The Failure of the Thai Coup

The Siam Sentinel has some interesting observations on the failure of the Thai coup. If you remember a year ago, the Thai military committed a coup d'etat to get rid of Thaksin, the nation's populist prime minister. Thaksin was loathed by the country's elite and rising middle class, but beloved by the large rural populace. They hated him for what he stood for and who he represented, but also widespread corruption (likely true) and his inability to crush the rebellion from the Muslim dominated southern provinces.

"The palace-backed coup d’etat achieved almost nothing. Though the new constitution allows many of the senators to be appointed, one would have expected the generals who led the coup to have done more with their time in Government House. They not only failed to crush Thaksin’s powerbase, they may have alienated a large number of their one-time supporters. The general impression is that the coup, though initially seen as a positive, has been bad for Thailand. The generals demonstrated a lack of competence in economic policy, failed to bring peace to the South, and engaged in shady deals (though few Thai newspapers have openly labeled these dealings corruption). Though there are still fears that other opportunistic generals could stage another coup in the near future, the military will now have a harder time justifying its actions. But does the failure of the Sonthi-Surayud government also highlight the waning power of the royal palace?"

I kind of doubt this last bit. One cannot overestimate the influence of the King on all aspects of Thai life. He is aging and I understand the next king has authoritarian tendencies that are likely to be controversial. On the other hand, the palace backed the coup and the coup leaders were turned out in the recent vote.

Coup leaders lacked the will and political power to change Thai politics permanently. The problem with a coup is that if you don't have the ability to oppress the opposition, you become a joke when you find out that the populace doesn't support you. This is what happened in Thailand. Coup leaders inability to solve any of the problems of the Thaksin, combined with his party's continued popularity among the rural poor, doomed the coup. Good riddance.