came 47 years after the end of the Second World War was remarkably quick for the Catholic Church. Indeed, the fact that these cases of sexual abuse in the Church have been going on for more than 3 decades indicates that it's not exactly the fastest moving institution. But that's exactly the reason why journalists and the population at large, and especially the Catholic population, must continue to pressure the Church over this issue. As appalling as the excuses and the blaming of the victims (and others) is, if we don't continue to push the issue, the Church will continue to simply brush the issue under the rug. And that's something that cannot be allowed to happen anymore.

This is the Face of Clean Coal

Or is this the face of Clean Coal?

Or perhaps this?

Or this?

Of course, these are all the faces of clean coal. Coal leads to environmental and human disasters. It leads to the death of 29 miners in West Virginia. It destroys mountains. It tears families apart.

All energy sources have negative consequences. But none so much as coal. The coal companies, especially Massey Energy, which owns the collapsed West Virginia mine, do everything in their power to avoid taking the slightest responsibility for their workers lives or for the Appalachian Mountains. They constantly lobby to weaken safety laws and then continue lobbying to weaken enforcement. They avoid basic safety measures in the mines.

The coal industry still operates in the Gilded Age. They still see their workers as expendable labor in impoverished states with high unemployment rates. They still would like to shoot union organizers and other agitators. In fact, all of Massey's mines remain non-union and Massey president Don Blankenship has threatened to shoot reporters. United Mine Workers president Cecil Roberts has compared Blankenship to the operators of the violent days of the 1910s and 20s.

The coal industry wants the nation to forget about their industry and their mines and the dead workers and the destroyed mountains. Instead, just turn on your lights and bask in coal-fired power. And they have largely succeeded. With the exceptions of mine explosions and dead workers, we have collectively forgotten about coal miners. We make fun of West Virginia rather than sympathize with the people who live there. We forget about the dangerous working conditions. We pay no attention to the fact that the coal industry basically owns the West Virginia state legislature and, to a lesser extent, Kentucky as well.

The coal industry and our relationship to it personifies many unfortunate characteristics of the United States: environmental waste, forgetting about the people who make the products that allow us to live comfortably, allowing corporations to control politics and set regulations. And the recent deaths of 29 workers won't change a bit of it. It'll be in the news for another few days, in the progressive blogosphere for another week or two, and then forgotten about by everyone except for those few of us who follow the coal industry's malevolent dealings.

Historical Image of the Day

Baton Rouge factory, owned by Esso Corporation, 1945

Why Living in New Mexico Is Exciting, Reason #8206

You encounter headlines like this: "Bernalillo halts $9 million arsenic treatment project over 'public safety' concerns". And they don't even surprise you.

More Cruel

Very late to this game, but I'm still amused by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev claiming that Russia needs to get "more cruel" with the Chechens after the subway bombings last week. Regardless of the immorality of the attacks, has Russian foreign policy ever revolved around being less cruel?

Isn't treating surrounding ethnic minorities with more cruelty just a matter of course in Russia? And isn't that kind of what helped lead the Chechens to these desperate measures to begin with?

Bob McDonnell Loves Treason--So Long As It's To Enslave Black People

Being so busy, I've been a little late to the game of slamming Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell openly supporting Treason in Defense of Slavery by restarting the state's Confederate History month in April. I've always thought we should talk about April as Treason in Defense of Slavery Month. No one has furthered this more than McDonnell. The flack he's taken has been outstanding. And somewhat surprising I guess. But he's taken heat from everywhere, making an embarrassment of himself and his state.

Regardless of what McDonnell actually thinks about these issues, and actually he probably does believe this but whatever, it's clearly a cynical political maneuver. His Attorney General, who puts the "nut" in wingnut, has been getting ton of love on conservative circuits for leading the lawsuits against the health care bill. So McDonnell wanted to get attention of his own.

This is really pretty stupid because it alienates Virginia moderates. Virginia is such a swing state now that this kind of racist culture war stuff might play to the base, but it's going to be a disaster in general elections. I don't think the suburban Washington voters went for McDonnell because they love the Confederacy. Rather, it's this kind of foolishness that will help Obama win Virginia in 2012 and help doom Republicans in the state as demographics keep changing. I'm sure this will always be popular in the rural southwestern area of the state. In Alexandria, not so much.

The responses have been fantastic. Dave Noon, my long time compadre in Treason in Defense of Slavery discussions, quoted the South Carolina fireeater John Preston's speech at the Virginia secession convention in 1861, reminding us all what secession was about:

You may, as you are at this moment doing, centralize a coercive power at Washington stronger than the Praetorian bands when the Roman eagles shadowed the earth “from Lusitania to the Caucasus,” but you cannot come nearer coalescing the people of Virginia and the people of Vermont, the people of the St Lawrence and the people of the Gulf, than did Rome to make one of the Gaul and the Dacian, the Briton and the Ionian. No community of origin, no community of language, law or religion, can amalgamate a people whose severance is proclaimed by the rigid requisitions of material necessity. Nature forbids African slavery at the North. Southern civilization cannot exist without African slavery. None but an equal race can labor at the South. Destroy involuntary labor and Anglo Saxon civilization must be remitted to the latitudes whence it sprung.

Other historians are striking as well, including the dean of Civil War history, James McPherson.

As James McPherson, dean of Civil War scholars, commented on learning of Mr. McDonnell's proclamation: "I find it obnoxious, but it's extremely typical. The people that emphasize Confederate heritage and the legacy, and the importance of understanding Confederate history, want to deny that Confederate history was ultimately bound up with slavery. But that was the principal reason for secession -- that an anti-slavery party was elected to the White House. . . . And without secession, there wouldn't have been a war." 

Ouch.

McDonnell has backtracked big time, turning himself into a national embarrassment and pretty much killing his chances of ever being a serious nominee for the presidency. He stated in his defense:

"there were any number of aspects to that conflict between the states. Obviously, it involved slavery. It involved other issues. But I focused on the ones I thought were most significant for Virginia." 

Can I give you a bigger shovel Bob?  It's really helping you out to say that slavery wasn't important to Virginia history.

He's since apologized and added a recognition of slavery to his Confederate History Month proclamation. This has the double advantage of making him look like a backsliding jerk and pissing off the Sons of the Confederate Veterans. The latter is especially important because no organization fights harder to push a sanitized version of the Civil War that erases black people from the story (except for the 3 slaves or whatever who supposedly fought for the Confederacy that the SCV puts out there like the single black person on the stage at the Republican National Convention). This helps discredit their intentionally false view of history.

All in all then, this is a positive event. It again shows the racism of the Republican Party. It demonstrates both how far we've come from idealizing the Confederacy and how far we have to go. It's an important public discussion of our collective history. And it has tremendous political advantages for the Democrats. Win-win, except to remember that one of our political parties continues to embrace barely concealed racism.

Worst Lyrics Ever?

I think we have a new winner.

Historical Image of the Day

As I now have enough time again to find and blog about historical images, the series begins again. Since we are mid-week, I am going to run a series of images of American cities for the next week and a half. These all come from the National Archives website.

Cincinnati, 1883. Like London apparently!

Baseball Predictions: Playoffs

ALDS: New York (in three) vs. Minnesota
Baseball is the sport of sustained miracles, and that is what it will take for the Central's division winner to beat the Yankees. I'm not ruling the Central completely out; I give the Yankees only a 99.9% chance of winning this. It won't even be close, though, and I'm imagining sweep here.

ALDS: Boston (in five) vs. Texas
I'm going to give the advantage here to the experienced Red Sox, but Texas will make it very interesting.

NLDS: Philadelphia (in four) vs. L.A.
L.A.'s inconsistencies and flaws will be completely victimized by a much better Phillies team. L.A. under Torre's leadership will keep it close in one game, but the series won't be close.

NLDS: Atlanta (in five) vs. St. Louis
In many ways, this would be a dream matchup - the up and coming Heyward vs. Pujols; LaRussa vs. Cox (in his last year). I think Cox's skill (direct or indirect) with pitchers is the outcome in this, as St. Louis's record will look better than it really is after they get the pleasure of beating on the Pirates and Astros all season. Braves on to the NLCS.

ALCS: New York (in 7) over Boston.
I hate to do this, but I think the Yankees take Boston again, and I expect it to be lopsided. Yankee wins will be massacres; Boston wins will be close, great games. I just can't see Boston's starters keeping them in it for four games total, and while the Yankees' bullpen seems weaker than Boston's, I'm going to fall back on Erik's Theory of Balanced Evils. Whatever the outcome, it will go 7 games; with a Democrat in the office, I'm giving it to New York.

NLDS: Philadelphia (in 5) over Atlanta.

The usual criticisms of Cox's failure to reach/win the World Series will be muted as he leaves, and he will go out as one of the all-time greats. However, Philadelphia will continue its regular-season dominance of the Braves in the playoffs, and the youth and inexperience of Atlanta will finally betray the Braves. Plus, Halladay was scary enough in the AL; he should be a real terror in the NL, and especially the playoffs. Phillies to the World Series, lining up a re-match of the 2009 Series.

World Series: Philadelphia Phillies over New York Yankees (in six).
This is where the rematch of 2009 plays out differently. With Halladay at the front end of that rotation, I'm giving it to the Phillies. New York's bullpen is spottier than Philly's, and Halladay has already proven he can be a Yankee killer. New York will make a run, but Philadelphia is going to be aided by home-field advantage, and with Halladay potentially playing 3 times (after resting a few days after his 5-game LCS while New York and Boston thrash each other across 7 games), he'll be the difference, and the Phillies win it in 6 this year.

Tomorrow: random fun predictions for the baseball season.

Movie Review: They Killed Sister Dorothy

Taking Lyrad's suggestion, I sat down and watched They Killed Sister Dorothy last night. The documentary traces the murder of American nun Dorothy Stang in the Brazilian Amazon, and is subtly divided into three parts: the first deals with her efforts to create a new type of sustainable land-holding for the poor in the Amazon in the face of local opposition, culminating in her murder; the second part focuses on the trial of the poor gunmen accused in the murder; and the third (and longest) part focuses on the trial of a ranch-owner accused of hiring the gunmen to kill Stang. However, the documentary is far from blocky; the directors and editors do a spectacular job threading the three stories together so that it flows seamlessly, even while the three acts play out.

The background is fairly straightforward: Stang had begun mission work in Brazil in the 1960s, and had developed a plan of sustainable development in which the landless were given land to own. They could farm and clear 20% of this land as they deemed appropriate, but the other 80% (composed of rainforest) was to remain untouched. The program, or "PDS" (Sustainable Development Plan) would thus simultaneously allow landless to gain access to their own plots and prevent the destruction of the Amazonian rainforest. Stang's program received nominal support from the federal government, but also met with widespread opposition in the state of Para, as both ranchers and poor farmers were openly antagonistic to Stang and to her plan, ultimately leading to her murder.

The two gunmen involved in the murder are quickly arrested, as is a middle-man who allegedly set up the murder, and they are quickly found guilty. This is unsurprising, as anybody who studies any part of Brazil knows that the legal system is really two systems in one; a legal system for the poor, who are unable to afford wealthy lawyers, lack political connections, and are quickly condemned; and the wealthy, who are often connected to political elites (especially in states like Para), can afford elite lawyers, and who usually walk. What is curious in the Stang case is that the lawyers for Vitalmiro Bastos Moura ("Bita"), the ranch owner accused of contracting the murder, also offered his services to the poor gunmen who could not begin to pay for his services. Both gunmen refuse the lawyer's services in the 11th hour, though, suspecting they're being set up as fall guys by the lawyer so that Bita can walk free. Both gunmen admit to the killing and are sentenced, but not before implicating Bita in the murder of Stang.

This situation sets up the last half of the documentary, which focuses on Bita's trial. After admitting in their own trials that Bita had contracted the gunmen, they then say in Bita's trial that he never contracted them, and that they had acted on their own, thereby contradicting their own admissions in the earlier trial (apparently, perjury charges either do not exist in Brazil's legal system, or operate differently, I'm not sure). As the trial proceeds, Bita's conviction looks increasingly unlikely, as his lawyers raise numerous issues, including allegations (which seem patently absurd by this point in the narrative) that Dorothy had contracted murders of people in the region herself, the arrival of the FBI in questioning the gunmen, and perhaps most importantly, the defense lawyer appealing to Brazilian nationalism by portraying Stang as part of an American imperialist project that wanted to colonize its own state in the Amazon and deny Brazilians the right to their own land and to use it as they want. This aspect of the argument was particularly brilliant (if offensive), because it very well could have worked; Brazilians of all political stripes are extremely suspicious of foreign groups trying to save the Amazon, be they NGOs, government organizations, or individuals. Even the most politically astute and aware will often fly into blind suspicions and accuse NGOs of just working for the government so that the "First World" can further exploit Brazil. These arguments sometimes are nearly sensible ("why does the rest of the world get to tell us how to use our land when we can't tell the United States, or Russia, or China, how to use theirs?"), but they are often illogical or inconsistent. Nonetheless, it is one of the ways in which national identity affects Brazilians throughout the political spectrum, and by appealing to that nationalism and suspicion of the U.S., the defense lawyers were making a very astute move. I don't want to give too much away, but I'll say this: as the trial continues, I couldn't help but be wrapped up by the suspense the film-makers create, actually feeling my blood rush a bit faster as it reached the climax, even though I knew the outcome. To me, that speaks of the highest ability to weave a story and get viewers invested, and in that regard, the film was a magnificent success.

One of the more interesting aspects to me was seeing just how Brazil's criminal legal system functions in trials. I had my own extensive experience with the Brazilian legal system, but it was much different than the one the movie documents. It was noticably different, ranging from the ways in which witnesses were addressed to the set-up of the court itself (the charged sits isolated in the middle of the floor in front of the tribunal, separated from his defense, though apparently they can still consult him during the trial). It offered a fascinating insight into how different legal systems function, raising as many questions in my mind about how the U.S. system functions as how Brazil's does.

I had a hard time finding any flaws with the film. Certainly, as a specialist (of the dictatorship, no less), I was very curious about what Para was like in the 1960s, and how the military dictatorship might have responded to Stang's (or others like her) arrival (if they were even aware of it). I also would have liked more individual interviews with the poor in the area, both in favor of and against Stang, to get a more diverse understanding of why they viewed her the way they did, but admittedly, that's not the film's focus, and we do get a decent sampling of those voices in the first part of the film; I was just interested in getting to even more of those voices (though perhaps it will just have to wait for my own or somebody else's research).

But these are hardly serious "complaints" that undermine the quality of the film. It speaks highly of the depth and lucidity of the documentary that there are many aspects of the film I haven't even begun to go into: the legal roadblocks that Stang's friends and family encounter in their search for justice; the living conditions, hopes, and fears of those poor families who are a part of the PDS; the sheer sliminess of Bita's lawyers, who clearly overwhelm the poorly-paid prosecutors as representative of how the wealthy benefit in Brazil's justice system; and many other aspects. The movie manages to cram a lot of detail and information into the narrative while never overloading the senses or overwhelming the viewer with information, making it an excellent documentary for specialists on Brazil even while being completely accessible to everyday viewers. I cannot recommend this film strongly enough, whether you're interested in the environment, social justice, Latin America, legal suspense (the story outdoes anything most authors of crime/legal suspense novels could ever offer, even when you know the outcome), or just the documentary format.

Erik's 2010 Baseball Predictions

My life has been completely insane for the last month. But things are settling down and I'll be back blogging.

I'll start with my 2010 baseball predictions.

AL East
1. Tampa 95-67
2. Boston 94-68
3. New York 92-70
4. Baltimore 76-84
5. Toronto 75-87

Tampa and Boston are both well put together teams. Obviously, I'm projecting New York in 3rd partially out of wishful thinking. But it's important to remember how incredibly lucky the Yankees were last year. Other than Alex Rodriguez missing the start of the season, they had no injuries to speak of. Moreover, their old players all had great years. Posada turned back what seemed to be inevitable decline. Jeter had one of the best years of his career. Rivera is of course timeless. All the new guys worked out well. They were really good, but also really lucky. I don't see that luck holding this year. They are very old. That said, they are still really good. I like the Granderson trade, Teixeira is awesome, and the pitching staff should be good enough. Baltimore is improving but a year away from being a .500 team. Toronto could be better than people expect because they have real mashers in Lind and Snider. But the pitching staff is obviously shaky without Halladay. Nonetheless, they did very well for themselves in their offseason trades.

AL Central
1. Minnesota 84-78
2. Chicago 82-80
3. Detroit 81-81
4. Cleveland 73-87
5. Kansas City 71-89

The division of blah. I don't think losing Joe Nathan is a huge deal, so that's why I have them still in 1st. Obviously Chicago or Detroit could sneak in there, but those are aging teams. Cleveland and Kansas City are a long ways away.

AL West
1. Texas 89-73
2. Seattle 84-78
3. Anaheim 81-81
4. Oakland 75-87

The trendy pick this year is for my Mariners. While I love everything they've done since firing Bavasi (though they should have gotten more for Brandon Morrow than Brandon League), they overachieved like crazy last year. This year, they put together the best team they could with the existing market. I love that team, but I don't think that makes them much better than last year. Given their overachievement last year, particularly when considered in terms of run differential, they could be better than last year and have about the same record. This team is built around Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee being lights out and Lee is already banged up and on the DL. While they could have an amazing pitching staff in the 2nd half if Erik Bedard comes back strong, they won't score many runs. By which I mean virtually zero. I expect a lot of Ichiro getting on and Figgins getting him to 2nd or 3rd and then 3 straight outs. And really, that's kind of OK given where they were 2 years ago.

Meanwhile, Texas is coming together as a strong team, though I find the pitching staff with much to prove. Anaheim lost an awful lot. Replacing John Lackey with Joel Pineiro is not a good switch. Some believe Oakland could be good. I am not one of them.

NL East
1. Philadelphia 99-63
2. Atlanta 88-74
3. Florida 87-75
4. New York 78-84
5. Washington 70-92

Philadelphia is probably the best team in the game this year. Atlanta and Florida are also both on the rise. New York is a mess. I would say that I can't imagine Omar Minaya lasting the year, but this is the Mess we are talking about. Washington is slowly improving but is so far away.

NL Central
1. St. Louis 94-68
2. Cincinnati 82-80
3. Chicago 81-81
4. Milwaukee 80-82
5. Pittsburgh 75-87
6. Houston 70-92

St. Louis is the cream of the division. However, the Reds are massively improved and have a very exciting young team. Both the Cubs and Brewers could theoretically compete, but I am skeptical. The Pirates are slowly getting on the right track. The Astros are a disaster--old but still trying to compete, and with arguably the worst GM and the worst farm system in the game. They will be bad for a long time.

NL West
1. Colorado 87-75
2. San Francisco 84-78
3. Los Angeles 83-79
4. Arizona 79-83
5. San Diego 77-85

I like the Rockies quite a bit. Now that they have figured out how to win in that stadium, they have a very competitive team. The Giants have amazing pitching, but can't hit. They are much like the Mariners, except they aren't quite as good (no Ichiro there!) and their division is significantly easier. Los Angeles could be be good but there are too many off field distractions. It's rare to see a team like Arizona--so many amazing prospects 4-5 years ago and almost none of them turned out to be as good as advertised. The Angels are a bit like this too and starting to suffer because of it. San Diego played great at the end of last year, but they are a bit overmatched.

While I'm sure I'm wrong about much of this, I only hope to be less wrong than Trend.

Trend's Baseball Predictions - The National League

With AL predictions out of the way, it's time to move on to the NL. I think there will be a much greater division between the good and the bad here (no completely-mediocre division like the AL Central). Here are my predictions.

NL East
1. Philadelphia (95-67)

2. Atlanta* (89-73)
3. NY Mets (87-75)
4. Florida (77-85)
5. Washington (68-92)

Few changes to last year's NL Champions, except they now have the (healthy) Roy Halladay rather than the (hurt) Cliff Lee, and they have him for the whole season; this should be a wash (though they play the games for a reason). I think Atlanta's going to be an absolute blast, this year; they have again returned to an extremely solid lineup of young (and good) pitching, and Jason Heyward looks so exciting. And I'm not usually an "intangibles" guy, and certainly Bobby Cox is downplaying this being his last year of coaching, but he is a coaching genius, and I think the players, inadvertently or not, may end up going above and beyond the call of duty for Cox's last year, giving the team just enough to make the playoffs. I could be wrong, and perhaps it's almost too perfect, but this just seems right for this year; I think the planets (and the young talent) will line up perfectly for Atlanta. The Mets are....the Mets. I think they'll be healthier this year, but I don't think that will be enough, and given that they've seem to taken on the "Indians-lite" identity in terms of heartbreak, and I expect their fans' hearts will be broken late once again. I know Florida finished last year 87-75; I admit to knowing little about them, but even on paper, they look better than 77-85. I'm just going with my gut (as well as the suspicion that an injury here or there will hurt them much more than other teams), and putting them lower this year. And Washington...well, at least they are back on a path of rebuilding with direction, having cleaned out the front office and putting the Bowden/Dominican player-ripoff issues behind them. And they can look forward to Stephen Strasburg playing in the not-too-distant future, too.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71)
2. Cincinnati Reds (84-78)
3. Chicago Cubs (80-82)
4. Milwaukee (78-84)
5. Pittsburgh (72-90)
6. Houston (71-91)

I don't know why, but I continuously find this the least captivating division in baseball. The Cubs saga is beyond tired (and predictable); the Cardinals are almost boringly-good, and between their pitching, LaRussa's skill, and Pujols and Holliday in the middle of the lineup, I expect them to take it yet again (and I don't think McGwire will be a distraction - indeed, I suspect the offense may be better under him). Cincinnati could very well be in the push for the Wild Card towards the end, but I don't think they have quite enough. Milwaukee could be a dark horse, though I don't think they have quite enough pieces for a late-season push. Pittsburgh will once again finish below .500, but I think the fact that they finally seem to have some direction and vision in how they're putting that team together should bring hope to fans (and I say this as somebody who's tried to find hope since he was aware sports existed). And I admit to knowing little about Houston's farm system, but they didn't have any pieces last year, they didn't make any big moves this offseason, and I haven't really heard of any young studs coming up from their farm system. I could be surprised, but right now, at least, I expect them to be pretty bad yet again.

NL West
1. Los Angeles (90-72)
2. Colorado (87-75)
3. San Francisco (87-75)
4. Arizona (76-86)
5. San Diego (75-87)

This should be baseball's most competitive (good) division. The Giants showed a lot of surprise for people last year, and will make a push for the Wild Card and Division. The Dodgers are another year older, and there are some important question marks in their lineup and pitching staff, but this should be pretty easy compared to the crap Torre had to put up with in NY. If Troy Tulowitzki stays healthy and that young pitching staff can stay as good as they were last year, they'll be in the thick of things. I think Arizona and San Diego are still too far off, but both will make things complicated for the other three as their young stars start to bloom. I think Colorado/San Francisco are left out of the Wild Card because the West is tough, while Atlanta should be able to beat up on Washington and Florida with relative ease. This will be a really fun division to watch through the year, though.

Tomorrow, playoff predictions.

Film Review--World's Greatest Dad (2009)

I ordinarily go out of my way to avoid films that star Robin Williams, but when there’s a second directorial effort by Bob Goldwait, I don’t care if it stars Paris Hilton and Miley Cyrus (actually, that might be brutally funny). The last time I saw a film he directed was 1991’s Shakes the Clown, which certainly has its detractors, but is one of my very favorite comedies. His brand of humor (if we forget his turn in the miserable Police Academy movies) veers sharply into the dark and me; he never for a second pretends like it’s going to be nice. Those were certainly my expectations going into World’s Greatest Dad, but it’s shocking to find those expectations not only met, but resoundingly exceeded. Is that a good thing? Is it funny? Depends on whom you ask.

Williams plays Lance Clayton, a failing writer and failing father. He has written four novels with no takers, and has resolved to quit writing if he can’t get his fifth published. His son, Kyle (Daryl Sabara), is about the biggest scumbag kid you’ll ever have the displeasure to meet. Because he’s such a little dickhead, everybody at school treats him badly, which causes him to act worse, and it becomes a never-ending escalation of shitty behavior. Lance is the poetry teacher at Kyle’s’ high school, but all of it goes over his head. His self-absorbedness makes him blind to everything except the fact that none of the kids give a damn about his poetry class and his belief that his girlfriend is cheating on him with the physics teacher, which he thinks he sees all too clearly, though he shudders to admit it to himself.

Just as he starts to think that things have started to turn around, he comes home from a date to find Kyle dead--autoerotic asphyxiation (naturally). In spite of his grief, a light comes on in his head. He cleans Kyle up, dresses him, hangs him in the closet, and types out an overly eloquent suicide note. After the initial shock of his death, the school publishes the note and, all of a sudden, everybody was his best friend. He becomes a martyr in the minds of the students and, now, Lance can rewrite Kyle’s life…literally.

Especially when they die young, people have a tendency to lionize the dead (see Kurt Cobain or Pat Tillman). The real story never matters as much as the narrative, and Goldwait skewers this attitude brilliantly. People begin to clamor for more details of Kyle’s life, so Lance starts to release pieces of “Kyle’s” journal and, eventually, publishes it as a book. He’s able to turn Kyle not only into a misunderstood genius, but also into everything Lance. Among other things, he makes Kyle’s favorite musician is Lance’s: Bruce Hornsby, a beautiful running gag that culminates in an appearance from the artist and a live solo performance of “Mandolin Rain.” As confusing as some of the details are to the students, they accept them without question. Lance makes himself relevant through his son and his life feels like it has meaning, even though it’s all shallow and based on lies.

Over the years, Goldwait has been something of a Comedy Central darling, directing episodes of Crank Yankers, The Man Show, Chappelle’s Show, and currently Important Things with Demetri Martin. Though this experience, the comedian has clearly developed his chops. Improvement is readily apparent in every aspect of the filmmaking, from the performances to the pacing to the camerawork. Where Shakes was this weird anomaly and technically deficient despite its charms, World’s Greatest Dad moves well and makes sense from start to finish. The screenplay, which he also wrote, is full of great quotes and surprisingly realistic dialog. The film flows really well, providing some very dry laughs up until the suicide (a gut-wrenching scene of emotional cruelty), and then moving into some truly brutal territory. At this point, the comic foils change from Lance, Kyle, and their poor relationship to the world at large. As a two-act story, the switch makes a lot of sense. All the conflict lies within Lance, and the people at large follow along because, as against logic as all of it is, they choose to believe what he tells them about Kyle; they decide not to question his stories. Robin Williams does really well in his role, better than I could have expected, which may have more to do with the fact that I can more easily swallow an actor I don’t like playing a hateable character more than anything special he did.

In the end, World’s Greatest Dad is a good comedy, if not a great one. On the strength of the writing, there is plenty of repeat value, but Goldwait is not Fritz Lang, and for as much improvement as he displays, there are some limitations in the film. Mainly, we have the issue of a complete lack of likeable characters. In Heathers, the king of modern black comedy, at least we know that Veronica Sawyer is an inherently good person and, for all that goes on, easily redeemable. There are no secrets for us about Lance Clayton. When he says, “You guys didn’t like Kyle. That’s okay. I didn’t either. I loved him. He was my son, but he was also a douchebag.” we know that the acorn doesn’t fall far from the tree, and that’s a problem. It would have been fine if we thought he was decent and Goldwait pulled the rug out from under us, but Lance goes from totally pathetic to an utter asshole, so we still have the question of why we’d want to watch these characters torture each other. To my taste, the film is extremely smart and funny, if not nice, and that’s enough for me. Your mileage may vary; it will solely depend on your tolerance for assholes being assholes to other assholes. It’s well worth watching, though; Bob Goldwait is a unique voice in comedy and his films are almost singular in their dark hilarity.

Trend's Baseball Predictions - The American League

As America's annual national nightmare finally comes to an end tomorrow night, it seems like a good time to embarrass myself again by trying to predict how the baseball season will shake down, with the AL today, NL predictions tomorrow, and playoff predictions on Monday.

AL East

1. New York Yankees (98-64)
2. Boston Red Sox* (94-68)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (88-74)
4. Baltimore Orioles (84-78)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (72-90)

It kills me to pick the Yankees, but they looked really good last year, even with distractions (questions about Rodriguez's use of performance enhancers, the usual Steinbrenner-lite distractions), and I don't see them failing to replicate that performance this year. I'm not yet convinced Burnett will be as good as he was last year, but he proved me wrong last year, so who knows. Yes, they're another year older, but they just look really strong. Red Sox are right behind them, I think. I'm curious to see how the small-ball approach they seem to be taking will work out in Fenway; I don't think it will fail, but I am interested in seeing if it's a noticeable difference from the days of Ramirez-[good] Ortiz-Drew-Lowell. The Rays suffer from being in a really, really good division; I think they'll be game, but just won't make it this year. The Orioles have done a great job assembling a young corps of hitters, and it looks like pitching is finally catching up, too (in a 100%-related story: Peter Angelos is keeping his mitts off the everyday-decisions). They in no way will make a run for the title or even the Wild Card, but they will really make things interesting and tough for the rest of the division. Meanwhile, I expect the Jays' rebuilding efforts to not be enough to overcome their raw talent, and it will be a typical losing-season for rebuilding teams.

AL Central

1. Minnesota (86-76)
2. Detroit (84-78)
3. Chicago (84-78)
4. Kansas City (83-79)
5. Cleveland (80-82)

This is the toughest division to pick, just because it's just such a high rate of mediocrity. Nobody jumps out as an obvious choice to win the division; Minnesota is missing a closer, the Sox don't have a lot of offense, there are some real questions about the back-end of the Tigers' rotation and their bullpen's health, the Royals are an enigma in the hitting and the non-Greinke pitching areas, and the Indians are rebuilding. This will probably be the weakest division in all of baseball; I expect nobody to emerge here, as well as other divisions to take advantage and pound the Central. I'm going to go with Minnesota, just because their issues seem the slightest within the Central. I expect Ozzie Guillen to be increasingly frustrated with what will probably be a lot of 2-1 losses. I can't even begin to figure out Detroit, especially after that collapse last year. I'd even say the Indians are going to be completely out of the running, but with spring suggesting that Hafner, Sizemore, and (most importantly) Carmona back in their old forms, the chance for LaPorta and Brantley to start getting regular starts, and an arsenal of young hitters and arms who could be called up later in the season, it's impossible to even completely rule out the Indians (though it seems highly unlikely). Even if they are terrible this year, I like that we apparently have the only manager who cites VORP in his decisions when talking to journalists. Overall, I think it will be a close race to the end, much like last year, and given the mediocrity of each team on paper, I wouldn't be surprised to see all five teams actually in it until the end. That's not to say any one looks good or the division is that good; quite the opposite, in fact. Still, if things play out the way they seem they could (and they probably won't), it will be entertaining until the bitter end, when the "winner" can go on and get swept out of the ALDS.

AL West
1. Texas (90-72)
2. Anaheim (89-73)
3. Seattle (87-75)
4. Oakland (71-91)

I was all set to put Seattle on the top of this list, but then Lee got hurt with the same type of injury that ended up derailing his 2007 season, and I couldn't do it. I think it will be a really close race in this division, with Seattle and Anaheim in contention throughout, but I think the Rangers may have it in them this year. Oakland is going to be game, but I just think don't have it in them, and as long as they're playing in Al Davis's mausoleum, the Raiders' stink is going to affect them. That said, I don't have a lot of conviction on the Rangers, and I suspect that whoever wins it, it will go down to the wire.

Continuing to Pursue Human Rights Violators in Peru

Peru has done an excellent job of late going after those military leaders and politicians who in the past supported crimes against humanity, including sending former-president Alberto Fujimori to jail for what will most likely be the rest of his life.

In spite of accomplishing this high-profile sentencing, Peru's legal system has not rested on its laurels, and now prosecutors are going after three generals for their role in the murders of 36 university students:

There is more than enough evidence to convict three generals and other army officers in the kidnapping and murder of 36 university students from the highlands city of Huancayo in Peru between 1989 and 1993, Víctor Lizárraga of the National Human Rights Coordinator (CNDDHH) told IPS.

Charges in the case were brought on Mar. 8 against Generals Manuel Delgado, Luis Pérez and David Jaime Sobrevilla, who during those years commanded the army's 31st infantry brigade based in Huancayo, in the central region of Junín, where the Universidad Nacional del Centro (UNC) is located.

But details from the prosecutor's charge sheet are just coming out now.

The UNC students, suspected of belonging to or sympathising with the Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) or Tupác Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) guerrillas, were killed during one of the bloodiest periods of the 1980-2000 civil war between the leftist rebels and government forces.

Some critics may point to the fact that the students were "suspected" of alliances to armed leftist movements in order to justify the military's actions in the 1980s and 1990s, but "suspicion" is not equated to guilt; those students who were murdered were never given a fair shot at a trial in the way the generals are. As for the likelihood that the generals will be found guilty, the prosecution's case seems strong, drawing on military documents, as well as accounts from students who managed to escape military captivity, to demonstrate the methodical approach the military used in kidnapping and killing students. And as for the potential success or failure of that approach, the prosecution seems in good shape, given that a similar approach resulted in Fujimori's guilty verdict:

"Prosecutor Carlos Carhuancho is accusing the generals of authorising the murders - the same formula used to convict former president Alberto Fujimori for the Barrios Altos and La Cantuta massacres, committed by the Army Intelligence Service," which was under the president's command, said Lizárraga of the CNDDHH, which represents the victims' families.

Given the success in the past with this method, plus what appears to be overwhelming evidence against the generals, this will hopefully result in another victory for human rights in Peru, even if it cannot bring back those who were wrongly murdered.

Your Childhood Rides to School Were Lame

Those are Colombians from an isolated part of the country using the fastest way available to them to get from their isolated village to the nearest town. The wires are more than 1300 feet above the river below, and those who cross the valley on them reach speeds of 40 miles per hour. The cables provide transportation for farmers taking goods to the town, as well as others, including schoolchildren:

More than 1,300ft above the roaring Rio Negro in Colombia, nine-year-old Daisy Mora prepares to throw herself over the abyss.

Attaching herself to an old and rusted pulley system she drops over the edge before plummeting at 40mph along a zip wire to the opposite bank half a mile away - a vertigo-inducing journey she has to take every day to get to school.

Suddenly, any stories that you, your parents, or any others may have had it about how hard it was to go to school "when I was your age" have been rendered completely foolish.