Democrats--Still in a Good Place

I disagree somewhat with Paul Starr's assessment that the Democrats may have lost their favored status in the 2008 race. I suppose he's writing a cautionary tale here more than really thinking the Democrats are going to lose. And he's probably smart for doing that. We all need to hear it.

But I still think the Democrats are in great shape for the election. The battles between Obama and Hillary will fade away quickly once the nominee is decided, which could be fairly quick if Obama can't pull out some wins in the next 2 weeks. Starr worries that the Democratic base could lose their enthusiasm for the candidate, but I don't think that will happen. It's true that the netroots has no love lost for Hillary but only a complete freaking idiot would vote for a 3rd party candidate this time around. Unless people have learned nothing from the past 8 years, they realize that electoral politics is how change happens in this country and that another 4 years of a Republican president means the likely overturning of Roe, likely war with Iran (particularly if McCain if the winner), economic policies that serve the top 1%, and other unspeakable damage.

McCain seems like a tough candidate. But I'm not as convinced as most people on this. First, he's campaigned with relatively little energy. That's been overshadowed by the joke that is Grandpa Fred. But he's an aging man and he shows it. Second, he's not a nice guy. Americans have not seen McCain day after day on the media. He's known for exploding at reporters. How will that play? What will happen after his inherent meanness comes out? Third, his membership in the Keating Five provides a major theme that should undermine his straight talk narrative. It's old, but I think effective. Fourth, he will be campaigned in the shadow of the Bush disaster. Troop levels will have to come down in Iraq before the election--what will happen there? Look at the economy. McCain has no economic plan and is likely to fall back on standard Republican staples. Will voters want another 4 years of Republican economics? The Democrats will have the advantage on every single issue--Iraq, the economy, health care, immigration.

The Democrats, particularly if Clinton if the candidate, will have to overcome the media's collective erection for McCain. But the more people know Hillary, the more they like her. The media influences our elections, but it doesn't decide them. I feel that something bad could happen. But I don't think it will. Regardless of the nominees, I predict a Democratic landslide in the fall.