Costa Rica approves CAFTA membership

If early reports are to be trusted (and I'm not seeing any reason at this point why they shouldn't be), Costa Rica's referendum on joining CAFTA passed yesterday by a 52-48 percent victory. While this is far from an overwhelming victory, it does matter for Arias, as he had pretty much his entire governmental plan staked on its passage.

I'm not sure what this will mean for Costa Rica. Given how free trade and neoliberal policies in general have worked, I suspect it will be negative overall. Some may see victory in that some of the agricultural products of Costa Rica will have greater access to the U.S. market, particularly pineapple (as of right now, Hawaiian pineapple is far cheaper in the U.S., due to tariffs imposed on Costa Rican imports, which may now be reduced). Certainly, the country's general GNP may go up. However, those who will probably benefit the most are the foreign companies (such as Chiquita, which is responsible for so much of the pineapple and banana production in Costa Rica). Costa Rican farmers themselves could very well suffer heavily from this election, as has happened in so many other countries that have voted for free trade agreements (which have led to large companies coming in on the cheap and taking over, or futhering their control). I really fail to see how this is going to help the 900,000 Costa Ricans (in a nation of about 4 million) who are impoverished.

On the other hand, I agree with Boz, too - having failed in this election, there is little else the anti-free-trade coalition will be able to rally around, and it will probably dissipate in the very near future, torn by the ideological divisions that exist within it (as it does range from the far left to the far right). I lived in Costa Rica in the 2002 elections, when free trade was already becoming a major issue, and while I saw the movement in its incipient phase, it was already clear that it was basically bringing together political ideologues and everyday people that otherwise would have nothing to do with each other politically (radical university students, politically moderate small- and mid-sized business owners, and right-wing hacendados otherwise have very little they can agree upon).

At any rate, this is in no way an irreversible decision, and things could work out, especially because Costa Rica is not dependent strictly on exportation of agrigultural and technological products (it has an Intel plant there) - it makes a large portion of its annual income via the ecotourism business. However, I do fear what the short- and mid-term (and maybe long-term) effects could be on Costa Rica. Either way, it will be worth keeping an eye on to see how things turn out.