Film Review--Contempt (1964)

In general, to make a film satire work, the writer and director have to pull next to all the emotion away; it’s not easy to laugh sardonically at characters you care about. When the film relies on a doomed romance to move its plot, satire seems untenable. Yet, you can throw all generalities out the window when discussing great filmmakers. Contempt proves the viability of such an idea, but I’d never try such a thing myself. Jean-Luc Godard masterfully balances emotional weight with barbed commentary to create the saddest film ever to work as a satire.

Godard pulls out all the stops in the casting department, making it immediately appealing to classic film fans, both today and in 1964. Our leads and players in this fallen love are Brigitte Bardot (by no means a great actress, but always fun to watch, and is at her pouty, self-parodying best here) and Michel Piccoli (a staple actor of the French New Wave with a filmography so large that the Carradines flinch). Piccoli, as a playwright, is getting his first taste of Hollywood screenwriting or, at least, script doctoring. He’s been hired by producer Jack Palance (playing a man out of his league intellectually, artistically, every way but financially) to fix a version of Homer’s Odyssey that director Fritz Lang (playing himself in what would have been a caricature if Lang himself wasn’t such a nut) has turned into an artsy mess. This setup allows Godard to show the filmmaking process onscreen. While this is a world few members of the audience will understand, the director’s intimate knowledge of and acidic venom toward the industry come out in very clear storytelling. The film is instantly relatable for this, especially if you’re familiar with the myriad of horrid American-funded international productions common in the ‘50s and ‘60s (see, not coincidentally, the 1959 version of Ulysses with Kirk Douglas). We get to see the daily progress on Lang’s film, and it gets increasingly ridiculous. He’s creating something that appears closer to an Ed Wood film than to M, but hey, Lang’s just in it for the money at this point. Lang revels in his performance of himself mailing it in, while Palance prostrates, yelling and screaming about the film, but insisting it continue on unimpeded. Lang throws up his hands and follows along, Piccoli looks increasingly bemused as he wonders how he got himself mixed up in this horrible industry, and Palance’s assistant (the incredibly charming Giorgia Moll) spends her time trying to keep peace amongst all parties while serving as Palance’s whipping post for all his frustration.

As satire, all of this works very well, and that’s fine. What the supporting story brings to the table, however, is what makes Contempt a classic. Bardot and Piccoli make an attractive couple and, in the opening moments of the film, they are very clearly in love. The kind of tender bedroom placations Godard uses to show us this are simple but effective. Bathed in a thick red light, the lovers lay together as Bardot asks Piccoli if he loves this or that part of her body, while Piccoli comes up with florid words to tell her he does. There is a sweet post-coital serenity here that I hope they enjoyed, because it doesn’t last. By morning, Piccoli must meet his producer, and there will be no more peace. Bardot comes with him and, moments after the meeting, we can already see the end coming. A single incident starts the chain and, while it’s a simple misunderstanding to Piccoli, it’s a deal-breaker for Bardot. She isn’t in a position yet to express her thoughts, however, so she stews. Every perceived slight compounds the issue until finally, Bardot has had enough. Piccoli isn’t some confused cuckold; he knows something is deeply wrong in their relationship; he simply loves her too much to let her leave without a fight. The final split is heartbreaking, but after all the torment, becomes necessary. That the end of the relationship is no surprise only makes it hurt worse. Like a spurned lover, the audience hopes against hope that, looking down the barrel of dead romance, they will find a way to be happy. The devastation lies in its inevitability. Does Bardot deserve her comeuppance? No, she’s done very little wrong, but Godard leaves us with no doubt that the relationship is over, no chance for redemption, and this is ultimately the point.

I have described two wholly different films, but the stories intersect enough that they never feel like different entities. Picolli finds meaning in his relationship by reading Homer’s Odyssey, and he interprets the epic poem based on his relationship. The stories work in conjunction in many ways, not just this, and they work very well. I found myself at turns delighted by the absurdity and the satire, but angered and frustrated by the romance. That both sides could move me so strongly, never with the sense that either side got the shaft, this is a sign of great art.

Is the Rooney Rule Actually Helping Anything?

Let me start this off by saying that I in no way fault Art Rooney for the current form of the Rooney Rule, which states that teams must interview a minority candidate before hiring coaches. But what good is such a rule when teams are only paying it lip service?

The most recent example is, of course, the Seattle Seahawks, who spoke with Pete Carroll and already had a contract ready to sign before they even interviewed their "minority candidate," though they're far from the only ones (see: Browns, Cleveland, and Mangini, Eric). This is so offensive and absurd, and I can't imagine how it must feel to be somebody like Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, who was the Seahawks "minority interview." But again - Carroll's contract was already ready before Frazier even interviewed.

While Rooney's ideas were and are excellent, their spirit is being grossly violated in these "token interviews." It's clear that the Seahawks didn't want Frazier (or any other minority candidate), just as it was clear last year that the Browns (regretablly) wanted Mangini and Mangini alone. I understand that maybe Frazier did well in the interview, and is ready for future interviews (with word getting out on him among front offices). But what motivation could he really have for an interview for a job he knows he isn't getting? It would be nice if Frazier and other minority candidates refused to interview, leaving a team in limbo, but that won't happen. Instead, we get these terrible, fake interviews that only pay lip service to the rule and in no way follow its spirited effort to get more minority hires in the NFL. These tactics are a major thumb in the eye of the minority candidates and do nothing to achieve what the Rooney Rule was designed to do. I'd like to think there's a better way, but if there is, I just don't see it happening soon. Instead, teams will go after "their" guy, and diversity and the chance for promotion in the NFL will continue to be stunted, to the disadvantage of players, coaches, teams, and fans alike.

A Question

Does anybody else remember Tony Danza's stint as first-base coach for the Cardinals?

On Mark McGwire and Steroids

This really isn't a big surprise. In a perverse way, McGwire's refusal to neither acknowledge nor deny steroid-use before Congress years ago actually has, in retrospect, made him look like the most decent guy on the panel. No feigned ignorance a la Sammy Sosa; no snide, arrogant confidence of a self-proclaimed savior, like Canseco; no finger-pointing, like Rafael Palmeiro. Everybody on that panel ended up posturing in some way, save for McGwire, whose silence ended up being the most honest and decent position taken that day.

Of course, there will be self-righteous indignation, and while some writers may finally respect him for coming clean, I suspect many more will become even more self-righteously indignant. And for those who do become indignant, well, Rob Neyer has a couple of good questions for them.

For my money, he belongs in the Hall of Fame. It's fairly commonly accepted, and probably more accurate than not, that a lot of people used steroids in the 90s. As they say, it was just part of the "culture," and while you may or may not like that part of the culture, if somebody was still one of the greatest sluggers of all time within that culture (a culture that, let's not forget, saw at least as many pitchers as hitters using PEDs), well, then you were among the best of your era, and should be in the Hall. As many sane people have pointed out, it's not like PEDs weren't common in other forms prior to the 90s, and to say that players had an "advantage" in the 90s is kind of absurd for two reasons: first, if hitters and pitchers were using PEDs, doesn't that kind of re-level the playing field (albeit at a possibly higher level)?; and B) where do you draw the line on keeping people out who had "unfair advantages?" Willie Stargell used greenies - did he have an unfair advantage? Bob Gibson had a higher pitchers mound - did he have an unfair advantage? Babe Ruth never had to face Satchel Paige - did he have an unfair advantage?

Of course, these questions won't prevent the indignation of some, and they won't get McGwire into the hall of fame. But anybody who thinks this is a major strike against one of the greatest sluggers of his era, well.....I can't wait to watch you twist yourselves into pretzels once Bonds and Clemens are Hall-eligible.

Around Latin America

-The longer-term effects of Micheletti's government are becoming increasingly clear, as Honduras is facing bankruptcy and the likelihood of foreign loans. Over the past several months since the coup, Micheletti's government has been drawing on reserves with no income (and certainly, the withdrawal of foreign investment in the wake of the illegal coup and global condemnation of the Micheletti government has not helped). This has left Honduras with no way to pay creditors as Lobo enters office at the end of the month. The result is that the only solution that seems to be on the table right now is foreign loans from institutions like the World Bank and IMF. Given the legacy of loans from these institutions in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, the economic future for Honduras looks fairly bleak. It seems increasingly likely that Honduras can now expect to be paying off the financial burden of the actions of the military and Micheletti for years and years and years to come.

-In a massive step backwards, a Colombian court last week released 17 members of the Army involved in the 2008 Soacha murder case. The soldiers involved were accused of killing unemployed men from Bogota and dumping their bodies in the jungle to disguise the dead as "rebels." The fact that these 17 officers will be free from justice for their roles in the murder of numerous innocent poor Colombians is bad enough; the fact that they did so in order to up the unit's body count and qualify "for a schedule of rewards, as established by Defense Ministry orders" is even worse, as it's just another way that the Colombian government is tacitly supporting the murder of innocent civilians in the name of "security."

-Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in Colombia can lead to gruesome instances, such as the fact that dumped bodies frequently wash up along the shores of the Cauca River (among others): "While hardly Colombia's only river repository for human remains, the Cauca may well be its most prolific. It carries the bodies of drug gang toughs, of peasants dismembered by death squads, of innocents killed for being kin to somebody's rival." Now, one woman is making an effort to give the bodies the dignity in death that they did not receive in life.

-Martinique and French Guyana voted this weekend on whether they would gain greater independence from France. The referendums on increased autonomy failed in both places , in part no doubt because France can (and probably does) spend more on the two than they could spend themselves, and in part because, as the BBC article demonstrates, residents of both "departments" simply don't trust their political leaders enough to have them lead independent countries.

-Tensions in Paraguay over the possibility of a coup against Fernando Lugo continue to run high, with resulting popular mobilizations already preparing to defend Lugo.

-An ongoing strike among the bauxite sector in Guyana is getting ugly, as the workers' union has alleged instances of racial discrimination against the workers on the part of the company involved.

-While Chilean copper miners resolved their strike last week, smelters continued their strike, but are now apparently close to signing a deal as well. The smelters' strike and the miners' strike briefly drove the global price of copper up last week.

-Argentina is facing a potentially-major institutional crisis, as Cristina Kirchner has forcibly removed the president of Argentina's Central Bank from his position in order to open up reserves for the struggling Argentine economy and (perhaps) salvage some of her own political capital. That may seem innocuous, but Central Banks throughout Latin America tend to function independent of the executive branch, (theoretically) working for the long-term economic stability and growth of a country and not focusing on short-term political moves. If Kirchner is successful, it could be a troubling step towards Central Banks becoming part of political moves for politicians on both the left and right.

-It turns out, one of the Mexican broadcasters for the NFL is a horribly misogynistic pig.

-Finally, in an effort to boost coca-leaf production and spur the Bolivian economy, Evo Morales has an interesting solution. Meet Coca Colla.

Does the Baseball Hall of Fame Voting Need Reform?

I realize I'm about a year late in getting to one of Erik's resolutions for this blog, but I'd like to go ahead and add a little more on the Hall of Fame. There has been some controversy over the decisions of the BBWAA to elect Andre Dawson alone, let Bert Blyleven and Robbie Alomar fall short, not elect Tim Raines, etc., controversy and outrage in which I myself have participated. While I think this year was particularly silly, I don't think it's so much a year-to-year basis, and rather, a broader institutional problem: the voters of the baseball Hall of Fame simply misunderstand their role, overestimate their importance, or just aren't that familiar with what constitutes "greatness."

A perfect example of these traits is Howard Bryant, an ESPN writer who's just begun his voting in the Hall of Fame process. ESPN published a dual-article series of pros and cons of reforming the voting system between Rob Neyer and Howard Bryant. Neyer briefly explains why there should and will be reform, though his arguments do occasionally have problems. Neyer feels there should be a "culling" of the herd, but believes that this will inevitably lead to lowering the quality of the inductees. Admittedly, that is possible, but A) isn't there debate already that there are some in the Hall who are undeserving (including some who feel Dawson shouldn't be in)?; and B) but given how culling the field of people who don't actually pay attention to baseball hasn't been tried, there's no way to say the quality of inductees will decline with certainty. It's just one of those things you won't know until it happens. Beyond that, though, I agree with Neyer for the most part, and think his observation that the ballots that see Clemens and Bonds on them will lead to some real hand-wringing on the part of the writers and are a potential flashpoint for reform.

Howard Bryant's article is far more interesting, detailed, and ultimately flawed. Bryant stakes out the non-reform angle. His overall argument is, obviously, that there doesn't need to be any reform to the system; it works fine, and this year wasn't an abberation. However, his logic supporting his arguments falls woefully short in a number of regards.

Bryant first suggests that the most recent outrage is a bunch of hullabaloo about nothing, and that bloggers and fans need to calm down. However, he himself doesn't seem to understand the complaints us "non-writers" have. He belittles both technology (via blogging) and statistical analysis as it now exists, declaring that both have "hijacked" the process. The speciousness of this argument should be clear. I'm not sure how bloggers have hijacked the process, since we don't get to vote. And as for the statistics, Bryant strangely points to things like OPS+ to argue that baseball has gotten too burdened with numbers. This is just patently silly; fans and baseball wonks alike are constantly working to find better ways to quantify just what a player adds to a team in numerous facets; OPS+ is just one of these numbers, and I think you can strongly argue that OPS+ does tell us much more about a player's overall worth across the Majors than RBIs, home runs, or runs. That's not to say the latter are useless (and I don't know any serious baseball fan who thinks the older stats are useless); it's simply to suggest we can gain an even better understanding of how well players play, and new metrics are a great way to do that. Bryant may not like it, but those stats exist and are used, not just by wonks, but by GMs and coaches. If writers like Bryant want to refuse to use the statistical analysis available, it's their problem, not the stats'.

Bryant also tries to defend voters' particular choices this year. In the case of Edgar Martinez, he brushes off Martinez's stats glibly, declaring that "Yes, Edgar Martinez joins Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Stan Musial as the only players to have a .300 batting average, 500 doubles and a .400 on-base percentage, but would anyone in his or her right mind actually choose to start a team with Martinez over any of those players?" What? What does that have to do with anything? The Hall of Fame Ballot isn't about picking the greatest player ever at each position if you were fielding a dream team; under that logic, there would only be 10 (11 if you allowed for a relief pitcher; 12 if you allowed for the DH) that would be in the Hall. Worse, this kind of "reasoning" not only does nothing to strengthen Bryant's argument; it actually reifies the worst perception of the Hall, i.e., that old-timey guys are always better than more recent players. This just reinforces a foolish and worse-than-useless "golden-age" type nostalgia that ignores facts like whites-only leagues probably mattered more than they want to acknowledge.

Likewise, saying, "well, they didn't elect anybody between 1942 and 1947, either!" is also painfully specious: A) there was a war going on for much of that time, and baseball fell to the wayside, and B) what kind of argument is "we voted just like they did 62-67 years ago!" Again, this does nothing to actually explain why reform isn't necessary; nor does Bryant's comment that DiMaggio didn't get in on the first ballot provide any useful argument. Anybody with half a brain and an understanding of baseball would know that Joe DiMaggio was a first-ballot hall of famer if there ever was one; suggesting that the screwups of previous generations of journalists makes the screwups of this generation of journalists isn't exactly the kind of convincing argument you want to make to support your case. Indeed, these arguments, like Bryant's "argument" about Martinez, don't do anything to explain why there doesn't need to be reform to the system. The game has changed, and the analysis has changed; yet Bryant feels the writers' duties themselves don't need to change. The BBWAA should stay just the way it's always been, right or wrong, and really, what kind of institution of any sort want to be just like it was 60 year ago? Even the Catholic Church has overseen reforms at a faster pace than the BBWAA.

Bryant's article is actually quite useful in one very important way: it shows just how unseriously many of these journalists take the voting, and how undeserving they are. Bryant is certainly not alone, and his article, while naive, just reflects and reifies the stodgy attitudes of many voters. I don't think anybody would suggest that being a voter makes you all-powerful, all-wise, or a sacred keeper of anything; yet that is exactly how some act, and in doing so, changes in the game and the greatness of some players is unecessarily, foolishly, and even arrogantly overlooked. Ultimately, Bryant ends up demonstrating exactly why reform in the voting process needs to happen. Too bad that wasn't his intention.

...UPDATE: In the thread to Bryant's article, commenter raynor54 points out something else problematic with one of Bryant's arguments:

What a surprise: yet another sportswriter did not do his research on the Hall of Fame before writing an article about it.

Why wasn't Cy Young elected on the first ballot? Because the ballot that passed on him was the first ballot in Hall of Fame history, and the voters had 60+ years of baseball history from which to select candidates. Imagine trying to pick the best players since World War II; there's no question a few all-timers would get squeezed just because of the sheer volume of them.

And the reason that no players were elected from 1942-47 (aside from WWII bringing a lot of things to a screeching halt) is because the Hall of Fame worked under different rules back then. Not only were there a lot of players to choose from, but there was also no waiting period for voting on retired players - heck, active players were allowed to receive votes. DiMaggio wasn't elected on the first try because he received his first HOF vote in 1945 - a full 6 years before he retired. Also, while he wasn't elected on the first ballot after retirement, he did make it in 1955 - 4 years after he retired, instead of the normal 5-year wait that was put in place in 1954.

It's worth noting that a guy who didn't do his basic research for his article and either A) knows very little about baseball and/or B) is a terrible researcher, is also a proud voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame. If that's not dysfunctional, I don't know what is.

Harry Reid: Totally In Touch with America....in the 1960s

That Harry Reid is fairly out-of-touch with modern politics and the needs of the country and his party has been evident for awhile. Still, suggesting during the 2008 campaign that Obama had "no Negro dialect, unless he wanted to have one" really shows an offensive anachronism that makes his other outdated understandings of politics and culture seem harmless. Nothing will come of this, but it does serve as yet another example of why the Democrats need a newer, more in-touch leader at their helm to accomplish the things the party and its voters are by-and-large demanding.

Facial Hair of the Weekend

Emiliano Zapata (1879-1919). Although Zapata was from a moderately well-off family (in comparison to the peasantry) in the state of Morelos, he was still outraged by the gross inequalities between the landholding class and the landless peasantry, which constituted an overwhelming majority of the population in southern Mexico. Even before the Mexican Revolution, Zapata had begun fighting for greater rights and access to land for the peasantry. When the Revolution broke out in 1910, Zapata quickly became the leader of the Liberation Army of the South. When it became clear that Francisco Madero would not (or could not) effect the kinds of changes Zapata sought, Zapata soured on his leadership. Still, by 1914, Zapata was allied with Venustiano Carranza's Constitutional forces (including Pancho Villa), which were trying to overthrow Victoriano Huerta. By the end of 1914, Zapata's skills as a general were respected, but he was continuously dissatisfied with the slow level of reforms, and continued to take over cities and villages in the South, in an effort to strip elites of some of their power. When Carranza's government told Zapata to stand down, his response was effectively that if armed struggle wasn't going to bring reform, then certainly pacified, unarmed struggle would achieve nothing. Zapata's forces continued to cause trouble for Carranza in southern Mexico, but as Zapata was concerned with land reform in the south, his movement didn't ever really become a national one. In 1919, Zapata was ambushed and assassinated, dying a hero to many in the South, and although his message hasn't always persisted, his image as a hero of the people has continued to the present day in Mexico and beyond, most notably in the Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional (EZLN) in Chiapas and surrounding areas.

RIP - Art Clokey

Art Clokey, better known as the creator of Gumby, has died. Though I was in no way of the original generation that grew up with Gumby, by some strange twist of fate (and lazy programming), I was able to watch many of the original Gumby shorts as a kid (prior to the 1988 revival, which I also watched). I have always marveled at the technique of claymation, and loved the results (even going so far as to adore this video game in the early-90s), and Gumby was my "gateway" to the joys of claymation.

Reports on Police Violence and Prison Conditions in Brazil

In yet even more cheerful news from Brazil, Human Rights Watch once again put Brazil on its list for police violence.

According to NGO Human Rights Watch, an alarming number of police killings have gone unpunished in Brazil. Police officers from the states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have killed more than 11,000 people since 2003.

Most of these killings are claimed to have been “resistance” killings — those that occur when police officers return fire in self-defense. Police officials say these killings are in resistance to gangs linked to drug trafficking.

However, Human Rights Watch says otherwise. The group led a two-year investigation, called Lethal Force, that focused on 51 such killings and found evidence that police officers often took steps to cover up the true nature of the deaths.

This should come as no surprise to people familiar with Brazil or regular readers here. The solution, according to HRW, is to appoint independent investigators and prosecutors to focus on the extrajudicial killings. That would be nice, and there have been some forays into prosecutorial action and even some newer tactics within police forces, but with the broader lack of concern about the fate of the poor in Brazil and the deep-seated impunity most police have enjoyed, nothing short of a massive and complete overhaul of the police system, structure, and workforce forced upon Rio from the federal government will accomplish an eradication of this, and that simply isn't happening for obvious logistical reasons.

Nor is that the only problem facing Brazil, in terms of policing and human rights. A British journalist had the chance to see some of the prison conditions in Brazil, and he learned firsthand that they were nothing short of appalling. In addition to the horrible crowding and understaffing, there are broader fundamental problems:

Many of the people being held have only been charged with extremely minor offences – such as shoplifting – but administrative inefficiencies in the conduct of trials means that it is not uncommon for them to spend longer on remand than their final sentence. Many should not even be there at all. The Brazilian judiciary have recently reopened the files in a number of states and found that around 20% of the people currently in prison should be released and a further 30% moved to lower security.

Locking up petty thieves with hardened killers also provides the gangs with a steady stream of new recruits. Their leaders are responsible for the day to day administration of many prisons, controlling the distribution of food, medicine, and hygiene kits and enforcing whatever internal discipline exists. Two and half years ago the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), São Paulo's most powerful crime gang, launched a series of co-ordinated attacks against police officers and prison staff in a protest over prison conditions, which resulted in around 450 killings. The PCC was initially formed by a group of prisoners to "avenge the death of 111 prisoners" who were killed during the suppression of a prison protest in 1992.

As Foley points out, this also needs major reforming, which is easy to say and hard to do. I think prison reform in Brazil has a better chance to be accomplished fairly quickly in comparison to police reform. Either way, though, in spite of Brazil's recent growth, expansion, and success in the international arena, it is still very difficult to be either poor or a criminal in Brazil, and there is little hope that the basic structural situation facing those groups is going to improve anytime soon.

Happy Birthday Elvis!

He would have been 75 today.

Around Latin America

-The Honduran Supreme Court has appointed a judge to investigate a prosecutor's filed case against the military for its role in forcing Manuel Zelaya from the country on June 28. No warrants can be issued until the judge rules on the filing. That may sound nice, but given that this is the same Supreme Court that upheld the illegal removal of Zelaya, I don't think much will come from this. Still, if something is to happen, it has to start somewhere.

-Additionally, the Micheletti regime is apparently broke: "The Finance Minister for the de facto government, Gabriela Nuñez announced today that she does not currently have access to sufficient funds to pay government employees for January. It all boils down to cash flow. She said she has access to about 400 million lempiras, and needs a total of about 1,500 million lempiras. In addition, she noted that the government has run up large debts with suppliers, including 450 million lempiras for medical supplies, and a further 700 million lempiras owed to road construction and paving contractors." I don't know to what extent international reaction to the coup and reduction of financial support has played a role in this, but I suspect it must be at least somewhat significant, and nothing less than what the Micheletti has brought upon itself.

-Is Peru's economic star rising in Latin America? A road between Peru and Brazil and a growth in GDP of 9.8% last year indicate Peru may be in for a brighter future.

-Not as bright for Peru's future: illegal gold mining in Peru's Amazonian basin is causing long-term environmental damage : "it takes about five grams of mercury to extract a gram of gold. That mercury is usually tossed overboard, poisoning one of the world’s most biodiverse rain forests. And Borian’s form of mining is among the most benign. Illegal cartels with heavy equipment clear-cut and mine huge areas of virgin forest, alarming environmental activists."

-In response to Mexico City legalizing abortion, surrounding states are making it increasingly difficult to obtain an abortion in the rest of the country:

In response to a Mexican Supreme Court ruling in August 2008 upholding a Mexico City law permitting abortion during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, 17 of 32 Mexican states have approved amendments to their constitutions declaring that life begins at conception and granting legal rights to fetuses, the Chicago Tribune reports. Veracruz, which in November 2009 became the most recent state to enact an antiabortion-rights amendment, has called on the federal government to consider adding a similar amendment to the national constitution.

It's hard to be surprised by this. Anti-choice sentiment stemming from conservative social values and Catholicism made any kind of response in Mexico likely. Still, this particular response from other state governments, and the pressure for a national law banning abortion, is very unfortunate. While each state can do what it wants (in the same way the D.F. can and did), it would be very bad of there were a national law enacted in Mexico.

-According to Venezuela's state-run National Electric Corporation, the country could be facing a major power outage nationwide in the next 3-4 months if water levels in the reservoirs continue to drop. Weather is funny, so there's no way of predicting accurately what will happen in that time period; still, power loss for an entire country would be tough to deal with politically, socially, or economically.

-While the recent massive rainfall in Brazil has led to the deaths of dozens, it may have the opposite effect in terms of agricultural production, as "Brazil’s coffee crop may beat the 48.48 million bag record this year, the country’s crop supply agency said in a report which also raised forecasts for the newly-begun soybean harvest."

-Finally, Lula is expected to decide soon which company he will contract for the a $4.4 billion U.S. dollar fighter jet order. In addition to Boeing (a U.S. company), France's Dassault and Sweden's Saab are in consideration. If Boeing is selected, it would create thousands of jobs for the struggling U.S. economy, a fact that didn't deter Republican Senator George LeMieux from doing all he could to damage U.S.-Brazil relations prior to the approval last week of Thomas Shannon as ambassador to Brazil.

Time to Grant Jay Mariotti a Wish!

Jay Mariotti, who in the best of circumstances is an insufferable, self-righteous attention-whore, once again flaunts his despicable qualities:

I didn't vote for anybody in the baseball hall of fame this year. Ya know why? To me...the first ballot is sacred. I think Roberto Alomar is an eventual Hall of Famer, not the first time. Edgar Martinez, designated hitter, eventually, but not the first time. Same goes for maybe Fred McGriff. As far as Blyleven and Dawson...if they haven't gotten in for years and years I cannot vote them in now. Ripken, Rickey Henderson and Gwynn. They are true first ballot Hall of Famers, but I didn't vote for anybody, throw me out of the Baseball Writers. I don't care.

It shouldn't have to be said, but to just touch upon the problems here - yes, some people (for example) are first-ballot hall of famers. To suggest Roberto Alomar wasn't, when he was one greatest second basemen ever, stretches the bonds of credibility. But to vote for nobody? "Absurdly indefensible" and "painfully stupid" don't even begin to describe it. This is arrogant, self-important preening from an incredibly little man. James Bailey perhaps put it best:

If Mariotti doesn’t want to vote, take the privilege away from him. He’s doing nothing but lowering the percentages of the players up for election, making it tougher for them to reach the required 75 percent. Who appointed this arbitrary, unprincipled king of principles gatekeeper? And does he imagine if we were voting for writers that he would even make the ballot?

We all know this is just a publicity stunt. Mariotti is nothing if not a spotlight hound. He’s not the only writer to take a “principled” stand with a blank ballot over the years, and he’s not the only one who ought to have their voting rights re-examined. But he’s certainly the most annoying.

I couldn't possibly agree more. And maybe, if they strip him of his vote, it will get the attention of some of the other members of the idiot squad in the BBWAA.

Little-Known Aspects of Latin America: Uruguay Forces the Scuttling of a Nazi Ship

Many amateur historians can (annoyingly) rattle off the names of naval battles from World War II, both from the Pacific and the Atlantic. Yet one country is often overlooked in these lists: Uruguay, which indirectly oversaw the sinking of a German battleship.

Early in the war, the German navy had been conducting commercial raids on ships up and down the Atlantic. In September 1939, shortly after the war officially broke out, the German battleship Graf Spee had successfully sunk several merchant boats without loss of life. Still, dissatisfied with the doings of the Graf Spee, the British Navy dispatched several ships to track and stop the Graf Spee. In one of the first naval battles of the War, the German ship engaged battle near the River Plate with British ships, including the HMS Exeter, which was damaged enough to be retired from service. Although the German commander had caused more damage, he was outnumbered, and steered the Graf Spee up the River Plate, hoping to dock in neutral Uruguay's capital, Montevideo. However, Uruguay, following international treaties, said the ship could only remain in Montevideo's bay for 72 hours, and, unable to gain safe harbor in a neutral country, the captain scuttled the ship in Montevideo's bay, where it remains to this day. Thus ended the Battle of the River Plate, one of the first naval battles of World War II, and one in which Uruguay, in its own way, played a decisive role.

While the battle is not a major milestone in the British or German narratives of World War II, it is important enough to Uruguay that, in early December of last year, the government issued a stamp commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Battle, acknowledging that stamps may be a fading part of culture, but the battle remains relevant as a point of pride and identity to Uruguay to this date.

The Brazilian Military's Opposition to a Truth Commission

A couple of months ago, I commented on Brazil finally launching a truth commission into the use of torture (thousands of victims) and disappearances (several hundred) during its twenty-one year military dictatorship. A couple of weeks ago, Lula sent a bill to Congress creating the "committee". I don't have much to add in terms of my own opinions expressed in the link above.

However, an interesting little knot has emerged in the process, as certain sectors of the military have already come out against the establishment such a committee, and the heads of the army, navy, and air force all tendered their resignations to Lula, who refused them. Still, he promised to "review" the bill again. This is, suffice to say, a step backwards, even if the bill proceeds. Scholars have done a good job of showing how, through much of the 1990s, military leaders were able to exert undue influence on presidents Collor, Itamar Franco, and Cardoso from behind the scenes, with the specter of possible military intervention always hovering over the leaders. While I haven't seen similar studies on Lula's administration, it's clear that much of the military's influence has remained in spite of Brazil re-writing its constitution in 1988 in an attempt to remove the military's constitution of 1967. If Lula buckles into this pressure, then there has been little change in this arena, and the military can still influence politicians in ways that should have disappeared with the dictatorship itself.

Beyond the obvious self-serving efforts of the military leaders on this (who I imagine may very well have entered the military and even began working their way up the chain of command during the dictatorship), there are a lot of reasons why their complaints that it will "tarnish" the military's reputation are bunk. Firstly, the fact that torture and disappearances happened is not only well-know, but very detailed and chronicled in the Nunca Mais project, an abbreviated version of which was published shortly after the end of the dictatorship, and is incredibly easy to find in Brazil (I actually have a copy sitting on my desk here next to me. The names of individual torturers are even pretty well-known, and the fact that such a commission may reveal more names doesn't tarnish the military's reputation; after all, we know what it did already. It simply tarnishes some of the individual torturers who may still be alive, and I'm sorry, but I just find little reason to sympathize with torturers. Additionally, this is as much about giving closure to the families of the hundreds of disappeared in Brazil. Their rights have been repeatedly violated over the years as this has remained unstudied and hidden away; it's time that the families, rather than the murderers, get some special treatment.

As the UPI article that Lillie links to points out, Lula may lose more face if he backtracks on the bill (which is now public) than the military would if he sticks with it. But this is about more than political face-saving. It's about justice and truth for thousands of Brazilians, and it's 25 years overdue.

More Thoughts on This Year's Baseball Hall of Fame Ballots

-First, I would reiterate that Dawson absolutely should be in. As Rob Neyer reminds us, though, he shouldn't be the only Expo, nor perhaps even the first (though Dawson's window was smaller). There are a lot of indefensible denials on the part of the BBWAA (that only got more indefensible this year - more on that in a second), but not having Raines in the Hall is stupid. One of the greatest hitters, runners, and producers in his era, and that's what the Hall should be to me - the best of your period. And Raines was unquestionably one of the best of his era.

-Secondly, yes, Blyleven and Alomar seem locks next year. As the BBWAA site itself put it, "For the first time in BBWAA balloting, two candidates failed to gain election by fewer than 10 votes," with Blyleven falling five short and Alomar eight shy. The case for Blyleven was made years ago, and while he will almost certainly get in next year, that doesn't make the ongoing ignorance or stubbornness of some minority of the BBWAA less frustrating. And Alomar was, simply put, one of the three greatest all-around second-basemen - offense, defense, he just had it all. The fact that he didn't get in on the first try says nothing about him, and plenty about the ignorance, blindness, and unnecessarily codger-y attitudes among many of the participants of the BBWAA.

-Just in the last few days (in no small part thanks to our always-good commenters), I've also really been persuaded as to why Dale Murphy should be in. I never really thought he didn't belong; he just never really entered the equation (and I admit that I was a kid for much of his most productive period, and I didn't really pay as much attention to the NL. Only Greg Maddux in the early 90s would really get me looking in the direction of the non-DH half of baseball). That said, it's just not going to happen barring some miraculous shift on the part of the BBWAA; in his 11th year on the ballot, he still only has 11.7% of the voters behind him. He absolutely belongs in there, but it will probably be up to the Veterans' Committee, and even they don't always make sound decisions.

-I'd harp more on Edgar Martinez's low showing, but I don't need to get my blood pressure up or go into too much detail (since I'm sure I'll have years to re-argue this case). I've said most of what I feel now more coolly and clearly elsewhere. For now, I'll simply leave it at the fact that, while I understand the "he never fielded" argument, I just don't think it holds. He was one of the best hitters of his era of players at any position, and that alone should be worth getting in. And for those who still insist that, by not fielding, he wasn't a full baseball player, Jayson Stark does a great job disarming the importance and validity of that argument, as well as other myths that will work against Martinez's favor.

-I'm still not sold on Jack Morris or, to a lesser extent, Alan Trammell. Yes, Morris had what was probably the first performance that I knew, even as a kid, was really really special. Jayson Stark made a compelling opening argument for Morris, but it's not enough, to me. I know these things are always intangible, but to me, Morris unquestionably belongs in the "Hall of Really Good." But he just doesn't strike me as one of the best of his era. As for Trammell, I'm surprised how few defenses on him I've really seen from some of the better baseball writers (which I suppose may indicate just how they're voting on him). A career OPS+ of 110 does seem mighty good, and looking just at his numbers, Trammell seems like a legitimate case, but I'd really like to see some wonk-ish breakdowns that make strong arguments as to why he does or does not belong in, and those have been few and far between.

-I always enjoy seeing the names who will never be on the list again because they didn't get the minimum 5% of the votes, so for those of you who had high hopes for Andres Galarraga, Robin Ventura, Ellis Burks, Eric Karros, Kevin Appier, Pat Hentgen, David Segui, Mike Jackson, Ray Lankford, Shane Reynolds, or Todd Zeile, I'm sorry - save the craziest veterans committee selections ever, your guys are toast.

-To sum up, it's pretty clear that Blyleven and Alomar will be getting in next year, and that will be good then. The DH argument was almost certainly a strike against Edgar, but 22% is a respectable start, I suppose. It would be nice to see both McGwire and Murphy get in (perhaps together), one in recognition of his skills during the steroids era, and the other in recognition of how good he was in the pre-steroids era, but McGwire's going to continue to wait, and it's looking increasingly likely that Murphy will only get in if the Veterans Committee puts him in someday. No matter who seems a lock in, and who seems locked out, the fact that guys like Raines, Blyleven, Alomar, Martinez, Murphy, McGwire, and perhaps even McGriff have to wait another year, while Andre Dawson goes in all on his lonesome, is pretty ridiculous. Regular commenter Aaron put it best: "if there's a group of people who understand the thing they're supposed to do professionally less well than the BBWAA understands evaluating baseball players, I don't want to know about them."

Around Latin America

-A public prosecutor in Honduras has filed charges against the Honduran military for illegally removing Manuel Zelaya from Honduras forcibly when it overthrew him on June 28. The file charges the military with "abuse of authority." Meanwhile, Roberto Micheletti announced that he would not resign before the inauguration, staying on until January 27, but neither will he be attending the inauguration, which will certainly make the ceremony even more interesting.

-Argentine President Cristina Kirchner issued a decree this week that will open Argentina's military archives, declassifying thousands of documents from the period of Argentina's military dictatorship/"Dirty War" between 1976 and 1983. Upon issuing the decree, Kirchner declared, "The classified information and/or documentation which was not made public was not designed to protect the legitimate interests of a democratic State, but, on the contrary, served as a means of hiding the illegal actions of a de facto government." Now, if only Brazil could follow suit and open its military archives...

-A couple of cases and events in Brazil have stirred some concerns over freedom of the press in Brazil. The Supreme Court upheld a court ruling from July that barred one of Brazil's major newspapers, O Estado de Sao Paulo, from using legally-obtained information regarding a corruption investigation into former president and current president of the Senate Jose Sarney. That ruling alone would have set some media outlets and critics of the government on edge, but has in no way been aided by statements Lula made at the opening of the National Conference on Communications in Brazil, where he criticized Brazilian media, which he claimed "commits 'excesses', publishes 'lies', fabricates news and gets involved in campaigns that disseminate 'slander and abuse.'" While he's often right, particularly when one looks at O Globo or some of the more salacious and ridiculous daily newspapers that adorn kiosks throughout the country, he also insisted that he has "a sacred commitment to freedom of the press." While Lula's contempt for the media is well-known (and understandable), there's no reason to believe he's launching an attack on free speech; even if he were interested in doing so, why he would begin with just 10 months left in an 8-year presidency stretches logic and credibility. Still, these two events back-to-back have many of his most vocal critics speaking out, and has left even some traditionally-responsible news sources on edge.

-Suriname's first president, Johan Ferrier, has died at 99. Ferrier played an important role in Suriname gaining its independence from the Netherlands in 1975, and was rewarded with the presidency. While his arrival to office seemed like a major accomplishment, his departure was much darker; Ferrier resigned and relocated his family to the Netherlands as a military dictatorship established itself.

-Hopes for finding survivors in mudslides in Rio de Janeiro state are fading fast, in the wake of torrential rainfalls that hit the state and city over the New Year's holiday. At least 75 are reported to have died already, but that number could go up as the count and search continue. Meanwhile, the mudslides have prompted calls for shutting down Brazil's nuclear power plant. The plant is located near Angra dos Reis, where many of the mudslides have occurred.

-Finally, in the mildly salacious department: four Mexican priests have been defrocked for violating their vows of celibacy. The Church's position on celibacy is pretty hard to defend, but I guess if you're going to lose your job for something, that's a pretty good cause for job dismissal.

Salazar Resigning?

Ken Salazar resigning from the Secretary of the Interior to run for governor of Colorado would be ideal. Not only would Salazar give the Democrats a good chance to hold the seat, but he was one of Obama's poorest cabinet choices, being significantly less progressive than other suggested choices.

If Salazar resigns, Arizona congressman Raul Grijalva should be the new choice at Interior. A Latino and great on environmental issues.

Shorter New Mexican Politicians: "We Need to Reduce Our Population through Violent Means"

This is obviously a terrible idea:

A bill that would allow concealed handguns in some restaurants that serve beer and wine has been pre-filed for the 2010 legislative session, which begins later this month. The bill, sponsored by state Sen. George Munoz, D-Gallup, would allow concealed handguns in “a restaurant licensed to sell only beer and wine that derives no less than 60 percent of its annual gross receipts from the sale of food for consumption on the premises.”

I just don't understand the purpose of this type of proposal. Why on earth would anybody need a concealed weapon in a beer/wine bar or restaurants (since 60% of the income apparently must come from food)? I don't buy the whole "self-defense" bit. You know what's good self defense? Not having to worry about some drunk shooting you unexpectedly. I suppose my favorite haunts are probably off limits on this, as they also serve hard liquor. Still, this just screams "stupid idea" all over, and the fact that a similar bill has already passed New Mexico's house just leaves me more depressed. Maybe I'll go have a drink...

Prop 8, Film at 11... or, at least, on-line (woot!) ?

It was just announced that there is a strong possibility that the court battle over California's Prop 8 will be broadcast on a delay on YouTube. This is being reviewed by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. The broadcast is opposed by the Pro-Prop 8 people (you know, the bad guys). I love the reasoning, too. Prop 8 attorney is quoted as below in an article by Variety reporter Tim Johnson last week:

In a letter sent to Walker on Monday, their attorney, Charles Cooper, referred to the aftermath of the 2008 election, a time marked by protest rallies, marches and, in some cases, boycotts of those who contributed to the Yes on 8 campaign, including one website that identified donors and their addresses with a Google map overlay.

Indeed, some potential witnesses have indicated that they will not be willing to testify at all if the trial is broadcast or webcast beyond the courthouse," Cooper wrote. He also cited a history of the court prohibiting cameras from trial proceedings.

Good God! We could have a bunch of people non-violently exercising their freedoms of speech, assembly, and press? Witnesses not testifying? Look, if you are going to be a self-righteous asshat and use your vote, money, and time to meddle in other peoples' lives, at least have the stones to own up to it. Cowardice is the province of those on the wrong side of history.

Cooper does have a better argument, based on precedent. Federal appeals hearings are not broadcast, with the exception of opening arguments. This is, well, at best kind of dumb, and at worst, undemocratic. Trials are part of the public record, and barring some kind of national security issue or other extenuating circumstance, the citizens ought to be able to access that public record. In the past, this meant transcripts, but in the 21st century media environment, the standard ought to be actual audio and video record-- when we have the means to provide a much better quality record, we deserve to get it. To take a page from the Teabaggers-- who is paying the bill for this trial, anyway?

The judge in the case is soliciting public comment; since it is a federal case, those of you outside of California should comment as well. California's Courage Campaign has launched an on-line petition, which can be accessed here.

I am a little torn on this court case, however. I'd rather just wait a few years until the demographics shift, then we can overturn Prop 8 via California's idiotic public democracy experiment. Winning this battle by court decision just adds more fuel to the other side's fire, and would likely spike donations for anti-marriage equality forces in other states. To have the voters come back and reject discriminatory legislation and atone for the lunacy of Prop 8 would be a nice, swift kick in the teeth to hatemongers everywhere. Of course, I am torn because this would be a clear case of justice delayed, which is not fair to my LGBT compatriots in my state. That this is the situation we are in is ludicrous.

(After a lengthy hiatus, I am refreshed and back to the AD community. I look forward to being part of the interesting conversations here again).

The Consequences of Not Organizing?

So recently I wrote about my annoyance with progressive reactions to the teabaggers.

Well, today at GRITtv we went one step further than the tea party protests and looked at the rise of white nationalist movements with journalist/filmmaker Rick Rowley, who just made a film connecting the dots between the teabaggers, the anti-immigrant groups, and the hard-core white supremacist/neo-nazi groups. We also had Chip Berlet of Political Research Associates, who spends entirely too much of his time researching frightening right-wing groups, on to discuss--and we spoke to a member of the Council of Conservative Citizens from Rowley's film, who says he joined it because of the economy.

I was prepared to be properly freaked out by the rise of neo-Nazi groups. Hell, I'm Jewish, lefty, and while I might be annoyed with some of Obama's moves thus far, I certainly don't want to see him assassinated.

Well, I'm still disturbed by the hatred, but the most salient points made in the panel by far were that these people are angry because they have nothing--or they're losing what little they do have. When I'm watching a film about white nationalists and they're saying some of the same things I say about Wall Street and the economy...

So, as a friend and I were just saying, what do we do now? I'm in NYC, in the heart of liberal multiculturalism, as it were. However, the show I work for is broadcast on satellite and is watched all over rural America. That helps some, I suppose, but we need more.

The good old "50 State Strategy" worked for an exceedingly well-funded campaign, but in the downtime, we need to not forget about organizing and we need to spend less time sneering at people and more time figuring out how to get them to stop blaming people of color, immigrants, women, lesbian and gay people for their troubles and look at the real causes.

(In case you think I'm being entirely too optimistic, I'll fall back on my second Saul Williams reference in a week: Some of these people are never going to change. Your old racist uncle isn't going to get any better--he's just going to die. But that's not most people.)

At Least There's a Montreal Expo...

Andre Dawson is the sole inductee for 2010. An excellent (and way-overdue) choice, but Bert Blyleven is once again unfairly denied. Also, Robbie Alomar should have been an obvioius first-balloter. And as I've said elsewhere, Edgar Martinez should be in, too - the DH is a real position, and Martinez was the best ever. Voters need to get over it. A thrilling day for Dawson, but he should have company.

I'll have more later.

Around Latin America

-Copper miners in Chile went on strike earlier this week at the second-biggest copper-complex in the world, demanding better pay. Chile's copper miners have historically been one of the stronger labor forces in the world due to the importance of their work in terms of Chile's GNP (indeed, some have argued that Chile's copper miners are their own style of "privilged" union in comparison to other unions in Chile because of the importance of their work), and this strike was no exception, as copper prices immediately rising globally. Yesterday, Codelco, the mining company, offered a new compensation package for the workers, and they accepted it and ended the strike.

-In Paraguay, allegations of a planned military coup against Fernando Lugo continue to surface, in spite of (or perhaps because of) Lugo's efforts to clean out the military leadership when he took office.

-Prosecutions against military officers who participated in the military dictatorship of 1976-1983 in Argentina continue, as 15 men are now being tried before a tribunal. Another officer, known as the "Angel of Death," is also facing prison for his role in torture and "disappearances," including the murder of two French nuns, during the "Dirty War." And a judge who was involved with torture sessions was just sentenced to prison for 21 years for "misconduct," including a hit-and-run involving a swimmer and the judge's motorboat.

-Clashes erupted in Suriname between locals and Brazilian gold miners after a local was stabbed by a Brazilian. At least 25 were injured, while the Brazilian alleged to have committed the stabbing is in police custody. The case issues both the diaspora of (usually poor) Brazilians from the north seeking wealth in neighboring countries, and the tensions that can and do arise from this dispersion.

-The Brazilian government is finally trying to legally establish who owns what lands in the Amazonian basin. The decision arises out of the ongoing violence against poor landowners and landless individuals, who are often in conflict with major landowners and who are often murdered by the wealthy and their underlings, murders that function in a similar manner as in the murder of Dorothy Strang). Environmentalists hope the new efforts will also provide a state presence in the region and reduce deforestation. I don't have much hope about the environmental effects of this new policy, but certainly, a stronger state presence is needed in the region, and if the policy reduces the number of murders over land claims in the North, then that alone will be a noteworthy accomplishment.

-A new map has mapped the Guarani territory in the tri-border area between Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. In addition to defining the exact geographic region the Guarani claim as their homeland, the map also reveals the sources of threat to Guarani land and culture, including expanding soy farming, dams, and deforestation.

-In spite of the ever-classy efforts of Republican Senators Jim DeMint and George LeMieux to block (with damaging economic consequences) Barack Obama's nominee for U.S. ambassador to Brazil, the U.S. Senate finally was able to approve both Thomas Shannon as ambassador to Brazil and David Nelson as ambassador to Uruguay. It's really inexcusable that it has taken this long to get an ambassador to one of the largest countries politically, economically, and geographically, but the stupidity of Republican tantrum-throwing in the name of "opposition" knows no bounds.

Dodd Too?

Chris Dodd also retiring?

What the hell is going on here? Are all Democrats who could possibly lose retiring?

Favela Tours, U.S. Edition

Renee has an interesting post on gang tours in Los Angeles. Apparently, the L.A. gangs themselves are playing a major role in organizing these tours. Which is bizarre. From the perspective of people living in those neighborhoods, you do what you have to do to make money. But the people who sign up for these tours are really reprehensible. Like the Rio favela tours, this is totally disgusting and probably populated in part by Europeans hoping to score drugs.

Dorgan

Well, Byron Dorgan retiring really sucks.

I've thought for awhile that the narrative of the Democrats getting creamed in 2010 might not be true. But it may become a self-fulfilling prophecy as key Democrats in tough states begin to retire in droves, much like Republicans did in 2006.

Dorgan was pretty good considering he's from North Dakota.

Damn.

Puke 'N Rally

This was Trend's idea for a band name if he ever was in a band.

Sadly for him, the other day I saw a poster for a show in Portland with a band of this name. I guess all the good band names truly are taken.

Farewell, Old Friend; Hello, First-Ballot Hall-of-Famer

Randy Johnson is retiring. It's not hard to understand why. Still, along with Maddux, Johnson was my favorite pitcher in the game, and it will be weird this spring to not see him on the mound with somebody, and he's probably the last 300-game winner we'll see for an awfully long time (if we ever see one again). A sad day for baseball and baseball fans, but Johnson should feel nothing but pride and satisfaction.

How to Fix the Declining Competitive Balance in Baseball

No, I don't have an answer for it, and neither does Paul (from the excellent Indians/Baseball blog The Diatribe), but he does have some excellent ideas in a very long post that's worth every second it takes to read it. He first breaks down how payroll has changed over the last 17 years in baseball, and what is the cause of that change (hint: generally speaking, big-market teams spend more because, well, they have a bigger market of income). He then compares MLB to the other two major sports and they're structure of development:

In the NFL, teams are rewarded for intelligent drafting and development and have the tools in place to keep their home-grown players to allow continuity to reveal the wisdom of their best-laid plans. If a team succeeds, it is because the Front Office made prudent decisions and because the players performed at a level that resulted in consistent winning. On the flip side, if a team fails year in and year out, it is largely because of shortcomings within their organization and not reliant on factors outside of football decisions.

In the NBA, the system is also in place to reward wisdom in player acquisition and development and the procedures are in place to foster that continuity that puts the onus of winning on the Front Office, the coaching staff, and the players as the league makes it easier for teams to retain their stars. The NBA features winning teams that build through smart drafting and player development (witness what the Hawks and Trail Blazers are currently doing) and watches teams intent on finding a way to “beat the system” by buying players on the open market (see Knicks, New York) flounder in the mess that they’ve created, unable to simply buy their way out of the mud. [...] Compared to the system in place in MLB, how alien is that concept?

This is a really good point, and Paul's not an idiot who thinks that player freedom must go away. Rather, the luxury tax as it works now simply doesn't work; there's no dis-incentive for the rich teams to still outbuy everybody else in free agency, and no incentive for owners like the late Carl Pohlad or Robert Nutting in Pittsburgh. One of Paul's more interesting proposals:

A possible solution could go something like this – once a player hits Free Agency, allow said player to go out on the open market to see what deals exist for him out there. When the bidding has concluded and an offer sheet is signed by the player and his agent, his current team has 10 days to match the offer, much like Restricted Free Agency in the NBA. Now here’s where that pool of money created by the “Competitive Balanced Payroll Tax” come in – the player’s current team can decide to match the offer sheet while only footing the bill for half of the contract with the other half of the money coming from the pool of money created by the Competitive Tax Pool [original bold] that [Red Sox owner] John Henry argues for. To put that in tangible terms, if the Brewers wanted to match the Yankees’ 7-year, $161M contract offer from the Yankees last off-season, they would be responsible for $80.5M of the deal with the other $80.5M coming from the Tax Pool.

Thus, the large market teams can still bid for the services of the players they desire and, if their offers are matched, they have effectively ensured that the money that they pay into the “Competitive Balanced Payroll Tax” is going strictly for MLB players (not for other small market “expenses”) and the smaller market teams don’t have to assume as much risk in signing their own players to their contracts to keep them. The large market teams may not like the idea of bidding against their own money or subsidizing the contracts of players not playing for them, but their concerns about throwing money into other owners’ pockets would be allayed and they would be left to strive for the same excellence in player development that every other team would be chasing.

If teams don’t elect to utilize this Tax Pool to keep their own players, the onus is strictly on them for either not developing players internally compelling enough that they want to keep them or they are exposed for being more concerned with the bottom line than they are the product on the field. If a team develops players prudently, the machinations would be in place to keep those players as long as they wish to, with the players being compensated dollars equivalent to “what the market will bear”.

This seems like a really good idea. As Paul points out, it isn't meant to have every team finish 81-81; it's meant to give smaller-market teams a broader window to have their players develop and make a championship run. For example (and I use the following example not out of partisanship or complaining, but familiarity): such a system may have allowed Cleveland to keep either Sabathia and/or Lee and/or Martinez beyond 2009, so that all the players had more time to gel. As it was, with Sabathia, Cleveland basically had a two-year window where he and all the other players had to gel; when that fell apart in 2008, Cleveland's entire window for a championship run had opened and closed in just 2 years, and they had to completely dismantle the team in hopes that the next batch of young guys all develop at exactly the same time (2011-2013) if they're going to make another run. Meanwhile, the Yankees or Mets can currently continue to out-bid everybody else (and many times themselves) when their drafts don't work out or their players don't develop the way they planned (though that doesn't mean the Mets are always making good choices in those bids). Under the new system that Paul proposes, players can still leave for NYC or Boston or Chicago, but the smaller market teams that choose to spend their money have a shot, too; the players aren't losing any money in terms of possible contracts; and teams that choose to not spend will earn the record their ownership deserves.

It seems like an amazingly good idea, which is why I'm sure MLB will never adopt it during Selig's ever-shortening tenure, and maybe not under the next commissioner. And maybe this isn't the solution for the long-term; something better may come along. Still, as Paul points out, MLB can point to incredible income growth over the last 17 years, but to say that that proves the system is working could really hurt MLB down the road, as two of three sports in America remain competitive while baseball continues its decline in popularity, in no small part because one of the most appealing components of sports, the underdog, just doesn't stand as much of a chance.

Grayson Strikes Again

I know that some people around here don't like Alan Grayson, but I think he's funny and a breath of fresh air from the usual Democratic politician afraid of attacking Republicans. Today, he asks this question about Dick Cheney's forthcoming book:

"I'm wondering, though, who's doing the introduction to his book? Is it Mephistopheles? I don't know -- maybe it's Satan."

Ha! That's great stuff! Really, how can you get after Grayson for asking that question.

Chavez-Thompson for Lieutenant Governor!

I am thrilled to see Linda Chavez-Thompson, former VP of the AFL-CIO, file for the Democratic nomination for Texas' Lieutenant Governor.

Chavez-Thompson is a true progressive and a pioneer within the union movement. There's no question where she stands on issues for working people. I always thought John Sweeney and Richard Trumka marginalized her a bit during those years, but her commitment to progressive politics cannot be questioned. I actually met her once in those years, when I had inside information on how to get past security at then Republican Rep. Heather Wilson's office, which I used to spring her into the building. She was appreciative.

Can she win the general election? I think she'd have a good as shot as any Democrat. A lot will depend on mobilizing the Latino population, ever-growing in Texas. While Texas is a weak union state, the AFL-CIO infrastructure should make this a priority. I feel Chavez-Thompson should have a reasonable chance of taking the office.

Ian Snell

The definition of the quality of analysis advanced statistics and critical thinking can provide. This post explains why Ian Snell quickly became so bad. Let's just hope someone with the Mariners is reading this and reprogramming Snell to throw inside. 20 years ago, the "analysis" would have had something to do with him being too small and just having a high ERA.

The Economic Crisis Hits Home

One might think the collapse of the academic job market is the most profound way the economic collapses has affected me. But no. Eric describes:

Over Thanksgiving, while visiting family out of town, I went looking for Angostura bitters. There were none at the local liquor store, so I settled for Peychaud’s, thinking nothing of it. Then, over Christmas, I went looking for Angostura bitters here. There were none in the shop, and upon inquiring I was informed that there are none to be found anywhere locally, because none had been manufactured for months. It seems the financial crisis took down the company behind the little bottles.

The proudly Trinidadian firm was supposed to have been rescued in October, and supplies were supposed to hit the Northeast back in the fall. But there are still none hereabouts and as of even date they are reportedly out in the UK.

Even if the works are up and running, it will take a while for bitters to return to shelves everywhere: “You can’t just turn on and off supply of bitters. It’s not like producing bottled water – it’s a very delicate, intricate process.”

What!?!?!?!?!?

As he titles his post, "Coolidge Would Have Sent in the Marines." Damn right he would have. And rightfully so. How long is a good American going to have to live with second-rate bitters?

And we know that we'd have full British support for a bitters-related military action.

The Problem of the Honduran Inauguration, and the Stupidity of Claims of Zelaya's "Radicalism"

I'm a little late in getting to this, but RAJ pointed out the lack of a good solution for the impending inauguration of Porfirio Lobo in Honduras at the end of the month. Lobo is saying he should be inaugurated by the head of the legislature, which has happened regularly - so regularly, in fact, that in 2006, we got this now-amazing photograph of Roberto Micheletti giving the presidential sash to....Manuel Zelaya. And while Lobo's solution may seem like a decent idea at first, as RAJ points out, "Lobo still has this difficulty to solve: while he can duck being given the regalia of power by Micheletti, he still has to be deemed to be receiving power from the previous president," who is, of course, Micheletti. It's going to be interesting to see how the inauguration plays out, both in Honduras, and in the world more generally.

And finally, if the photo above isn't amusing enough, RAJ also found this nugget that effectively obliterates any notion that Zelaya was some crazy leftist opposed to the United States (as if this photo wasn't evidence enough that Zelaya was not some Chavez pawn):

PS: The little trip down memory lane to find a photo of the investiture of President Zelaya in 2006 also produced this interesting tidbit:

Thousands of Hondurans filled the National Stadium in Tegucigalpa, with a capacity of some 40,000 persons, to witness the passage of command from the exiting government official, Ricardo Maduro, of the National Party, to Manuel Zelaya, of the Liberal Party, both conservatives.

Pretty fascinating stuff, and makes claims by the likes of DeMint and his ilk even more ridiculous.

Social Mobility in Brazil Gradually Improving

A new study out of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas is reporting that, since 2003, "more than 20 million of 198 million people in Brazil have risen above poverty, and 32 million have entered the middle class." Brazil's growth hasn't stopped there, either, as foreign investment in Brazil in 2008 was at $45 billion, triple what it was in 1998, and Brazil's economy is bigger than Russia's or India's.

Brazil's growth, especially in terms of the economy, hasn't been a big secret over the last five years or so, and anybody doubting the strength of that growth became very quiet as Brazil was one of the fastest countries to emerge from recession brought on by the global financial collapse of 2008 (exiting its recession just one quarter after entering it).

Oftentimes, when one sees economic growth, it doesn't necessarily have much to do with the leadership of the country at that moment. However, as I've pointed out before, Lula certainly has every right to take much of the credit for this (though he doesn't). His willingness to expand his trading partners beyond the U.S. and Europe has helped Brazil diversify its importation and exportation and strengthened the value of the Brazilian Real in the international market, which, as I pointed out, has helped the consuming power of the working classes, and this expanding access to consumption has in turn only further strengthened Brazil's economy. Additionally, programs like offering federally-funded "internships" that help college graduates to get established in the job market has also been another direct program of Lula's that has aided the workforce and students finishing school (a number that, while still relatively small compared to the U.S., is constantly growing in Brazil).

And these reports of growth, especially in terms of the social mobility of those 20 million exiting poverty, is much better news than the report from last June, which focused only on middle class growth and which, as Randy and I both pointed out, said nothing about the very real problems facing Brazil's poor. Certainly, this latest report still does nothing to address the poverty that many face, nor the police violence (and impunity) waged against the urban poor, nor the broader social and racial prejudices against Brazil's poor. Still, the fact that 20 million have exited poverty is just another testament to the success of government programs like Bolsa Familia and Fome Zero, and Lula's institution of these programs (in the face of strong conservative opposition) has been nothing short of vital in helping this broader social turnaround.

Alberto Fujimori's Sentence Upheld

This is great news:

Peru's Supreme Court has upheld a 25-year jail sentence imposed on former President Alberto Fujimori.

The term was handed down last April for ordering the security forces to carry out killings and kidnappings. [...]

It was the first time a democratically elected Latin American leader was found guilty of human rights abuses in his own country.

There was some real concern that Fujimori's conviction wouldn't withstand the appeals process. It appears those concerns have not materialized, though, and he will spend the rest of his life in jail for overseeing a government that killed innocent civilians in the name of "national security." And the fact that he's the first democratically elected leader to be convicted for human rights violations in Latin America will hopefully deter other democratically elected leaders from supporting acts similar to Fujimori's, in the present and the future.

Rose Bowl Open Thread

All times Pacific

Final Thoughts--EL--As I said below, if Pryor can pass well, it opens everything up for Ohio St. And he played a phenomenal game. His coming out party. I'm sure both Ohio St. and Oregon will be in the top 5 to start next season. Still can't believe Oregon attempted a 45 yard FG on 4th and 1--one of only 2 terrible calls Chip Kelly made all year.

5:20--LS--Sad as it may be for me, Pryor has played a phenomenal game, as has all of Ohio State. Congratulations, while I weep.

5:10--EL--I love Chip Kelly, but that was the exact wrong time to be conservative. 4th & 1 with your accurate but limited range kicker forced to try from 45? Terrible call.

5:08--LS--Good play, but seriously, those kickoff return reverses are dangerous plays.

5:05--LS--No doubt, that was brilliant football played by Ohio State. Go Ducks, they have plenty of time.

5:04--EL--Give Ohio St. all the credit--that was a world class drive against an Oregon defense that is playing very well.

4:55--LS--The offense sure is sputtering; this is considerably scarier than it should be.

4:33--LS--See Erik's pregame Note 4, below.

4:30--LS--Wow! James is such a brilliant runner, so much tougher than he looks.

4:27--EL--Next to "bend but don't break" in the dictionary is a picture of the Oregon defense.

4:26--LS--Pryor's starting to stare down Sanzenbacher. That's a good sign for the Duck defense.

4:21--LS--Lookin' sharp in those berets, OSU band

4:16--EL--What a love about that drive is not the awesome 4th down conversion (OK, I do), but bringing in Blount on the 1 and then faking it to him. Great play call. Give Ohio St. credit though--they are making Oregon work very hard to get their running yards. Give Oregon credit for being willing to shove it down their throats.

4:15--LS--The lead...finally.... A really nice drive, overall, and Erik's note on halftime adjustments is exactly right.

Halftime Update--EL--Not a huge deal with that last FG, but it hurts a little. Oregon was driving, tipped pass and pick. Down 16-10. Oregon has done an excellent job all year making halftime adjustments and dominating the 3rd quarter. They will need to do so again, particularly on offense. A bit concerned that Pryor is passing so well, though Oregon has gotten excellent pressure on him. I still feel very good about this game--Oregon gets the ball in the second half and I expect a good 2nd half from them.

3:47--LS--Some hot marimba work in this halftime show!

3:45--LS--Tough half. OSU is playing really strong, though that final Pryor pass was definitely grounding. Second half is Oregon's though, no doubt about it.

3:25--LS--Lucky to be 13-10, but that should have been a pick. A minute is enough for a TD. No fumble; no way.

3:10--EL--10-10. It doesn't take long for the Ducks to come back. Huge 4th & 9 conversion. Awesome pounding TD run for LaGarette Blount. Glad to see him have the shot to do it. Boom!

3:00--LS--Those are the exact kind of contain defenses we need to see. Make Pryor work for it.

2:49--Lyrad Simool--A good goal line stop, though, and now we're in the red zone...hook 'em Ducks!

2:46--Ohio St. offensive game plan also going very well. As I said earlier, if Pryor passes effectively, Oregon will have trouble stopping them. Indeed, that has been the case through one quarter. I kind of feel lucky to only be down 10-0.

2:40--Ohio St. clearly doing a great job. Again, it's very early and Oregon can score quickly, but the Ohio St. defensive game plan is working quite well. The Oregon offensive line is young and Ohio St. might be able to overwhelm them. If that's the case, things will be very difficult for Oregon.

This is the open thread for the Oregon-Ohio St. Rose Bowl. Perhaps Trend and/or Lyrad would like to join in. For casual readers, I am an Oregon alum and Trend is an Ohio St. partisan. Meaning that it's Civil War here!

A few notes to begin:

1. It's interesting--the nation believes in Oregon but Ohio St. fans are completely dismissive of the Ducks. The latter is interesting because Ohio St. can never win a big game and because it's reflective of their belief in football played as if it was 1954. That the country believes in Oregon I also find a bit strange because they are not the traditional power that the Buckeyes are.

2. The key of the game is the Oregon offense versus the Ohio St. defense. Neither team has faced an opponent like this. Ohio St. fans call Oregon's offense a gimmick. That's a perjorative, but whatever, we win with it. It's also in many ways a very traditional offense that just looks funny. Can Ohio St. maintain the discipline against the zone read for the entire game? No one else has except Boise St., which is a lifetime ago. On the other hand, Ohio St. does have a great defense, though against the "offenses" of the Big 10, I'm not sure what that means.

3. I think equally important is the play of Terrelle Pryor. That's the biggest wildcard. If Pryor can throw decently, it makes things much tougher for Oregon. Ohio St. fans have slammed on Oregon's defense by saying the Ducks give up a lot of yards, but that's the equivalent of relying on batting average to say who is the best hitter in baseball. Oregon gives up a lot of yards because the offense scores in 4 plays half the time. The defense is on the field the entire game. So we need a different set of statistics to judge Oregon. Oregon's defense is entirely decent and carried the team early on.

4. The other wild card are Oregon turnovers. Sometimes Masoli gets a little careless. Fumbles could be huge. But if Oregon falls behind 10-0 or something like that, the game is far from over. Oregon can score very quickly. Of course, falling behind to Ohio St. is not like falling behind to Arizona or Oregon St., but this team has come back before and I feel Ohio St. needs a 3 TD lead to feel comfortable.

5. Final score--Oregon 30, Ohio St. 24

Updates to continue throughout the game.