Sunday, November 09, 2008

From Colony to Superpower, Part I

Over the next 20 Sundays, Robert Farley and I will be reviewing George C. Herring's new overview of the history of U.S. foreign relations, From Colony to Superpower. Published by Oxford University Press, this tome surpasses the 1000 page mark including end matter, and provides and excellent opportunity to think about American foreign policy, past and present. This is particularly true given the recent centrality of foreign policy to our lives, especially the Bush failures and the Obama victory.

Each week we will discuss one chapter. I am certainly not anticipating this as a review per se. The book is thorough and quiet excellent. Far more interesting to readers will be our thoughts about America's relationship with the world. So the book review aspect of this is really a jumping off point for this kind of debate.

Therefore, you should discuss these issues in comments.

I have a wide definition of foreign relations. Looking at the interactions between governments is vital. But a full view of interactions between peoples and nations casts a much wider net, examining the relations between states and non-state actors in other nations, consumption and globalization (the latter term I also define broadly), the role of environmental change, how transnational advocacy networks in the first world affect the third world, etc., etc. My comments throughout this series will try to push some of these ideas.

This week, we are going over the introduction and Chapter 1, which covers the period between 1776 and 1788.

What is clear to me from the introduction of Herring's book is that the Bush years are already influencing how we think about the past. Not surprising I suppose, but telling because Herring is a senior scholar who has been in the field for decades. For example, Herring takes the idea of the United States fulfilling a special destiny to task, writing that "this sense of a special destiny has at times also spawned arrogance." Herring centers race in his narrative, saying that racism reinforced Americans' "sense of cultural superiority." Our sense of cultural superiority and arrogance certainly came to life in the Bush administration, particularly in the run up to and beginning of the Iraq war. And arrogant racial superiority served us about as well as it has in the past, i.e., very poorly.

Herring also explores the American idea of the city upon the hill and its providential mission to do good in the world, however we define it at the time. From missionaries and capitalists to Wilson and W, Herring promises to explore and critique this tendency which has had a mixed legacy at best for the world. Related to this mythology is American unilateralism, which Herring seems to have mixed view of. He certainly is critical. of the idea in the 20th and 21st centuries, a stand that I assume is an implicit criticism of the Bush administration. I'll be curious to explore these points later in the book.

He also takes the idea of American isolationism to task, calling it "a myth...used to safeguard the nation's self-image of its innocence." I can't agree more. Americans have been engaged with the world since before they were a nation. Our so-called isolationism was usually a self-serving attempt to subvert world trading systems to the advantage of the U.S. Herring states "few nations have had as much experience at war as the United States," a point all the more true when we consider the Indian wars of the late 18th and 19th centuries as part of our history of foreign relations.

Finally, Herring says that the U.S. has been incredibly successful in their foreign policy but that this success and the superpower status of the nation after World War II created more limits of the nation, something that the population with its belief in American power, had trouble dealing with. I think this is certainly true, given the domestic reaction to both Korea and Vietnam, as well as the ability of figures such as Fidel Castro, Osama Bin Laden, Hugo Chavez, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to defy the U.S. in recent decades.

Onto the meat of the book.

The first chapter covers the American Revolution. Reading it reinforced my belief that the Revolution was incredibly stupid. That the United States survived the Revolution took a tremendous amount of luck combined with the diplomacy of Benjamin Franklin in France and the leadership skills of George Washington in the field. The British should have crushed us. The U.S. was completely unprepared for self-government. The nation had no unity and upon independence the states immediately fought amongst themselves over control of western lands. The Army could barely feed its troops. The Articles of Confederation were worthless. The U.S. could not pay off the many loans it needed to survive. Like future generations of Americans, the revolutionaries thought of themselves as the greatest people on earth. While this provided self-confidence to a young nation, it also blinded leaders to the realities of the world and led them to overestimate their ability to shape their own destiny.

I have argued before that perhaps the American Revolution was not the best thing for the nation. Essentially, this comes down to the idea that a defeat in 1776 would have led this part of the world to become a Canada-like place over time. Core to this argument are two points. First, that American nationalism and exceptionalism have been a negative force in the world. Second, slavery would have been abolished earlier and without significant violence. The first argument I will touch upon again and again during this series. The second I will deal with now. The British abolished slavery in their empire in 1838 without violence. This despite the fact that they had many territories where slavery was far more entrenched than it ever was in the United States. The advantage of slavery in what became the U.S. South for the economic system of 19th century Britain would not have been great enough to delay abolition significantly. They needed cotton for their mills, like they needed other products from their colonies. But the British understood that chattel slavery was not necessary for this aim.

Nevertheless, the United States did survive and eventually prosper. Why? One thing the revolutionary generation did remarkably well was exploiting the insecurities of major European powers before 1789. They took advantage not only of the French desire to get back at England for the Seven Years' War but also of Britain's fears of what American-French alliance might mean. Thus the U.S. got French arms but bailed on the French before the Spanish could get Gibraltar back, something the revolutionaries didn't care about.

But of course the years after 1783 were exceedingly brutal in the new United States. Kicked out of the British mercantile system they thought oppressed them, Americans were shocked to find that they couldn't trade with all the European powers equally. The British surely weren't going to give them any advantages and the Spanish closed Havana and New Orleans to American ships. Even the French were relatively indifferent to American trade. To his credit, Thomas Jefferson worked very hard to open up France, even trying to convince American farmers to grow products the French wanted. But he ultimately failed. A significant economic collapse ensued.

By 1787, the new nation was falling apart, both domestically and in foreign affairs. American credit with vital foreign traders was in shambles. The British remained on American soil in the Great Lakes region. No one respected this little piss ant republic in the Americas. Combined with domestic problems such as Shays' Rebellion, it was clear to many leaders that the nation needed a new form of government. The Constitution was obviously a massive success and saved the nation from destruction during the French Revolution, which we will discuss next week.

One thing I do like about the book thus far is that Herring pays a reasonable amount of attention to Native American issues. The American Revolution was the worst thing that ever happened to the Indians. As Richard White shows in his book, The Middle Ground; Indians, Empires, and Republics in the Great Lakes Region, 1650-1815, Indians were able to operate on a fairly equal basis with both the French and English during the first half of the 18th century. This wasn't through any benign policy from the Europeans. Rather, neither the French nor the English was strong enough to force the other out and thus the Indians had leverage between them. Ultimately though, the Indians knew that they were better off with the French because that power was less interested in colonization. They rightly feared the American colonists and mostly fought with the French during the Seven Years War.

Of course, after the war's conclusion in 1763, the British were in terrible financial straits and needed to cut costs. The Indians feared the loss of the French would mean rapid English invasion of their land. The colonists certainly had this in mind. But the British, wanting to avoid expensive Indian wars, implemented the Proclamation of 1763, essentially banning settlement beyond the crest of the Appalachian Mountains. This infuriated colonists and played an important role in fomenting opposition to Parliament. While it's wrong to overstate the importance of the Proclamation in the revolutionary ferment, a further exploration of colonists' views toward Native Americans would be nice.

It is also important to note that Native Americans were actors who exercised plenty of agency over their own foreign affairs. They rightly understood the evolving situation they faced and acted accordingly. They felt betrayed by the British after the end of the Revolutionary War and certainly did not accept American sovereignty over their lands in the West. Throughout their history, they did their best to shape their lives in the face of overwhelming American population and military power.

The one major criticism I have so far is the lack of any substantial discussion of the slave trade. The slave trade was one of America's first entries into foreign relations. Slavery was introduced to the colonies in 1619 and the southern states demanded the slave trade exist until 1808 before they would sign on to the Constitution. Herring mentions this last part. Again though, to me this book ideally should be a history of American foreign relations, as opposed to just policy. Americans had a lot of interactions with people from around the world before 1776 and this changed little in the intervening 12 years. Although the United States played a very small role in the overall slave trade, millions of slaves still ended up on our shores. The slave trade of course changed Africa rapidly. Again, this was hardly the central focus of U.S. interactions with the world during these years, but it does deserve a mention. I hope there is more on these issues in the next chapter.

Petition against Larry Summers

Pass it on. (via bastard.logic via shakesville)

Say NO to Larry Summers as Treasury Secretary.

This was my note:

I, along with thousands of American women, worked tirelessly to elect Senator Obama. I campaigned against the possible first woman president because I did not want a return to Clinton-era policies that contributed to our current economic crisis.

To appoint Larry Summers to the treasury would be a slap in my face and a slap in the face of all the women who campaigned for Senator Obama. Not only a return to Clinton-era economic policy, but a man who thinks that women are inherently less gifted than men.

There's got to be somebody better.

Oh my god...Change.

Via hilzoy at Obsidian Wings:


"Transition advisers to President-elect Barack Obama have compiled a list of about 200 Bush administration actions and executive orders that could be swiftly undone to reverse White House policies on climate change, stem cell research, reproductive rights and other issues, according to congressional Democrats, campaign aides and experts working with the transition team." (from WashPost)

The specific changes said to be under consideration include lifting limits on embryonic stem cell research, lifting the ban on international family planning groups counseling women on abortion, "the Bush administration's decision last December to deny California the authority to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from automobiles", and "declaring that carbon dioxide emissions are endangering human welfare, following an EPA task force recommendation last December that Bush and his aides shunned in order to protect the utility and auto industries."

These are wonderful changes. After the last eight years, the very idea that they might occur not as the result of a long drawn-out battle, but just like that, is amazing.

Just yesterday I read this post at Hoyden About Town about the One Thing that Obama should do right away. Yep, the Global Gag Rule. And to think that they're already preparing to do that.

I don't think it's a small thing to say that every bit of time I spent volunteering on this campaign will be worth it for just that one thing. Throwing in more?

This cartoon may just be right:



(cross-posted)

Friday, November 07, 2008

Just How Important Is Obama's Victory in African-American History?

Watching Inside City Hall on NY1 tonight, I was struck by one (African-American) commentator's comments. He declared that Obama's victory is the most important thing to happen in African-American history since 1865 and the end of the Civil War/abolition.

Really?

Obama's victory is more important than Brown v. Board? More important than the Civil Rights Act? More important than Birmingham, or Selma, or (in the negative column) Plessy v. Ferguson?

I'm not saying this just to be contrarian - maybe the commentator was right. And in no way am I trying to diminish even one iota the importance of Obama's election. But is it really more important than anything since the end of the Civil War?

Bag Tax

Kudos to New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg for proposing a 6 cent tax on each plastic bag used when shopping. Plastic bags are one of those totally worthless conveniences that have real negative damage on the environment and are easily replaced.

But as this Times article suggests, Bloomberg is wrong to assume that the bag tax will create the $16 million a year in revenue for the city he hopes for. People will quickly switch to cloth bags that they own and bring with them. This has happened in European nations with bag taxes such as Ireland.

This is the core of the problem with sin taxes. They work OK for generating revenue when the product in question is actually addictive, like cigarettes. But with easily replaced consumer items like plastic bags, most people will make a quick change. This is what we should want to happen but when such plans are sold to the politicians and the public as revenue generators, the actual reason for their existence are obscured and the cities no doubt will be disappointed.

Reason #546 I Hate the University of Texas Football Program


It is no secret that I really hate Texas football. Few people outside of Lubbock were happier than me last Saturday. Here is yet another reason I hate UT football.

Apparently, Longhorn center Buck Burnette (who along with Colt McCoy have the most "Texas-y" names ever) was kicked off the team for a very offensive comment posted on his Facebook page. The Yahoo! Sports article linked above doesn't contain the comment, but this site has the alleged "Status Update" scrawl:

"all the hunters gather up, we have a #$%&er in the whitehouse"


Talk about putting the 'offensive' in the 'offensive line'. Texas football has, of late, had a lot of problems with arrests; this just adds to the tarnish on the program. But here's what really pisses me off: take a look at the Daily Texan, the student newspaper on campus. No mention of what he said or even why Burnette was removed from the team. In fact, the paper only says "The reason for Burnette's dismissal was not given by the team".

Here's Burnette's apology:

Clearly I have made a mistake and apologized for it and will pay for it. I received it as a text message from an acquaintance and immaturely put it up on facebook in the light of the election. Im not racist and apologize for offending you. I grew up on a ranch in a small town where that was a real thing and I need to grow up. I sincerely am sorry for being ignorant in thinking that it would be ok to write that publicly and apologize to you in particular. I have to be more mature than to put the reputation of my team at stake and to spread that kind of hate which I dont even believe in. Once again, I sincerely apologize.

First of all, did he text message this apology to someone? Proofreading apparently isn't taught at UT. Second, does anyone buy it? I grew up in a small town too (population 400), Buck, where lots of people are very racist (which is what I think he means by "it" [racism] being "a real thing"). That is not an excuse and I'm tired of people playing the "small town" card.

I must, however, give props to Mack Brown for doing the right thing in kicking him off the team. As a degree-holding alumnus of the University of Texas at Austin, I would be exceedingly, righteously pissed if this guy had been just slapped on the wrist.

Some people are already flapping their jaws about how he was a victim of liberal academia, etc.; I'd just like to remind everyone that he plays football. This is a privilege, not a right (even in Texas). The University has every right to ensure that the (sadly) most visible part of the institution is representing said institution well. This is not an academic or free speech case-- this is the University sending a strong message that participants in extracurricular (read: nonessential, optional, enhancement, tangential to the educational process) activities are bound to reflect the core institutional values-- diversity, inclusion, and civility being three important ones. Don't like President-Elect Obama? Fine-- post a Facebook blurb about how you fear socialism or you are crying to see Sarah Palin leave the national stage. But dropping the N-word and rather explicitly threatening race-based violence? No University should tolerate that out of their optional programs.

Rip Van Loomis


Hello. My name is Rip Van Loomis. I just awoke from a 20 year sleep. How can you trust this? Look at my giant beard that clearly shows I have not shaved in 2 decades.

I'm looking around at this new society. And I'm finding one thing quite striking.

Did we just elect a black guy president?

Did I wake up in bizarro America?

To be serious, I simply can't get over the fact that the United States has elected an African-American president. This is the most shocking event of my life. Much more so than 9/11. I was sure that the only way we would ever elect a minority or a woman as president was if it was a Republican. To have elected a left of center Democrat with a weird Muslim-sounding name is unbelievable. Really really amazing.

I am wondering if one of the unintended consequences of this election is that it is going to be harder rather than easier to discuss race in this country. Now my students can easily buy into ideas that race doesn't matter, that anyone can pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and that there is no such thing as institutionalized racism. That Obama played down race and because enough Americans now think that having a black leader is an OK thing, this will lend credence to these myths and make teaching these issues all the more challenging.

Well, I am sure getting sleepy. When I wake up in another 20 years, I am expecting an openly gay president. Which I actually think is not all that unlikely by 2028.

Historical Image of the Day


Agnes Mary Clerke. Irish immigrant, astronomer, pioneering woman scientist of the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Thursday, November 06, 2008

A more interesting map of the 2008 Presidential Results

 Here is a rescaled map of the U.S. based on population proportions. You can find more maps that better represent the results here, as well as an explanation on how this was made.

NFL @ Week 9: AFC

After election night and election hangover day, I nearly forgot that there’s a football game on tonight. It must have been a big week when I almost forget about the Broncos on national television (albeit NFL Network). The only downside is I have to consider the possibility of losing to the Browns; those are truly dark thoughts.

AFC EAST:
At this point, the Bills look worse than they did last year. With a three way tie for the lead with the Patriots and the Jets, they’re going to devour each other to allow the Dolphins to win the division…Wildcat style. They aren’t that talented a team, but they sure beat the Broncos and they sure are fun to watch. They’re far more interesting than the crap-fests in New York and New England.

AFC NORTH:
Even though the Steelers look as inconsistent as ever, they laid a beating on the Redskins by the rejuvenated arm of Byron Leftwich. I spent a lot of time making fun of him while he stunk up Jacksonville, but he looked very strong. The Cowboys could easily have signed him but, with the stellar play of their QBs lately, I’m sure they have no regrets. Joe Flacco is looking good, but I want to see more Troy Smith passes to Flacco. Reasonably, that should be the other way around, but it seems like all kinds of teams have college fever. Losing to the Browns would be devastating. Brady Quinn sucks but, if there’s any team he can have his little debutante ball against, it’s Denver.

AFC SOUTH:
It’s good to see the Titans winning with good ol’ fashioned 1930s style football. As Erik well knows, I appreciate this sort of play but I must suggest to Jeff Fisher more fullback runs. LenDale White and Chris Johnson get plenty of touches; give Ahmard Hall some attention. Last week’s Colts vs. Patriots matchup may have been the worst preseason matchmaking in history. Sure, I would have thought it a good matchup too, but two old, crappy teams are the last thing I want to see.

AFC WEST:
The Broncos still sit in first place, no matter how badly they’re playing. Even if they lose tonight, they’ll still be in sole possession of the lead…at least until Sunday. With all the injuries--placing two starting tailbacks on IR and losing your defensive captain does not make it look good—it’s pretty hard to see how they’re going to win too many more this season. At least they have the Browns tonight. You know a cornerback is washed up when he is soundly beaten down the field by a really bad quarterback like KC’s Tyler Thigpen. Ronde Barber: you are washed up.

Games about on…gotta go. GO BRONCOS!!

Just for Fun

Who says pundits are never held accountable?

And things like this always cheer me up a bit, not because the country is in such bad condition, but because the man with 74 days left before retirement is convinced that history will redeem him. And I certainly don't buy into the notion of "bad luck" that some raise in the article. Luck does not determine deregulation policies that allow banks to wield their purchases and spending in such a way as to put the entire economy at risk; luck has nothing to do with how a government deals with disasters like Katrina; and luck has nothing to do with taking an attack on your country and using it to increase the authority of the executive in ways that often violate the constitution. Hopes for history's redemption is all Bush has to lean on at this point, but part of me hopes he lives to be 250 years old to see that, no, George, history will never redeem you.

Change.gov

Apparently, the transition team already has a website.

I find this immeasurably cool for some reason. Open government? Holy shit! I know it's just a website, but imagine if they actually maintain a presidential blog? Yes, I know it's run by staffers, but they'd be staffers who do report to the Prez. (Yeah, I can call him that, I volunteered in enough states, damnit).

Direct communication to the people? Um, yes please. I know that I'm in journalism and I'm supposed to whine about the media's necessary role, but the media was never meant to participate in the political process to the extent that it does. It's meant to keep an eye on government, to ferret out wrongdoing and keep 'em honest, not to regurgitate press releases. So if the government has a way to send out its own press releases without needing the media, they can..gasp...do their jobs?

(This is the part where I put out the obligatory plea to fund public broadcasting, kthx?)

Also, you can go in and hit the Contact form, or tell your campaign story, or whatever. I did both. Used the Contact form to beg 'em to please not pick a Treasury Secretary who has a record of causing controversy on women's issues, and also one who was there for a while already and failed to see our current problems coming.

On that note, I think Rahm Emanuel should be the only representative of the Clinton administration. Hey, change, remember?

That said, I am positively drooling over the suggestions of Janet Napolitano, Bill Richardson, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (who did great work with Greg Palast on the vote theft issue), John Kerry, and Caroline Kennedy.

This is too much fun.

McCain at Defense?

Let me throw a terrible idea out here.

And yes, it is a terrible idea.

But let's at least explore it.

What if Obama offered John McCain Secretary of Defense?

Don't yell at me yet.

Could it be a win/win situation?

If he takes it, which I don't think he would it would open a Senate seat that Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano would fill. It would put us one seat closer to the filibuster proof supermajority. It would make Obama look great because he would be "reaching across the aisle" and other such things that pundits like so much. The Republicans would be even more dispirited, seeing their candidate agree to work for the enemy. Plus, you could isolate him in that position much like Colin Powell was in the Bush Administration in 2004.

If he doesn't take it, then it is McCain and the Republicans who look bad for rejecting Obama's attempts at bipartisanship. But Obama still looks great. His numbers goes up and he starts his administration with even more support then he already has.

I know there are lots of reasons to reject this. I don't want any Republicans in the cabinet, and certainly not in a top position. But if there is a politically brilliant reason, I might reconsider my opposition. And maybe this scenario could play out.

OK, now you can yell at me about why this is so stupid.

Republican Candidate, 2012

It's worth looking ahead to who the Republican presidential candidate might be in 2012.

You might ask, "This is so far away. It's a pointless exercise."

If we were talking about the Democrats, you'd be right. Who could have projected the Obama, Clinton, or Dukakis nominations 4 years before they happened? A few were talking up Obama, but it seemed like 2012 at the earliest. Even John Kerry was far from a given.

On the other hand, when have the Republicans nominated someone outside of their inner circle of expected candidates? McCain, W, Dole, Bush Sr., Reagan, Ford, Nixon, etc. All very expected candidates. I don't quite know enough about the Goldwater candidacy to know whether that is the last time someone came out of nowhere. If not Goldwater, we are looking back to Willikie or Landon. And that's a long time ago.

So who then are the top 5 candidates for the Republican nomination:

5. Bobby Jindal. Oh pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease. The governor of Louisiana, Jindal is a real loon and is totally unelectable. Some Republicans think he's the answer to Obama. That's because he is not white. The similarities end there. This is a man who claimed to run exorcisms in college. Yes, he is the Exorcist. He is a real extremist. The fundies love him. I place him relatively low though because they love Palin more. If Palin really loses her credibility with the base, look for Jindal to rise to #2 on this list.

4. Jeb Bush. Don't count out Jeb. At this point, his name is his biggest negative. How that will play in 4 years remains to be seen. By all accounts, he's a lot smarter than W. He is also fluent in Spanish and has a Latina wife. This would likely bring his numbers up among Latinos, making him a much better candidate in the West than McCain. I'm sure there are those in the party apparatus who would like to see this. Still, the Bush name is a huge negative and although Americans have short memories, it's hard to see him overcoming this.

3. David Petraeus. I don't actually think this will happen, but Petraeus could potentially be the candidate to unite all wings of the party. I don't even know for sure that he is a Republican, though I can't imagine that he is not. Still, unless he really establishes himself as a social conservative, I don't think the evangelicals would go along at this point.

2. Sarah Palin. The base loves her. Bill Kristol, Rich Lowry, and the punditry are in love with her. She has great appeal to the redneck side of the Republican electorate. On the other hand, her political reputation is almost beyond repair with everyone who doesn't love her. And that's like 80% of the nation. If she is the nominee, I fully expect a spate of Republican fundraisers and power brokers to openly support Obama and the electoral map to look like 1964. This is what Rob predicts but I don't think she's likely to win the nomination.

1. Mitt Romney. Romney is going to be the nominee. He's going to have support of all the money. The only way he is not the nominee is a full revolt from the base. Either way, Romney is not a scary candidate because the base is going to be dejected with Mittens and scared of his Mormonism. He is also as exciting as paste. What we are going to see in the next 4 years is a Republican civil war between Romney and Palin. It's going to be fun to watch.

Historical Image of the Day


Barack Obama acceptance speech, Grant Park, Chicago, 2008

My favorite historical image ever.

Give to Jim Martin

To follow up on Sarah's post below, give money to Jim Martin! Do it right here!

Words cannot describe what a horrible person Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss is. If you remember back to 2002, Chambliss called then Senator Max Cleland a traitor and connected him to Al-Qaeda. Cleland lost 3 limbs in Vietnam. This worked in Georgia. Chambliss won in the most reprehensible campaign of the year.

At the end of this election, he was campaigning heavily in northern Georgia, talking about how "they" were voting this year. Gee, who did he mean by "they"? Chambliss is a racist and a scumbag.

I just gave Jim Martin $25. I challenge the rest of you to match me.

And when I say challenge, think about to the Jerry Lewis telethons when challenges happened all the time. Like Lewis, the French love me even though I am not funny.

In all seriousness, I think most of us can give at least a small amount to help out Jim Martin. There is still a chance that a Martin win in the December runoff could give us the filibuster proof majority.

Also, Sarah deserves credit for moving this blog in a more advocacy direction, which I think is a good thing.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Crichton

Michael Crichton dead.

What ignorant celebrity will climate change deniers dredge up now to voice their spurious claims before Congress?

Update 11/6--John Tierney, never missing an opportunity to promote teh stupid on science issues, devotes a column to Crichton's scientific "thought," especially his idea to eliminate the Environmental Protection Agency.

Georgia!

Ok, so Georgia went for McCain.

But here's the real kicker. Saxby Chambliss, best known as the complete scumbag who ran campaign videos comparing veteran Max Cleland, who left three limbs in Vietnam, with Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, did NOT get 50% of the vote to retain his Senate seat.

This means there's a runoff election.

Jim Martin is another Vietnam-veteran Democrat, and in a post-Obama world, we could snag another seat here. Chambliss, a Republican incumbent in a state that went for McCain, couldn't get a majority.

Help Martin out. Saxby Chambliss is one of the most odious bastards in the Senate.

Historical Image of the Day


Jesse Jackson speaking at the 1984 Democratic National Convention in San Francisco.

Although I have criticized Jackson at times, to me the most poignant moment of last night was seeing him crying after Obama's victory. Although I think he's an opportunist in many ways and has been resistant to a new generation of black leadership, Jackson was a pioneer and his 1984 campaign should be remembered as such.

Election Gossip

A few other people have linked to this, but check out this great insider info from the campaigns that Newsweek is publishing.

Among the highlights:

The debates unnerved both candidates. When he was preparing for them during the Democratic primaries, Obama was recorded saying, "I don't consider this to be a good format for me, which makes me more cautious. I often find myself trapped by the questions and thinking to myself, 'You know, this is a stupid question, but let me … answer it.' So when Brian Williams is asking me about what's a personal thing that you've done [that's green], and I say, you know, 'Well, I planted a bunch of trees.' And he says, 'I'm talking about personal.' What I'm thinking in my head is, 'Well, the truth is, Brian, we can't solve global warming because I f---ing changed light bulbs in my house. It's because of something collective'."

You do have to wonder how the candidates put up with this shit. And did Brian Williams actually think that was a good question? The punditocracy is not the best and the brightest, though they certainly think that about themselves.

McCain also was reluctant to use Obama's incendiary pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, as a campaign issue. The Republican had set firm boundaries: no Jeremiah Wright; no attacking Michelle Obama; no attacking Obama for not serving in the military. McCain balked at an ad using images of children that suggested that Obama might not protect them from terrorism. Schmidt vetoed ads suggesting that Obama was soft on crime (no Willie Hortons). And before word even got to McCain, Schmidt and Salter scuttled a "celebrity" ad of Obama dancing with talk-show host Ellen DeGeneres (the sight of a black man dancing with a lesbian was deemed too provocative).

I'm not buying into the rehabilitation of McCain's reputation that he and so many others are already engaging in. However, is their any doubt that Bush and Rove (or Lee Atwater for that matter) would have used this stuff all the way? Although I would not call McCain's campaign classy in any way, it could have been worse.

NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin's shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain's top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent "tens of thousands" more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as "Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast," and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.

McCain himself rarely spoke to Palin during the campaign, and aides kept him in the dark about the details of her spending on clothes because they were sure he would be offended. Palin asked to speak along with McCain at his Arizona concession speech Tuesday night, but campaign strategist Steve Schmidt vetoed the request.
This stuff is hilarious. Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus. Wow. There sure is a lot of hatred of Palin coming from the McCain team.

Newsweek is promising more of this kind of thing. It's quality insider gossip.

Proposition 8

So it really sucks that Proposition 8 passed in California, eliminating gay marriage.

A lot of people are really upset about this and rightfully so of course. Cara at Feministe expresses her anger and disgust as well as anyone on the matter.

While I am disgusted as well, I want to be positive. Think about how far the gay rights movement has come. 10 years ago the idea of gay marriage having any chance to exist at all was crazy. Even 4 years ago, when Massachusetts starting allowing it, it was seen as out of left field. 15 years ago when I was in college it was difficult to be gay, even in Eugene.

A lot has changed.

A lot of work needs to be done.

Josh Marshall suggests that Prop 8 passed because African-American voters who came out for Obama also voted yes. There's no question that there are huge problems with homophobia within the black community. I hope Obama makes this a priority. It's sad that what leads to a great historic victory can also lead to a devastating defeat that takes rights away.

And certainly people in states less liberal than California and Massachusetts are banning gay marriage.

But the times are changing. Huge progress has been made in 15 years. Young people, even many young evangelicals, support equal rights for the LGBT community. This is going to happen. It might take another 20 years, but damn it will happen and in our lifetimes too.

UPDATE: To add a little evidence to this argument, note that in 1993 44% of Americans thought gays should be able to serve openly in the military. A recent poll shows that number rising to 75%. This is real progress.

So I'm upset about this too (and it is one of the biggest bummers of the night) but history is on our side.

This also serves as another excuse to mention how much I hate ballot measures, which almost invariably appeal to the worst American tendencies.

Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States

I still can't say it without breaking down a bit.

Wrote this for Global Comment before bed last night:

Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

To type those words brings back the euphoria of the first few minutes after the words flashed on the blurry screen of the projector lugged in at the last minute to update all of us at the Northeast Philly headquarters on the results.

I have been awake for many, many hours.

I woke up at 4:30 AM to arrive at my staging location by 5:30.

Like millions of others across the country, I spent the whole day working. I watched the polls, knocked on doors, brought coffee and donuts to poll workers, and I talked to hundreds of voters.

There was a little high every time someone smiled at us and said, “I voted this morning!”

There was an even bigger high when the pollworkers told us that turnout was double what they normally see.

There was an almost unbeatable high when our state was called for our candidate almost as soon as the polls closed.

But nothing comes close to the feeling we got when, in a roomful of people who’ve worked those same long hours, the screen told us: Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.


READ THE REST (because you love me)

proud to be American. what a weird feeling.

Non-election news?

Mexico's Minister of the Interior was killed in a plane crash yesterday, along with a number of other people. The plane crashed right into traffic in Mexico City, crazy to think about. This is a big deal, the Ministerial position is sort of second only to the president in influence, and the holder of this position definitely has a lot of power. While Mouriño was a pretty controversial figure in Mexico, this is likely a huge blow to the Calderón government.

Victory



Hi guys. I've been up for 23 hours now, and I'm going to get a tiny bit of sleep before work tomorrow morning.

I am delirious, but more importantly, insanely happy and proud of all of us. We did it.

Now the real work begins.

(I can't even type President Barack Obama without my face breaking into a grin. I love this night.)

Wow

Words cannot express what I feel right now.

This is one of the greatest nights of my life. Watching that acceptance speech was amazing. See Jesse Jackson crying in the crowd was incredibly powerful.

And I can't express enough how amazing it is that we just elected an African-American president. In this nation. As a historian who knows way too much about the depths of American racism, I am absolutely amazed that we have reached this point. I'll have more on this tomorrow, but I can't even comprehend this fact. I never thought we would see this in my lifetime, or if we did, it would have to be a Republican.

President Obama. That has one hell of an amazing ring to it.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Finally

Too much emotion.....



........I can't make any phone calls now, presumably because every last person in New York City is calling everybody they know, and the network is flooded.

This is quite possibly the best night of my life, and I can't imagine anything that would rival it (maybe an Indians World Series).

I never thought I'd say this, but I gotta say: Sarah Palin was right.

There will be time down the road to say "but what about...", "what if...", "can we", or "now what."




For now, let's just celebrate, toast the voters, and above all......




toast Barack Obama.

Thank you, Barack. From the deepest part of my heart and soul, thank you.


.......UPDATE: I just saw on TV Jesse Jackson absolutely bawling. Seeing one of the guys who was there when Martin Luther King Jr. was killed seeing this finally was just overwhelming. I'm inexpressably happy for him and all those who fought for civil rights, regardless of the form of the battle or the generation they are a part of.

.....UPDATE II: I wanted to go to Harlem pretty badly (only a few blocks from where I live), but I wanted to see Obama's speech more, so we ended up at a local bar. Honestly, if Obama went on television every night with speeches, I'd watch TV every night.

My wife says the atmosphere here in New York, with people cheering on the streets, smiling, and honking car horns, is like winning the World Cup (and she should know - Brazil does have 5 championships). I joke with her that the difference is that when Brazil wins a World Cup, it doesn't determine if a global power is going to end up getting in more wars or not.

OK - it's relatively late, and the booze has flowed freely tonight (to make up for the despondent drunkenness I had to endure in 2004). This is truly a historic, monumental, amazing night, and with all the potential for hyperbole aside, I can honestly say that for the first time in my life since I was old enough to ask politically pointed questions and be sarcastic and cynical, I actually feel really pretty good about where this country could (not necessarily will - that's up to Obama, now) go.

An awesome, awesome, awesome night. Thanks to all those who helped make this happen (I'm particularly looking in your direction, Sarah.....)

It's Almost Too Easy....

Shorter David Broder: "Obama only won because McCain thanklessly and selflessly decided not to be a secret racist prior to this election."

Verbatim David Broder: "In what history may record as [Obama's] singular achievement -- dealing with the classic American dilemma of race -- he had the largely unappreciated help of his opponent, John McCain, who simply ruled out covert racial appeals used by politicians of both parties in the past."

I look forward to 4-8 years of watching these morons try to pull this crap while Obama can brilliantly snark away.

'Nuff said - there's more coverage to watch, and more beer to drink.

(h/t to Michael Berube).

Some quick notes on Election Day Observations in Southern New Mexico

I arrived at my first polling place at 6am in Las Cruces to watch the opening. Out of 4 poll workers, 1 had had training, and the other 3 had only been called to work the day before. Needless to say, it was a little chaotic, and the polls opened about 15 minutes late. The voters were a little hostile and yelling at the workers, but they finally were able to vote. When a person gets a ballot, they also get a voter permit card that has the ballot number and the voters number on the list of registered voters. At this particular precinct, the poll workers were asking the voter's party identification to write on the permit card as they inserted the ballot into the voting machine. It was obvious the voters were a little taken aback by this, but didn't really question it. It is definitely not allowed to ask a voter's partisanship like this. Very weird.


Most of the precincts I visited throughout Doña Ana County and Las Cruces were very slow, without very much activity. Its not all that surprising because early voting turnout was so high here, but I'll have to see if that was the trend across the county and the state. I've had very little communication with others throughout the day.

The most interesting place I went to was Sunland Park, which is a heavily Latino area next to El Paso. The first precinct we attended had a table of Obama campaign people in front of the polling place handing out sample ballots to voters with all the Democratic candidates filled in so the voters could use the sample ballot as a guide. We saw a number of voters actually use these ballots in the pooling booth. There was also another team of Obama campaign people helping voters find their precinct if they were at the wrong precinct. Unfortunately, in the heavily Spanish-speaking areas we attended, there were a high number of provisional ballots being filled out. I'm not really sure what was going on, but there seemed to be a lot more confusion going on in these precincts in finding the correct voting location. The Republican challenger inside the Sunland Park precinct said he was waiting for a buss load of people to come into the site, so he could go out and start taking down the license plates as a form of intimidation. He said it works, because a lot of voters in the area are scared of people recording information about them. 

In the second precinct in Sunland Park, there was not much going on, but as we were leaving, My colleague and I were harassed by a supposed chairwoman of the New Mexico Democratic Party. She said she had received reports of two men going around precincts asking voters to sign forms and talking to voters, something we were definitely not doing. It was a fairly long ordeal, and I understand her concern. It does demonstrate the level of tension in this community, and two white guys walking around with forms probably looked suspicious to somebody. We had heard stories about the last election from some Obama people of campaigners being arrested by the police, even though they were far enough away from the precinct. 

I'm tired and need a drink.

Burn in Hell Jesse Helms

Jesse Helms is rolling over in his grave. Not only is Barack Obama going to be president of the United States, but Kay Hagan just won his old Senate seat.

Ha!

And the Marathon of Pundit Vacuity Has Begun

Some guy (I have no clue who) on CBS (I don't have cable) just pointed out that, with Liddy Dole's expected loss, this will be the first time in 50 years that there will be nobody named "Dole" or "Bush" holding a public national office. Ladies and gentlemen, we have an early contender for most "so what?" statement of the night.

Consider this an open thread on stupid punditry (or anything else) for the night.

Election Night/Drinking Time

Just opened my first beer, for no other reason than I wanted one.

Here's hoping tonight is a night of toast after toast.....

Hilarious

Roland Martin totally calls out James Carville for demanding that Howard Dean resign over the 50 state strategy.

Carville in return comes across as a petulant asshole and fails to defend his position.

Fuck you Skeletor.

Historical Image of the Day


















2 images today.

I know that everyone is focusing on the 2008 election. But I also know that the election closest to your heart is 1840 when William Henry Harrison beat Martin Van Buren. The parallels to today are so obvious that I am not even going to name them.

From the Campaign

Hi from ward 31 in philly!

I'm sitting in my car because it's raining a bit. My polling place had a line for the first time ever when it opened at 7, and it's already had more people than usually vote there all day--and it's noon. 8 more hours.

It's the same story all over the ward, and in other neighborhoods there are lines around the corner.

Philadelphia is an Obama city, but this ward is Republican. Yet, if you've checked my twitter, you'll see that even the Republican committeeman at this polling place implied he might've voted for Obama.

In other words, things feel really good on the ground.

Don't forget to vote now.

Republicans in the Cabinet?

In what we can expect to be many acts of High Broderism between now and January 20, there has been an outburst of discussion of Republicans in Obama's cabinet.

Why?

Obama has talked enough about bipartisanship that he needs at least one Republican in there. Give someone a minor position. The example here is W in 2001, when he kept Norman Mineta in the cabinet. He could say that he was bipartisan while isolating a respected Democrat in a marginal department.

But of course, pundits and writers are already talking about how Obama needs a Republican in State and/or Defense. Even people I respect are saying these things. Spencer Ackerman is calling for Robert Gates to stay on until Wesley Clark or Anthony Zinni become eligible (by law one cannot be the Secretary of Defense until they have no longer been on-duty for 10 years). More expectedly, John Judis is saying crazy High Broderist things like asking Mitt Romney to lead a bipartisan health care task force, keeping Gates on, and getting Governor Terminator to work on environmental issues.

Um, no.

Part of this election is a rejection of Republican foreign policy. Keeping Robert Gates at Defense? Are you freaking kidding me. Rob points out one reason why this should not happen. Colin Powell at State? After his performance at the UN in 2003? Forget about it. I guess Chuck Hagel isn't terrible but why go there?

Democrats do not need to cede foreign policy and defense matters to the Republicans. One of the refreshing things about policy in this election is that Obama has put together a team of foreign policy people that add up to the first real coherent Democratic stand on the issue other than "no" since the 1960s. We can lead on these issues and we don't need to kow tow to either Republicans or the punditocracy on these matters.

Swiftian

I am proud to have been linked to in the Jon Swift post about why McCain will win the election.

Among the reasons for his sure victory:


Just as Obama Girl couldn’t manage to vote in the primary because she had to wash her hair or something, most young people won’t be able to summon up the energy to get out of bed or stop playing their video games long enough to show up and vote for Obama.

The McCain campaign has finally hit on a strategy that works: scaring the Jews. It’s a sure-fire strategy because jittery Jews are the most easily frightened people on earth. Boo! If you’re Jewish, you probably jumped just reading that last sentence. It really doesn’t take much. All you have to do is insinuate that somebody knows somebody who might possibly be anti-Semitic and Jews will stampede in the other direction.

Palin has had a strange effect on American men. It’s hard to describe the secret of her allure. According to Kathleen Parker, it's why McCain picked her in the first place: "McCain took Palin to his favorite coffee-drinking spot down by a creek and a sycamore tree," she writes. "They talked for more than an hour, and, as Napoleon whispered to Josephine, ‘Voila.’ One does not have to be a psychoanalyst to reckon that McCain was smitten." In The New Yorker Jane Mayer describes how a group of influential conservative men became putty in Palin's hands after they met her on a cruise. Rich Lowry may have articulated it best when he wrote after the debate, "I'm sure I'm not the only male in America who, when Palin dropped her first wink, sat up a little straighter on the couch and said, 'Hey, I think she just winked at me.' And her smile. By the end, when she clearly knew she was doing well, it was so sparkling it was almost mesmerizing. It sent little starbursts through the screen and ricocheting around the living rooms of America." Ultimately, I think many men will end up voting for Palin and her running mate because men tend to think with their hearts more than their brains. When men see Palin, they can’t describe the effect she has on them; they just know their palms get sweaty and hearts start beating faster.

Hilarious.

Dixville Notch

The vote in one town doesn't matter.

However, Dixville Notch, New Hampshire fulfilled its usual role today as the first place to vote in the nation.

In 1988, Bush beat Dukakis in Dixville Notch 34-3. In 2004, W beat Kerry 19-7.

Today, Obama beat McCain 15-6.


If Dixville Notch at all represents shifts among small-town voters, this is going to be a very long night for McSame.

My Brain on Election Day

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Yes, I am totally nonfunctional today.



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If You Haven't Already Voted, What Are You Doing Reading This Blog???!!?!?!?

To echo Sarah, go vote today!!! Be it for Barack Obama, John McCain, Charles "Chuck" Baldwin, Cynthia McKinney, Brian Moore, Ralph Nader, Bob Barr (and his moustache), or somebody else - just please go vote. I know it's cliche, but as somebody who's spent a fair amount of his time reading about dictatorships, voting is something Americans really do take for granted, so get out there and exercise the right our government still hasn't denied us.

And in the anecdotal portion, I spent only a half-hour in line this morning waiting to vote (though it was 7AM), and it went quickly and smoothly (apparently, in New York, we don't vote on ballot initiatives or tax issues or sherriff or anything with the general election - maybe that will come next year with the mayoral and city council elections). There were no problems, everybody seemed to be in a good mood, and some election monitors even showed up to see how things were going. And I realized that this was the first time I ever voted on Election Day (previously having voted absentee in 2000 and early voting in 2004), making today even more exciting.

Anyhow - VOTE!

Monday, November 03, 2008

Counting Absentee Ballots in Albuquerque






Here are some images of the counting of Absentee ballots in Albuquerque from this afternoon. There aren't very good because I was not allowed to take pictures in the actual area where people were working. In the second picture, you can see a bunch of people behind a fence. That is where the four machines that count the absentee ballots are located. The county hopes to finished counting all the ballots tonight, and as you can see, this is a massive operation. 

I've heard from several friends that absentee ballots aren't counted unless the race is close, or that they don't count them until the election is over. I'm not sure these somewhat crummy pictures are convincing evidence that these rumors are false, but they are.

New Mexico's Election Process

(This is long, but I need to make up for not posting in the last several weeks!)

Last week I attended two poll worker training sessions in preparation for some Election Day observations I will be involved in tomorrow. I thought it might be interesting to outline exactly how elections are run here in New Mexico, since I’ve come across a lot of people recently that are not only really skeptical of the election process, but just have no idea what happens. While my training was limited to Bernalillo County (where Albuquerque is located), the process across the state is theoretically similar and the same training materials are used state-wide. The only exception is some minor changes to the process in Albuquerque because of its size. Tomorrow, I will be part of a team observing elections in Doña Ana County, New Mexico, which includes Las Cruces, Hatch, Anthony, and a number of other small towns in Southeastern New Mexico, and I hopefully will be able to do some live blogging about what we are observing and how much the observed process differs from how the election should be run. There will also be teams observing in Albuquerque, Santa Fe, and Farmington, so if anything interesting happens in those areas we will be in touch and I hope to be able to blog about those areas as well.

Background

In New Mexico we have paper ballots where we fill in a bubble for each choice we make. A sample ballot can be seen here. It is a lot like a scan-tron, and after an individual fills in their ballot, it is then fed into the voting machine, called an M-100 Voting Tabulator. The voting machine is nothing more than a big metal box, with a scanner on the top. There is an electronic zip disk (yes, they actually still use zip disks) that includes the code for each precinct inserted into each scanner, which allows the scanner to read the ballot and record the votes correctly. When the machine is turned on, a zero tape is printed out that shows all the counts for each race and ballot question are at zero. When the polls close, another tape is printed out that includes the results for all races and questions.

At each precinct, there is an election board that is made up of a presiding judge, and a number of poll workers. Each election board is supposed to be balanced between Republicans and Democrats. I attended both the presiding judge training, and regular poll worker training.

Prior to Election Day and Opening the Polls

Presiding judges are required to attend a 4-hour training session prior to each election. The training I attended included about 100 people, and I would say about half of them had served before as presiding judges. The training session includes a video presentation of how to set up and take down a precinct, what the voter ID law is in New Mexico, what to do in case of emergencies or problems in the precinct, how to deal with provisional ballots and absentee ballots, and how to use the M-100 voting machine and the automark system, which is a voting assistance machine for those with special needs. There was a wide variety of people at the training, definitely on the older side, but also a lot of people in their 30s and 40s. Poll workers attend a two-hour training that is very similar to the presiding judge training, but since poll workers have less responsibilities than the judges, there is less to cover. Presiding Judges are given a list of the poll workers that will be working at their precinct during the training, and are supposed to be in contact with the poll workers prior to Election Day. It does seem that for the most part, judges and poll workers do not know each other before Election Day, since a lot of people do not actually work in their own precinct.

Much of the training session was taken up by question and answer, and some venting by a lot of the judges. Our voter ID law does not seem to be very popular among the presiding judges and poll workers, so it will be interesting to see how this is applied. (You can read the Voter ID law here. Also the provisional ballot process, which allows anyone to fill out a ballot on election day regardless of registration status or if they are in the correct location, is complicated and seems to be fairly disliked by election workers. Most provisional ballots end up getting thrown out, but it does allow for a more open electoral process and is a good safeguard against inadvertently disenfranchising a voter because of a clerical error or some other problem. It is somewhat of a problem that lot of the judges, and poll workers as well, seem to only grudgingly accept their responsibility to apply the law as it is supposed to be, and will likely mean that the application of Voter ID laws and the allowance for filling out a provisional ballot is not going to be universally applied across New Mexico. But, I’ll get to see this first hand tomorrow, so hopefully I’m wrong!

In the week leading up to the election, county clerks begin delivering the voting machines  and polling booths to each individual precinct. In Bernalillo County, the Sunday before the election, presiding judges pick up the ballots and other administrative materials they need to set up their precinct on Election Day. All of this material is received in a locked ballot box, which they have to bring with them to the precinct. Polls open at 7am, so all judges and poll workers have to show up at 6am to set up the precinct. Setting up the precinct involves setting up tables, putting together the polling booths, turning on the voting machine, and setting up the Automark system. They also are required to post all the typical signs one sees at a precinct on Election Day. No campaigning is allowed within 100 feet of the polls, and the poll workers are required to determine where that designated 100 feet is, and to make sure throughout the day that that barrier is maintained.

Election Day Voting

Once polls open at 7am, voters identify themselves and sign off on the list of registered voters. Poll workers also have a second list that is checked off by a second poll worker, to ensure accuracy and help balance out the number of voters with the number of ballots cast at the end of the day. After a voter has identified themselves, they receive a ballot and a voter permit card. The voter permit card includes the ballot number and the voter’s number on the registration list. Each ballot is numbered, but this portion of the ballot is torn off prior to being given to the voter. The numbering of the ballots and the voter permit cards is necessary in order to make sure ballots are not lost and all ballots are accounted for at the end of the day. As long as the ballot stub with the number is torn off, there is no way to attach a permit card to a ballot after the fact to figure out how any individual person voted. After a person has filled out their ballot, the voter is supposed to put the ballot in the voting machine. Poll workers are allowed to help in inserting the ballot, but only if asked. Once a ballot has been given to a voter, no poll worker is supposed to touch it unless asked for help. This also applies to voters who make a mistake on their ballot and need a new one, those who vote provisionally, and those who fill out an in-lieu-of absentee ballot. However, I’ve heard there is wide variation in how poll workers handle ballots, and it has already happened to one person on our observation team where a spoiled ballot was “disappeared” by a poll worker in an early voting location, even though the voter him or herself is supposed to place it in a special envelope and seal it.

Closing the Polls

Polls close at 7pm. Poll workers are supposed to identify the last person in line who was there by 7pm and allow those still in line to vote. After all votes have been cast, poll workers print out the results from the voting machine, and start breaking down everything that had been set up at the beginning of the day. A number of different results tapes are printed out and mailed to different locations, including the county clerk, the secretary of state, and the district attorney. The results are also supposed to be posted at the precinct in a visible location so voters can come and see how their precinct voted. The ballots are taken out of the M-100 voting machine and placed into a locked ballot box. There are two keys to the ballot box, and once it is locked at the precinct, each key is mailed to a different location and cannot be opened without a court order. Any provisional ballots, in-lieu-of ballots, and absentee ballots that were handed in at a precinct are not supposed to be placed in the ballot box, but in previous elections they were, which really delayed the election process in New Mexico because a number of court orders were required to open up ballot boxes. In the trainings, the trainers really stressed not to put anything in the ballot box besides ballots from the M-100, so hopefully it is less of a problem this time around.

Throughout the day, there may be a number of ballots that were unreadable by the M-100. In some cases, voters made a mistake on their ballot and voted twice for a single race, and so the machine rejected the ballot. Voters are allowed to fill out a new ballot if they want to, but in some instances they refuse. These ballots are placed in a special slot in the M-100 machine and have to be hand-counted at the end of the night after the polls close. In this election, the hand-counting tally sheets are six pages long. Hand-counting ballots is extremely time consuming and much less accurate than machine counting. However, these ballots are counted at the precinct, and the results of any hand-counted ballots are delivered to the county clerk on election night as well. (They are, however, not posted at the precinct along with the machine results).

After the polls have been closed, the machine turned off, and all ballots counted, the poll workers have to balance out the number of voter signatures on the registration list, double-check it against the second registration list, and make sure the number of voters matches the number of ballots counted by the machine, plus hand-counted ballots. They also have make sure the number of voter permit cards matches the number of voters and ballots. Any remaining unused ballots are to be destroyed on site, after the numbered stubs are removed. The ballot stubs are saved to account for all ballots that were provided to each precinct. The poll worker trainings really did not emphasize saving the ballot stubs, and the printed training materials do not mention retaining these stubs. It is an important part of the process to make sure ballots do not end up missing.

The presiding judge is then required to take the ballots to the county clerk, where all the paperwork is checked over by county clerk employees to make sure everything is in order. In Albuquerque, there are drop zones across the city where judges take the ballots, but I think in most other places, the ballots are returned to one central location where the ballots are stored.

Feel free to ask questions in the comments, I'm sure I left out a lot!

 

Election Season Anecdote and the Future of the GOP

Saturday afternoon, I went down to our local grocery store (a very fine store that has been family-owned in Redlands for generations). I parked my car, and was locking the door when a middle-aged white guy in one of those dreadful Scion breadbox cars was inching past me in the lot. It was a very pleasant afternoon in Southern California, so he had his window down. Said middle-aged white guy must have seen the Obama sticker on my car, because he looked at me and proceeded to instruct me to be a "real American" and vote McCain-Palin. I was taken aback and asked him to repeat himself, thinking that I had misheard him. I thought he could have been making a joke, so I smiled. He was not, in fact, joking. He got rather angry and said something about not being patriotic and that no real American would vote for Obama.

Many of you that know me can attest to the fact that I am not a violent (or even angry) person. Unfortunately, I was so angry I could only come up with the cursory, highly uncreative "fuck you" response, but the guy kept yammering on. Finally, I walked closer to car and told him to get out of the car and say it all again. He told me to fuck off and called me a "fag" and drove out of the parking lot.

Seriously? What happened to reasonable Republicans? I know they are out there, but the most vocal wing of their party is really ruining that party's party, so to speak. We've seen the hateful, disgusting speech and actions at the McCain rallies, the public recognition that ensuring all Florida voters get to vote will be McCain's undoing in the state, and public pining for the Bradley Effect by McCain surrogates.
Politics are ugly, and there are certainly over-the-top Obama people out there-- but come on. This incarnation of the GOP-- this "win-at-all-costs", "backs against the wall" kind-- this could end up being worse than the Bush GOP, and I shudder to think of what a Palin-led GOP would look like in the future.

Is it Tuesday yet? Maybe then I can go to the grocery store without being hassled.

Election Predictions

With a day to go, here are my election predictions:

Obama 356
McCain 182

Of the contested states, I have Obama winning Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and in a bit of a surprise, North Dakota. There hasn't been a lot of polling of North Dakota but what there is suggests a real chance for an Obama win.

I do have McCain holding on by tight margins in Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Indiana, and Georgia. I don't think West Virginia will be particularly close at all.

Senate: Democrats pick up 8 seats. I do think Franken will seal the deal in Minnesota although it is hard to say.

I also think that Saxby Chambliss will win a plurality but fail to win 50%, forcing a runoff against Jim Martin in December, a race that will be for the 60th Democratic seat.

I really don't see the Kentucky or Mississippi races falling our way.

House:

Democrats pick up 23 seats. I don't necessarily buy the huge gains some are hoping for. People seem to be relatively satisfied with their own representative, even as they hate Congress as a whole. There will be some gains, but not overwhelming.

Liveblogging the Election

To build on Sarah's post below, I'll probably be liveblogging the election obsessively as I freak out not only about the presidential race but also every Senate and House race. And probably a bunch of ballot measures around the country and local Texas races.

So I hope you'll join me in comments.

I'll probably try to play around with all this new-fangled technology Sarah is talking about too, both to see what she is saying and to try and comprehend what the kids are up to these days.

Historical Image of the Day


George W. Bush signing the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001.

In case you needed another reminder of why Republicans suck.

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Election Time!

I don't think that anyone who reads this blog needs a reminder to vote on Tuesday, if you haven't already, but just in case you need one: DO IT.

I probably won't be updating much because I'll be out knocking on doors and hanging out at the polls watching for shenanigans. I hope you'll be doing the same. Especially if you're a lawyer or legal type. They always need more people to ensure people can vote.

Also, go download Greg Palast's "Steal Back Your Vote" investigative comic, because Palast is my hero and protecting our democracy is both his and my passion.

I'll try to toss things up on Tumblr as they happen, and no doubt will be twittering.

If there was still any doubt about Palin’s cluelessness...

It’s ironic that after all her disastrous interviews, and catastrophic media appearances, it takes a prank phone call three days prior to Election day to rub in the fact that Sarah Palin is absolutely clueless about everything.

If you haven’t seen the youtube video of a prank call made to Palin by a Canadian comedian pretending to be French president Nicolas Sarkozy, you must.

Setting aside the fact that Palin’s staff was careless enough to put this call through (as Biden said, the same people who failed to vet Palin failed to vet this phone call), the 6-minute video is riddled with traps, ALL of which Palin fell for.

When the comedian refers to singer, Steph Carse as the Prime Minister of Canada, Palin nods along. She clearly does not know that it is Stephen Harper who is the Prime Minister of one of the countries that borders the state of which she is the executive (note that Canada abutting Alaska is part of her claim to foreign policy experience – along with being able to see Russia from her house).

When the comedian asks her about the PM of Quebec, “Mr. Richard Serroi” who is “so next to him,” Palin acknowledges that she has enjoyed working with Candian officials – Canadian officials, whose names she is curiously unaware of. Serroi is a radio personality in Quebec, a Canadian province that is nowhere near Alaska, and whose head of state is Premier Jean Charest.

Palin also seems totally unaware of jabs such as the fake Sarkozy’s statement that he could see Belgium from his house, and is curiously nonchalant to his admission that his wife is hot in bed!

In addition to being appalled at her ignorance, I find it disturbing that she laughs – almost callously - at the prankster’s clearly sarcastic remark about his love of killing animals.

"I just love killing those animals. Mmm, mmm, take away life, that is so fun," he says, and Palin snickers.

Besides all of that, how do you not know that the President of France wouldn’t just decide to pick up the phone and make small talk with a likely (god forbid) veep candidate in the US?

The McCain camp, of course, had to put a positive spin on this gaffe as well. "Governor Palin was mildly amused to learn that she had joined the ranks of heads of state, including President Sarkozy and other celebrities, in being targeted by these pranksters. C'est la vie," Palin campaign spokeswoman, Tracey Schmitt said.

That Palin is a national joke was obvious before this. That she enjoys being a national joke is clear now.

Saturday, November 01, 2008

Obama and the Democratic Congress

I pretty much disagree with Matt Bai's article about Obama not being able to control a Democratic Congress. He writes:

If recent history is any guide, however, Obama would need more than raw numbers in his favor. Congressional majorities are, in fact, a lot like corporate profits; they exist on paper, but that doesn’t mean they’re actually there when you need them. Carter, a reformer who won in an equally anti-Republican year, inherited a 23-seat majority in the Senate and a 149-seat advantage in the House — and accomplished little. Working with a narrower majority, Clinton barely passed a budget and then failed to win approval for his health care plan before losing Congress altogether. George W. Bush saw his one-seat Senate majority disappear almost immediately when a member of his own party, Jim Jeffords, defected.

The problem for all three presidents was, in a sense, more cultural than ideological. Carter, Clinton and Bush were all former governors who had not spent enough time in Washington to take the subway without a map; they were of the same parties as their Congressional allies but not of the same club. Each arrived in Washington assuming he’d earned the right to dictate the governing agenda to his party’s leaders, and each soon learned that entrenched Congressional chairmen aren’t especially impressed by inaugural balls. Such outsider presidents tend to display a remarkable indifference to the electoral needs and insecurities that can lead legislators to abandon a president of their own party. In retrospect, for instance, it’s hard to imagine why Clinton pursued a vote on his anti-crime bill, which included new restrictions on handguns, in August 1994, just three months before a lot of Southern and Western Democrats had to face the voters in their districts. A lot of them lost at least partly as a result, and the lesson that Congressional Democrats took away was that Clinton’s vaunted political instincts didn’t extend to helping them.


The problem with this analysis is that it is a facile look at the past. There is a huge difference between Carter and Clinton on the one hand and Obama on the other. Carter and Clinton had Democratic majorities, but those majorities had significant numbers of old-style southern Democrats in them. The realignment of 1980-1994 essentially eliminated those seats. Today, almost all Democrats agree with the central agenda of the party. Bai is someone aware of this but says that the tide of Democrats is likely to bring in more conservative members. To some extent, this may be true. I'm sure that there will be a couple more Heath Shuler types in the House. But who in the Senate fits this description? Democrats are going to win at least 7 Senate seats and I can't think of one of these people who is a conservative. Kay Hagan? Maybe. That's it.

That's not to say that Obama won't have problems setting the agenda. But I think the structural problem that Bai bases his history on has largely disappeared.

Meet an Asshat: Texas Edition

I'm stealing AnthonyS' post title for this.

Sometimes you just run into asshats. The other day, I was eating lunch in my school cafeteria. I sit down in a booth with my New Yorker, ready to have a quiet lunch. But my attention is quickly captured by the booth next to me. In it were two frat jerkoffs and a middle-aged guy in a suit. At a small school like this, you at least know what everyone in administration looks like. So I knew this was not an administrator. Then I overhear this guy talking to the frat daddies about politics in a very insider way, discussing staffing and things like this. And I realize, this guy is a fucking congressman! I knew there was no way he wasn't a Republican, not sitting with these tools.

So I thought, who is this asshat? I thought for a minute that it might be my own asshat, John Carter. Carter is a real schmuck. I mean a real piece of crap. Exactly what you expect from a Republican congressman. But I thought he was older than this dude sitting next to me. I get back to the office and look up Carter and sure enough it was not him. Then I start playing around on the school website. Turns out that the asshat sitting next to me was Pete Sessions, Republican congressman from Dallas, who was speaking at Southwestern the next day. He's also an alumni of Southwestern, continuing our legacy of producing dickhead Republican politicians, of which John Tower is the most famous.

Sessions is a real piece of work. He's an energy freak and a core member of the Drill Baby Drill caucus. A tool for the oil industry, he's prefect for suburban white Texas. He's also a shill for the chemical industry, having introduced a number of bills looking to eliminate duties on chemical additives. The group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington also named Sessions of the 20 most corrupt congressmen in 2006. He is close to Jack Abramoff and in 2007 held a fundraiser in a Las Vegas strip club.

Class all the way here my friends.

What is really entertaining though is that Sessions comes from a whole family of asshats. His dad is William Sessions, who some of you might remember, was head of the FBI before Bill Clinton canned him for financial improprieties, including charging his home security system to the taxpayers and using a government airplane to fly to see his daughter.

I know I am supposed to be civil and all. But I can't actually see important Republicans without seething to the point of violence. I really can't stand them. I once quit a temp job I had because New Mexico Republican congresswoman Heather Wilson was showing up the next day to. promote the place as a model for privatized health care. Fearful that I would lunge at her with a pair of scissors, I quit. Likewise, I wanted to beat the living shit out of Sessions, just for polluting my lunch. I know this is bad. But these people are just so evil.

Interestingly though, Sessions admitted to the frat dudes he was with that the Republicans were going to lose 15 seats. I wonder how close to the mark he is. He was also fretting about employing all the staffers who are losing their jobs, much to the chagrin of the frat guys who were wanting jobs.

The Lamest Movie Recommendation Ever

I went and saw Charlie Kaufman's new film, Synecdoche, New York, last night, and I can unqualifiedly say that it is amazing, beautiful, mind-boggling, and everybody (or at least everybody who reads this blog) should go see it. I can't think of a film that ever appealed so directly to me and issues I've been dealing with personally before, and that has kept me thinking for anything more than 3 hours after I saw it (I'm still only now digesting and wrestling with portions of the film).

That said, there are so many parts of the film that I can't explain or figure out, with no clue sometimes what Kaufman was trying to do, that I'm rather puzzled. What's more, it's one of those films that strikes me as almost impossible to do justice in trying to explain it. So just trust me on this - everybody should go see this movie. It may be Kaufman's best (and strangest) work to date, up there if not better than Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

Historical Image of the Day


Daddy Grace, founder of the United House of Prayer for All People, a revivalist (cult one might say) church that appealed to poor urban African-Americans in the early to mid 20th century.

He was also an early pioneer in the Sun Ra school of fashion.

Does Darren White Shave His Legs?


Not that it really matters I guess. But I certainly wouldn't expect it from the Bernalillo County sheriff who is running as a Republican to replace Heather Wilson in my old New Mexico district. White is the definition of Republican jerk and is about to have his hat handed to him by Martin Heinrich.

Over at Daily Kos, they put this picture up to highlight his ankle tattoo of Reagan's signature. Which is really creepy. And then I looked closer and saw a very smooth looking leg there.

Channeling Hunter S. Thompson

The McCain campaign, in its last throes, has proven itself to be nothing more than the last stinking gasp of the Right for power.

McCain has no message. He simply has people onstage ranting about "the gay" and dropping Muslim names in the vain hope that one will stick enough to carry him into the White House on a tide of fear, blood, and KKK robes. He has cobbled together a campaign from the worst bits of the Bush folks and the lobbyists who he claims to shun, picked a running mate out of a hat because she had a vagina, a special needs baby, and looked good chanting "Drill, baby, drill" in front of a crowd.

He's latched onto Joe the Plumber, a guy so grasping that he's already got a PR agent and is standing McCain up at rallies, to buy him some desperately needed working class cred after forgetting how many homes he had and after his party spent twice as much as most people make in a year on his running mate's wardrobe. Yet Joe the Plumber is just as phony as McCain.

McCain's doing worse than Bush for three reasons. One is obvious. The economy is crashing around us, and there's been a Republican in the White House for the past 8 years. Hell, McCain was running ahead of his brand for a while, until the real crisis hit.

Two is that during the debates, when Obama's numbers really started to rise, McCain looked petulant and sounded condescending and even rude. Americans might want a president they can relate to, but they damn sure don't want one who talks to 'em like they're stupid.

Three is, of course, that McCain has no message. He sold his soul, the one that used to win grudging respect from even the hardest lefties, in the past four years, caving on torture, on troops, on taxes. He has gone from being a soft-line pro-lifer to holding up Justice Alito as a paragon of virtue, gone from a man who lost a primary himself because of race-baiting and fear to a man who uses it and defends it.

I can't even begin to imagine what a McCain administration would actually look like, other than a full-on charge of all the worst elements in the Republican party--because even more so than Bush, that'll be who got him elected. The man that many Americans used to respect for standing up to his party will owe more to the racists, the homophobes, the Islamophobes, the pro-birth crowd, than any administration before him.

Nixon claimed that he governed because of a "silent majority." Reagan won over Democrats left and right with his charm. Even George W. Bush promised to be a "compassionate conservative" (though even now he's trying to sneak through more deregulation while our backs are turned).

McCain has promised us no such thing. He's shown us the America that he thinks he governs, and it's full of people who will lie about being assaulted by a black man, people who think having an Arabic middle name is reason to be lynched, and people who will never see a terrorist attack but who are more afraid of one than of what will happen when they can't afford health insurance because they've suddenly got to pay taxes on it.

Obama has run ad after ad based on his plan, including the other night's 30 minute ad buy. You might not agree with all of it, but it is out there for you to hear, for you to read. He has offered a vision of a country where we don't divide ourselves by red and blue, and he has won over states that no Democrat has dreamed of in decades. He has had no ethical scandals, no personal scandals, no steps out of line. He won all three debates.

Let's face it, if you vote for McCain now, you deserve what you get.

And it might feel like getting fucked with chainsaws.

(Cross-posted)

Also, I wrote something about the Obama infomercial for GlobalComment, if you're interested.