Bali

I was out of town for most of the Bali talks so I couldn't comment as they were happening. But I see that lots of smart people are optimistic coming out of them. Kate Sheppard argues that "the rest of the world proved this weekend that they aren't going to let the U.S. stand in the way any longer." Tom Athanasiou states, "So it's with great relief that I'm able to say that, judging at least by Bali, the game has indeed changed -- except, of course, for the United States." John Quiggin goes so far as to say, "The outcome of the international climate talks in Bali has been a huge win for the planet."


I'm not disagreeing with any of this per se. But I think it was a step and little more. Everyone knows that nothing will be done until Bush leaves office. The rest of the world showed some willingness to leave the United States behind. This is all good. But nothing binding came out of the conference. China is supposed to pursue emissions-cutting actions. Does anyone really believe they will? There is an agreement in principle that emissions should be cut in half by 2050. That would be awesome. What happens when the nations sit down and decide how that is going to happen? If there are technological solutions that will drastically cut emissions, maybe such a goal is possible. What if those technological solutions don't make up for continued growth by India, China, Brazil, and the rest of the developing world? Who will make the necessary sacrifices?


I have little belief that American consumers will, that's for sure. Take for example Andrew Martin's Times article on the rising price of American food because of biofuels. My God, someone at Whole Foods actually had to use a coupon! How low-class!!! And the price of Rogue beer threatens to go even higher, all the way to the point that only the wealthiest 1% will be able to enjoy it, instead of the top 2% who can now. Now, there's no question that ethanol has its problems. It is most certainly not the solution for either climate change or the U.S. energy supply. But more importantly for my point, at the slightest hint of a drop in the standard of living, we throw a fit. The sacrifices necessary to battle climate change will make slightly higher food prices look as bad as hitting all red lights on the way to work.


The Bali talks were definitely a good thing, even without American cooperation. But I remain skeptical as to whether humanity will take the necessary actions to fight climate change in an even rudimentary way. Still, even I have become ever so slightly less pessimistic after last week.