Thailand

I'm so far from surprised that the Thai coup is falling apart. You mean that if you support a military coup but don't support it brutally crushing the opposition, that it might not work? The forces of Thaksin, the country's leader who was overthrown, are on the rebound. The coup is divided between hard-liners and more moderate elements and support for the military government from the crown seems to be dwlinding. Corruption is as bad in the military regime as under Thaksin. Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont had to reshuffle his cabinet recently because of the corruption of several of his ministers.

There are several possibilities here. The best is that elections scheduled for December go forward and are relatively peaceful. The worst is a hard-line coup from elements who really want Thailand to be like Burma, but with tourism and foreign investment. The reality I think is that it will lean toward the former rather than the latter. Thailand has an awful lot to lose from a brutal military takeover and the King occupies a position of respect that no one in Burma can lay claim to. Moreover, large sections of the public, particularly the nation's innumerable poor, love Thaksin and so there is a popular backlash against the coup as well.