Wednesday, July 01, 2009

OAS Condemnation

With the Organization of American States uniting to condemn the Honduran coup, I don´t see how it can survive. The United States is the only nation to show any reservation; given our significant military and economic investment there, I guess it´s not surprising. The US can always play these cards later. However, I´m a bit concerned by Obama´s moderation on the matter. It´s a clearcut case of democracy versus old-style military regimes that are no longer credible. I guess I´m really expressing a touch of frustration with Obama´s middle of the road politics more generally; in fact, sometimes he seems to value this as a thing of itself. If the U.S. cuts off aid, combined with the rest of the world condemning the coup, Zelaya is sure to return to power within a day or two. So long as the U.S. remains willing to continue in Honduras as normal, the coup could survive.

Nonetheless, it seems clear that the coup is in its final days. Its leaders are talking a big game about arresting Zelaya and fighting to the bitter end, but it´s hard to take this very seriously. They are probably in face-saving mode as we speak and are hoping to get away from this with the pre-coup status quo in tact.